UFC on Versus

I never give myself enough time to write a good thorough analysis, so as usual, here are my bets like 2 hours before the event starts:

I just have one.

Pat Barry(-200) vs Stefan Struve: 2 units to win 1 unit.

Enjoy the fights!

-The Wise Guy

UFC 135 Bones Jones vs Rampage Jackson

I had a nice long write-up all done and then my computer crashed and lost it all.

So now I have to leave, and I will just write down the bets

Koscheck(-415) vs Matt Hughes: 5 units to win 1.21 units

Aaron Riley(+275) vs Tony Fergusson: .5 units to win 1.38 units

Takanori Gomi (+200) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win 1 unit

That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.


-The Wise Guy

UFC Fight Night Quick picks

my bets:

My anchor bet is Alan Belcher. even at -265 I think he has value. I don't see how MacDonald can win. Belcher will starch him in the standup, had decent takedown defense, and is himself a brown belt in BJJ. It will be a long night for macdonald.

Alan Belcher(-265) vs Jason MacDonald: 3 units to win 1.13

Also, I have 1 unit on Brookins over Koch.

I think Shields will win the main event, but the chance for Ellengerger to win a LNP decision is there, so I stayed away. Still, at only around -200 I think shields has value.



-The wise guy

Strikeforce Heavyweight Tournament - Semifinals

The only fight i have action on for this one is Silva over Cormier. Cormier is wildly undersized against bigfoot who is a literal giant (afflicted with acromegaly, or giantism). He is also a BJJ Black belt and a competent striker. I have the striking about even, and big foot can probably threaten from his back, or even sweep. It is hard to sweep a great wrestler like Cormier, but being so much bigger will help a lot. It will also cause Cormier to work a lot harder to control Silva and maybe tire out. This is a big jump up in competition for Cormier, and at only -160 I think its a decent play on Bigfoot here.

Antonio Silva(-160) vs Daniel Cormier: 2 units to win 1.25 units

I also have prop bets that either Silva(+175) or Barnett(+150) will ultimately win the tournament. 1 unit on each.

As far as Barnett's current fight with Sergei, I can't recommend a bet on Barnett. Not at the current odds. He should win, but there is just not enough value there.

Same with Souza. No reason to take him at -425, even though he will most likely win.

I see the Gracie/king mo fight as a 50/50, so I wouldn't begrudge a small play on gracie at his current underdog odds of +150. Personally though I am sitting it out.

That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 134 results

Seems I was wrong to have any doubts on Silva's destruction of Okami. Although I am not sure what Okami's gameplan was. He seemed to choke, and lost without having attempted a SINGLE legit takedown. Very strange.

I was also wrong on the Forrest fight. It happens.

I was super stoked to see Nogueira win though. And he looked good too. I remarked to a friend right before the fight that Nog always had solid boxing, but his head movement just sucked. And his chin can no longer withstand the take-one-to-give-one strategy. Well, the he comes out ducking and weaving like Anderson Silva, using great head movement. That made the difference in this fight. So happy to see him win.

Obviously we were on the right side of the line with Pearson. At +260 he takes it to a split decision. So while he didn't actually win, he was definitely undervalued and it was a good bet.

We did win our over bet for that one, as both guys were tough, and as I predicted lasted the whole 3 rounds.

We lost on the Thiago under though, and i can't help but think he could have been more aggressive and finished him. oh well.

Rousimar came through as expected, but it seems like he can't go a single fight without some kind of controversy. He started celebrating before the ref had actually stopped the fight. Strange. Still, he dominated Miller for 3 rounds and brought us a W.

We ended up slightly down for the night, but not huge. Til next time.

