UFC 126

I only have one small play for this card:

Ryan Bader (+235) vs Jon Jones: .5 units to win 1.175 units

Bones is good to be sure, and I do think he takes this, but there is no excuse for having bader being this much of a dog against him.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

UFN 23 Quick Pick

I just made this play for UFN 23

Evan Dunham(-235) vs Melvin Guillard: 4 units to win 1.7 units

Jump on this, the line will probably get worse. Only way melvin wins this would be with one hit KO. Possible with him, but unlikely.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 125 update

More of the lines have been posted for UFC 125, and some are worth taking a look at. So far my plays for this event are:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit
Marcus Davis(+205) vs Jeremy Stephens: 1 unit to win 2.05 units

Total: 2.65 units to win 3.05 units

I think Clay will fight smart and avoid trading, and there is no way Gomi can keep up with his pace for 3 whole rounds. I think he will be able to defend with relative success for the first round, but as long as Guida doesn't get KO'd early he will wear down Gomi and get a UD or late stoppage. This line has actually gotten slightly better, with Guida at -160 right now at Bookmaker.

I don't see any reason why Marcus davis is a 2 to 1 dog against Stephens. Marcus is at least equal in power and speed, and has better, more diverse technical boxing, better wrestling, and better submissions. I think Davis gets the better of the exchanges with more technical combos and by mixing up his hands more.


I actually think Frankie Edgar will win, but not strongly enough to bet it.

I think Leben has value at -165

I think Thiago Silva will win, line is about right though.

I'd love to see Baroni win, but man I just don't know. His cardio is SO bad

I think Antonio McKee will should get a pretty straightforward win. Probably still has value at -225. Volkmann hasn't impressed me thus far.


That's all for now. Can't wait for the fights!


- The Wise Guy

UFC 125

There are a lot of fights on this card with close odds. That's a good thing if you have a strong feeling about any of the fights, because you are getting a good deal. However, it also means the fights are harder to pick.

I may make more bets as the fights get closer but for now I only have one bet:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit

Gomi has decent wrestling/takedown defense, but I don't think he can keep up with Guida's pace for more than a round. I think he will control Gomi and bust him up on the ground for a decision win.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

December Results

Ultimate Finale Results:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: -4 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: -.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: -.5 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: + .7 units

Total: - 4.3 units

Hendricks losing the decision really tanked the event for me. Otherwise I would have been at +1.7.

Luckily now I am back in the United States with decent internet and will be able to follow the events more closely and do more research, so hopefully that will see my results improve, as they have suffered slightly recently.

For UFC 124 I had only one bet:

Thiago Alves(-300) vs John Howard: 3 units to win 1

Result: +1 unit.

I was debating whether I should post the bet because I didn't have a chance to do it before the event, and I don't want anybody thinking I was being dishonest or something. Ultimately I have decided to post it, because this blog is mainly for my personal record keeping anyway, and its not some crazy unrealistic bet like saying after that fact that I had 5 units on Serra to beat GSP or something.

Anyway, the Thiago bet helped offset the losses from the ultimate finale somewhat, but it still wasn't a great month for me.

New years resolution: win more money!

Ultimate Finale

Here are my plays for the Ultimate fighter Finale:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: 4 units to win 2 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: .5 units to win 1.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: .5 units to win 1.085 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: 1 unit to win .7 units

Total at risk: 6 units to win 5.285 units

we'll see what happens.



- The Wise Guy

RESULTS

George Sotiropolous(-225) vs Joe Lauzon: +1.33 units
Matt Brown(+130) vs Brian Foster: -1.3 units

So I went 1-1 on bets for a grand total of +.03 units, so it was basically a push.

I was correct in my assessment that both BJ Penn and Rampage had value, although I did think Machida should have gotten the decision in that fight.

I really wish I had put something on Penn. I don't have a lot of time right now as I am finishing up here overseas and getting ready to come home, and if I had more time and faster internet I would have put something on him for sure, and that would have given me a better outcome. Anyway, it is what it is. Its better than a losing event.

Starting in mid-December I will be able to devote more time to MMA, so I should have more consistent posts AND better results. Can't wait!


-The Wise Guy

UFC Bets

Just wanted to quickly post my UFC bets for the next event. Its going to be short and sweet because my middle-eastern internet is being slow right now.

George Longgreeklastname(-225) vs Joe Lauzon: 3 units to win 1.33 units

Matt Brown(+130) vs Brian Foster: 1 unit to win 1.3 units

I think Bj Penn has value. I think Rampage has value.

That's all for now.


- The Wise Guy

UFC 121

I have 2 bets for this event:

Brock Lesnar(-140) vs Cain Velazquez: 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann(+180) vs Jake Shields: 1 unit to win 1.8 units

Overall: 2.4 units to win 2.8 units


Kampmann was at +215 a few days ago and I am kicking myself for not getting on that soon enough. I didn't think it would drop like that. I think he has the TD defense to stay out of trouble, and will light Shields up on the feet.


A lot is made of Cains cardio, but honestly Brock's is very good too. Definitely above average for the heavyweight division. And it is a lot more difficult to grapple with somebody who is much bigger AND also very good. In other words, out-wrestling Kongo just isn't going to be that tiring for a wrestler with Cain's skills. Cain has much better boxing, but if Carwin couldn't put Lesnar away I doubt cain will be knocking him out. Can Cain outbox Lesnar AND stop his takedowns at the same time? That is the question. I don't think Cain (or anybody else) can survive being under Lesnar for very long, the question is can he keep from ending up there. I don't think he can, not for the whole fight.

Cain has shown the ability to get rocked as well. He is used to enjoying a significant speed and wrestling advantage, and both will be mostly neutralized by Brock. I think Brock gets the TKO via ground and pound in round.

UFC 120

I really only have one bet right now for UFC 120:

Dan Hardy(-160) vs Carlos Condit: 2 units to win 1.25 units


While Dan Hardy never has struck me as an especially dynamic fighter, he is effective, and it is tough to make him look bad or to hurt him.

He has shown effective striking, great submission defense, and solid takedown defense.

Condit is a very solid, well-rounded fighter, and actually is very dynamic. The trouble is he takes risks, gives up position, and really fights aggressively. This makes for good fights, but it doesn't always put him in a great position to win decisions if he can't overwhelm or finish his opponents. I think this fight will play out with Condit being the aggressor, and Hardy responding with great defense, and more effective, damaging striking, and ultimately get him the decision win.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 119 Results

Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: -1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: +1.25 units

Overall: +.25 units


Just like last event I eeked out a positive result. Disappointing, but positive is positive. As Always I was sad to see Crocop lose, especially when Mir was being so passive. I really feel like CC could have taken this fight if he actually FOUGHT. It was like watching the JDS fight all over again. He threw 2 kicks and maybe 10 punches the entire fight.

The Stephens Guillard