- The Wise Guy

UFC 134 - Breakdown and betting picks

Anderson Silva vs Yushin Okami

This fight all boils down to one issue: can Okami do what Chael sonnen did? My answer is, I don't think so. Okami has much better submission defense, and I don't think he will be getting submitted, but he is not nearly as aggressive with his takedowns as Sonnen. I think for sure he will get some takedowns, but he isn't known for crushing GNP either. Anderson is tough, and I think Okami will have to absorb a lot of punishment to be able to get this fight down, and not be able to dish out as much when he gets it there. At -525 though, I don't see a ton of value on Anderson. and Even at +375 I don't really like okami. So for me if you want action on this fight, take the under at -200. Anderson has finished all of his fights when he feels like actually fighting, and I think being in Brazil will fire him up enough to do it here. The Sonnen fight has me spooked though, so I'm sitting this one out.

Forrest Griffin vs Shogun Rua

I honestly think Forrest is being undervalued in this fight. Big time. In fact, he is my straight-up pick to win. He is bigger, a better wrestler, and has very underrated submissions. His standup is very good as well. He has been caught a couple times, but the only time he has really been outworked in the standup was in the Silva fight. If he fights smart I think this could look similar to the Rich Franklin fight where he can out muscle him.

Whether or not you actually think Forrest will win or not, the odds are off. Only a plan on Forrest is warranted here. If you just can't stomach that, try the over. At -145 it is a great deal for an over with 2 fighters that are known for being durable and tough to finish. I'm putting my money on forrest though. Too good to pass up at these odds. I recommend a smallish play on Forrest to win, or on the over.

My bet: Forrest Griffin (+190): 1.5 units to win 2.85 units


Brendan Schaub vs Big Nog

I am a huge fan of Big Nog, but I can't help but think he is gonna get finished again in this fight. He is coming back from hip replacement surgery for crying out loud, and had to have physical therapy just to walk again. I think this will look a lot like the Mir fight. I do think Schaub will win, but I don't know, I just have an uneasy feeling about this fight. Nog is crafty. Still, I have no logical reason to say why you shouldn't take Schaub at -250, so I have to tentatively recommend a play here.


Ross Pearson vs Edson Barboza

This should be an exciting facepaced fight against two strikers. I think this is a step up for barboza. In this fight again I am going for the over. Its at basically even odds, and these are both durable fighters, and in the lightweight division we see less knockouts anyway.

UPDATE: at +260, you GOTTA have some action on Pearson here. These odds are wack.

Ross Pearson vs Edson Barboza: .5 units to win 1.3 units

Pearson vs Barboza, The Over (-105): 1.05 units to win 1 unit


I also am taking the under in the Paulo Thiago/ Mitchell fight. I honestly don't know too much about Mitchell, but there is a big disparity in the lines. Thiago is a -400 favorite, but the under is actually paying DOG odds. One of those is bogus. I'm betting the its the under. You can't be a -400 favorite over somebody without having a decent chance of finishing them within the distance, so I am making a small play here.

Thiago/mitchell The Under(+155): 1 unit to win 1.55 units


My Anchor bet for the evening is Rousimar Palhares over Dan Miller. Miller is a very solid fighter I just don't think he is dangerous enough to a guy like Palhares. He isn't going to control him with grappling, he isn't going to submit him, and he hasn't shown to have real knockout power really either. And there is always a chance Palhares will tear some ligaments. Man if there is one guy I would be afraid to fight, its him.

Rousimar Palhares(-285) vs Dan Miller: 3 units to win 1.05 units


UPDATE: I also think you can't pass up Spencer Fisher at +165. His wrestling defense could be a problem, but Thiago tavares has wilted against opponents who he can't put away and who keep coming at him. Spencer fisher is one of those guys. He will always keep fighting, end even if he is solidly controlled in the first round (which I think he will be) he will discourage Tavares when he still comes out to fight for the next two rounds. He has a great gas tank too, and I don't think tavares does.

Spencer Fisher(+165) vs Thiago Tavares: .5 units to win .825 units.


That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.

UFC on versus

Just got back from out of town, So I have to make this quick:

my play for the evening is Jim Miller(-150) vs Ben Henderson: 2 units to win 1.33 units

That's all for now. Sorry I didn't get to post analysis of any of the fights. I had a bet on strikeforce challengers that I won too, but I didn't have a chance to post if before the event. I'll talk more about that later. Later.

- The Wise Guy

UFC 133 - Rashad Evens vs Tito Ortiz

Tonight my action is 3 bets on 3 substantial dogs, because I believe they are undervalued, and I feel at least one of them will come through for me. Which will make me positive for the evening.

Tito has shown he can hang with Rashad, and would have actually beaten him last time if not for the point deduction. That being said, that was a LONG time ago, 4 years actually. Rashad has come a long way while Tito has basically stagnated. Rashad is rightly the favorite, but I think he is too big of a favorite.

I really doubt he is going to be finishing Tito. Tito has been losing a lot, but he has not been dominated. And most of Rashad's improvements have come in his standup, which was already better than tito. The question will be if he can stay on his feet and stop Tito from being on top. If Tito can get on top for a decent amount of time, he can win this fight. He is much bigger than Rashad as well. at nearly +350 Tito is the only bet here, especially considering his last fight.
My bet:

Tito Ortiz (+335) vs Rashad Evans: .5 units to win 1.68 units

If you don't think Tito will win at all, but don't like the odds on Rashad, consider the over bet. This fight has a high chance of going the distance, so -230 isn't bad.

My other bets are

Mike Pyle (+215) vs Rory MacDonald - .5 units to win 1.08 units
Rani Yahya (+435) vs Chad Mendes - .25 units to win 1.09 units

Both of these fighters are at least slightly undervalued, IMO, and have styles such that they have a clear path to a possible victory, however unlikely. I structured my bets so that I only need one of these three bets to come through for me to be positive for the night. and even if all three fail I am only out 1.25 units.

other bets to consider:

Gustaffson at -160 over Hammil. I think he matches up well and has good takedown defense. I just haven't seen him fight the same level of opponents that Hammil has been facing.

The over on Tito/rashad at -230

Hendricks/ Pierce over at -240.

That's all for now. Enjoy!


-The Wise Guy

Strikeforce - Fedor vs Henderson

I don't have a lot of time so I'll make this quick:

Fedor is still a highly skilled fighter, and very well rounded. However, after ending a few fights with a big overhand right, that seems to be ALL he does now. Well, 2 can play at that game, and Henderson is another who has had a lot of success with that. I still think Fedor should be a slight favorite, but Henderson at +220 right now doesn't make any sense. He is undervalued. I hope Fedor wins, but Dan is not a pushover fight, so at these odds, and considering each fighter's recent history, only a bet on Hendo makes sense here.

Dan Henderson(+220) vs Fedor Emelianenko: .5 units to win 1.1 units


Next up is Meisha "Rumblebum" Tate vs Marloes Coenen. I think this fight will play out a lot like Coenen's last fight, except that I think Tate will be better at avoiding submissions from the top, and will take home the unanimous decision. I don't think she will be finishing Marloes. I got her a couple weeks ago at odds even better than are available now. I think she is about even now.

Meisha Tate(+125) vs Marloes Coenen: 3 units to win 3.75

Should be a good card. Fights with Lawler, Daley, and Smith mean we could be seeing some dramatic finishes! Don't miss it.


- The Wise Guy

UFC 132 Results

This ended up being a really great card, and not just because we came out ahead. There were a bunch of dramatic first round finishes, and even the fights that went to decision were exciting wars. Basically everything you could ask for in a UFC card.

My anchor bet on Siver came through, but I was nervous. I am glad the judges saw it that way, and not just because of my bet. When one fighter is doing nothing but ATTEMPTING takedowns, and the other fighter is defended AND attacking with strikes at every opportunity, the latter fighter should win. If all that happens in a round is one fighter attempting takedowns, and the other defends them, then that round should be a draw. Too often they score it for the person attempting the takedowns, even if they don't get them. The judges CAN score rounds a draw, but they never do. I think justice was served, and Siver was rewarded for actually fighting.

+ 1.54 units.

Tito came through in a big way. Glad to see him get the win. Doubly glad because I had action on him! Yeah not much, but his crazy +400 line made even that small bet a good full unit return. I don't think Tito will ever again get near the title, but hopefully he can string together a couple wins and go out on top. He never really lost a step, everybody else just got really really good.

+1 unit.

The Tavares/Simpson fight was very frustrating, and a great example of the judging issue I talked about earlier. I love watching good wrestlers bust out timely takedowns, and dominating top control, but I can't stand this new standing version of lay-n-pray against the fence. Maybe we'll call it press-n-guess. Tavares was battering Simpson on the feet, and all Simpson did was push him against the cage. Oh well. We were definitely on the right side of the line Tavares showed excellent takedown defense, and I think that if he had shown a little better fight IQ and spun off the fence and broke contact at every opportunity, he could have actually won.

-.5 units


I was as sad as anybody to see Wanderlei lose, especially in that fashion, but I wasn't surprised. As I stated in my pre-event post, their styles are similar but Leben''s chin would win out. And that's exactly what happened.

+ .7 units

Overall Event Results:

Dennis Siver(-130) vs Matt Wiman: + 1.54 units
Chris Leben(+145) vs Wanderlei Silva: + .7 units
Tito Ortiz(+400) vs Ryan Bader: + 1 unit
Brad Tavares(+195) vs Aaron Simpson: - .5 units

Overall: 3-1, +2.74 units


I've got some more bets coming up for the next strikeforce card, so keep checking back.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 132 Betting Picks and Analysis

I have action on 4 fights this time, which is more than usual.

First the, anchor bet of the evening:

Dennis Siver(-130) vs Matt Wiman: 2 units to win 1.54 units

I think this will be similar to Siver's fight with Sotiropolous. I think Wiman probably has better wrestling, so he will probably have better success getting the fight down occasionally, but I don't think he has the top control to keep Siver there. His Standup is good, but I think Siver's is better.

Next up are my more speculative bets:

Chris Leben(+145) vs Wanderlei Silva: .5 units to win .7 units

Both of these guys have a similar style, but I think Leben's chin wins out over Wanderlei's at this stage of the game.

Tito Ortiz(+400) vs Ryan Bader: .25 units to win 1 unit

Honestly, I think Tito loses this fight. Sadly I think he is pretty much done. Which is unfortunate, because I have grown to like him. That being said, he has never been dominated, and even in his string of losses over the past several years, he has shown that he is no pushover; still top level, just not quite good enough. +400 is too good for a fighter like tito, in a fight he will be motivated to win, against an opponent who may be rattled or fight scared in his return fight after suffering his first real loss in dominating fashion. It's a small speculative bet, nothing more.

Brad Tavares(+195) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win .976 units

No in depth analysis here; I just think Tavares is being undervalued. He hits hard enough to do what Leben did to Simpson, and He will no doubt be working his takedown defense for this fight. I think he's a live dog here.

Overall for UFC 132: Risking 3.25 units to win 4.216 units

Should be an entertaining night of fights. Here's to continuing our streak of positive events!


-The Wise Guy

RESULTS

Wow, The Barry/ Kongo fight was crazy. I was mere seconds away from cashing in on that one too, when WHAM! Unreal. At least I know I was on the right side of the line with that fight. Both fights actually, with Matt Brown coming through for us in his fight.

As I suspected, both fighters were undervalued, and they almost both won. At least one did, and kept the night positive for us.

In the end, we finished the night +.53 units. Not much, but every positive event just grows our bankroll. On to the next one!

- The Wise Guy

UFC on versus

Its only a few hours before the fights, but I have some last minute action:

Pat Barry(+195) vs Cheick Kongo: .5 units to win .975
Matt Brown(+205) vs John Howard: .5 units to win 1.025

I think both of these fighters are being undervalued in their fights, and only one of them needs to win for the night to be positive.

Pat Barry's flaw has been his one-dimensional skill set. That skill set though, his standup, is very good. And up against somebody who is likely to stand with him, his chances are decent.

Matt Brown has should himself to be a dangerous and relatively well-rounded, and is a live dog. That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.

- The Wise Guy

UFC 131 Results

We went 1-1 on our bets and ended the night +1.17 units. I am happy with that for sure. Any positive event is a solid one.

The Main event went mostly how I predicted, except it went the distance, which was very shocking to me. Both fighters were beign VERY cautious, and that is the main reason. JDS still put on a boxing clinic, and even threw in some takedowns in the third round. Easily won all three rounds with superior technique.

In the Florian fight, it seems like we were on the right side of the line, even though Florian won handily. Nunes was never out of the fight, and even won the first round. His cardio failed him, but otherwise he put up a fight. I am glad to see Florian get the W though, and it seems a title shot is next up for him, and he'll have his work cut out for him.

I'm glad I didn't put anything on Maia or Edwards, but at least they were exciting fights, as was the whole card for the most part. The judging needs serious work, as there were many fights scored 30-27 when the losing fighter OBVIOUSLY won one round. Nunes/Florian was one example.

Over all a good night of fights. Can't wait for the next one!



- The Wise Guy

UFC 131

First of all, as you know Clay Guida came through for us last weekend BOOYAH! Of Course he did.

+3.8 Units: BOOK IT.

Now on to UFC 131,

In the main event we have Junior Dos Santos vs Shane Carwin. I have never been so sure a fight would not go the distance. Both are huge dudes with huge power. The only areas where carwin has an advantage in my mind is wrestling. Probably punching power too, but JDS certainly has enough power to knock out carwin, he just might not have the Dim Mak death touch KO power that Carwin seems to have. JDS better technical striking, more diverse striking( Has Carwin EVER thrown a kick?), way better cardio, and his Jiu jitsu is going to be fine. We haven't gotten to see his takedown defense tested yet, but I imagine he has been training that very hard for the past few weeks. The way I see it, unless Carwin finishes this in the first round, Dos Santos is going to win. I think JDS will be ready for a first round barrage, and will outwork Carwin with speed, footwork, technical strikes, and will pepper him with shots from the outside while circling to avoid the take down. Expect copious uppercuts to thwart the takedown attempts, as we saw in his fight against Roy Nelson. By the second round I think Carwin will have slowed significantly, maybe not as bad as in the Brock fight, but it will still be noticeable) and at that point JDS's technique advantage will become even more apparent. It is very likely that Carwin is planning to take it a little slower in the first round to make sure there isn't a repeat of the Lesnar fight. This will make it even MORE likely that JDS's technique will shine through, as I think they only way for him to win is a gong-n-dash style barrage attack where he forces JDS to brawl .

Carwin HAS to get the knockout to win, JDS doesn't. I don't see Carwin having the gas to win a 3-round top control decision. so he either finishes it early, or JDS wins. JDS ALSO has the ability to finish it early however. I think this weighs the fight in favor of JDS.

JDS(-180) vs Shane Carwin: 3 units to win 1.67 units

My other bet for the card is a small dog bet on Nunes over Florian. I think Florian will win, but for being such a fast, successful, aggressive, fighter, I think he is being undervalued. Especially when considering this is Florian's first fight at featherweight. Nunes showed the ability to stop Mike Brown's takedowns, so if he can do the same to Florian I think he stands a solid chance in a standup war; more than the bookies are giving him anyway. I am a huge Florian fan and really hope he wins, but I am not going to pass up value when I see it. This way I can't lose! either Florian wins, and I'm happy, or he loses and at least I get an extra unit to soften the pain.

Diego Nunes(+240)vs Kenny Florian: .5 units to win 1.2 units


I'm rooting for Maia in his fight against Munoz, but for the life of me I just can't decide how the fight is going to go. It depends on a lot of things we just won't know until fight time. How good has Maia's standup gotten, will he be able to take it to the ground at all, will Munoz go for any takedowns of his own, can Maia pin him against the cage, etc. Should be an interesting fight. Close odds, so worth a bet if you think you have a clear vision of how this fight will go.

I like Eves Edwards over Stout. As a slight dog Edwards has value there. Other than that, I don't see any other lines worth jumping on. I do see a lot of exciting fights! Should be a good card!

-The Wise Guy

Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale

CLAY GUIDA! He is one of my favorite fighters, and I can't wait to see him in action once again tonight. He doesn't get any easy fights, and tonight is no exception, seeing him face off against the last WEC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis.

Shockingly to me, Pettis is coming in at about a -240 favorite against Guida. Yes his record is better than Guida's, but he hasn't been facing the same level of competition either. If his record had included fights with Gomi, Florian, Diaz, Danzig, Griffin, etc, He would most likely have a couple losses as well.

And yes he is more 'well-rounded', but that just means all his skills are at basically equal levels; it doesn't mean that level is high enough.

If nothing else, +200 on somebody like Guida, against a guy in his first UFC fight is something you can't pass up even if you think Pettis will win.

And I actually got through on bookmaker's foreign site, so I can actually palce this bet too! Fuck you , The Man!

Clay Guida(+190) vs Anthony Pettis: 2 units to win 3.8 units

Most of the other fights on the cards have clear favorites, so while it should be easy to pick winners, there aren't any deals on the lines either. The only close lines are Credeur/Herman, and Nijem/Ferguson. I can't pick a winner in the Herman fight, but I think Najim wins the Ultimate fighter. We haven't really got to see enough of Fergusons takedown defense to get a good idea of how this fight will play out.


- The Wise Guy

UFC 130 - Rampage vs Hamill

First of all, our evil fascist government has seized and shut down Bookmaker.com (along with all the poker sites) where I do all my MMA bets. I don't know which other sites are still up and running. The euro Bodog site still appears to be operational, so that is where I am getting the lines from for today. Obviously I will have no actual bets for this card since Bookmaker was shut down.

Rampage(-270) vs Hamill(+210)

Rampage is my pick to win here, but you can't take him at these odds, not after how he performed in the Rashad fight. I think he will be more engaged in this fight, and hopefully in better shape, but there is a definite possibility that Hamill wins a boring UD. I wouldn't put action on this fight, as I don't see a clear path the fight will take, but a small bet on Hamill wouldn't be a bad idea.

Although I think Rampage wins by stuffing the takedowns, and controlling the standup with faster, more technical striking, and more power.


I like Kendall Grove at close odds against Tim Boetsch. He has more range, better cardio, and is very dangerous off his back if the Barbarian gets him down. I see Kendall getting past Boetsch's slow, stiff standup and actually hurting him on the feet, before following him to the ground and getting the submission win. This would be my bet for the night.

Kendall Grove(-140) vs Tim Boetsch(+110): 2 units to win 1.43 units




I am leaning towards Big Country Roy Nelson(+110) in his fight with Frank Mir(-140), but Frank Mir is so unpredictable. He either looks invincible, or like a total pushover. Hard to say where the fight will go also. I think Nelson has better technical standup, but less power. Hard to say who will rule the clinch. Neither are super good with takedowns, but both are decent at defending them, so other than from the clinch, I don't see this fight playing out too much on the ground, so I give a slight edge to Big Country. I would want him to be slightly more of a dog to bet it though. If you can get him for +160 or better I would take the plunge for a unit. He is my pick to win though, I just don't have a clear path for the fight in my head, which always makes it hard to bet on.

I think Thiago Alves (-250) should win, but Rick Story(+190) has confounded me constantly and won every time I bet against him. I don't think he can do what Fitch or GSP did, but he will sure be trying. I officially pick Thiago to win by UD after frustrating Story with excellent TD defense, and brutal standup.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 129 - GSP vs Shields

Shields is an excellent fighter, and his record proves that. Unbeaten in something like 6 years. THe problem is, styles make fights, as they say. And I think GSP is tailor-made to beat Jake Shield's style. GSP has much better striking, and his elite level wrestling should allow him to keep the fight standing and ruin SHields on the feet. Shields has world-class grappling, and has shown an ability to control some excellent fighters. But I think GSP can do enough to at least stay alive if he does somehow end up on his back. Shields couldn't catch kampmann in or Henderson in his last couple fights, and I think GSP has sub defense that is on par with them at least. The cardio will also be a major issue. GSP has the best in the business, AND this is a five round fight. Shields tends to fade even in 3 round fights, so GSP will eat him alive in the championship rounds.

In fact I feel like GSP will be able to end his string of decision victories and get the finish in the 4th or 5th round, via TKO.

Although the odds are steep with GSP at -450, I can't pass on what is such an obviously bad style match-up for shields.

my bets:

GSP(-450) vs Jake Shields: 5 units to win 1.11 units

Randy Couture(+280) vs Lyoto Machida: .5 units to win 1.4 units

Randy has shown to be very good at finding ways to beat people's styles, so he can't be discounted in this fight. Machida is faster and has better standup, and good takedown defense, but I don't see why randy should be almost a 3:1 dog here. I think there is a decent chance he can either find a way to close the distance without being counterpunched to death, or win a decision simply by pushing the pace. Like it or not, there will likely be an unconscious 'handicap' given to Randy by the judges due to the fact that he is older, and Machida has what appears to some to be a timid style, with him sometimes 'running away'. Which means if this goes to anything other than an obvious decision, Couture has a chance to steal it. That fact alone makes +280 on Couture an interesting decision.

I don't really see any other lines I like that much. I think Nate Diaz will win, and he is like +115. I think Hominick is undervalued. I can't make up my mind about the Brilz/Matyushenko or Henderson/Bocek fights. If I HAD to pick I would go with Matyushenko and Henderson, but I am not very confident in those picks. I would stay away from betting on those fights unless you are seeing something I am missing.

Should be a good night of fights! for the first time ever, ALL the fights are being shown, either on facebook, Spike, or the Pay per-view. And don't forget the earlier start time of 9pm EST.

Until next time,

- The Wise Guy

Strikeforce - Diaz vs Daley

Paul Daley is a very dangerous fighter, but he is way too one-dimensional for somebody like Diaz. The only reason the lines are this close is because Diaz has a tendency to try standing with everybody. He has a great chin and even if he gets rocked, he has a great ability to grab subs even still. See the fight with Gomi.

Diaz just has way more ways to win this fight. Daley would basically HAVE to get the knockout to win here. It's what he does, but I think nick is too much for him here.

Nick Diaz(-215) vs Paul Daley: 3 units to win 1.4 units

I think Melendez will will a UD, and Jardine will probably get knocked out (again). I hope fancy pants takes aoki, but he was in too many bad spots last fight against somebody who isn't nearly the sub artist that aoki is. I think he gets submitted here. with Aoki at -225 you may want some action there. I think the line is about right, with maybe a little value for Aoki.


That's all for now. Enjoy the fights!

-The Wise Guy

UFC on Versus Results; +1 Unit

UFC on Versus was a pretty good night of fights. Definitely entertaining.

I only had action on one fight, but it came through for us in a big way. It's always good to know you won less than a minute into the fight.

Mark Munoz(-180) vs CB Dollaway: +1 Unit

I was pretty much spot on in my prediction for the main event, with Diego winning a unanimous decision after a good first round for Kampmann. Too bad though, I would have liked to see Martin win.

That's all for now. There is a lot of MMA coming up Bellator, and 2 more UFC events just this month. It's a good time to be an MMA fan!


-The Wise Guy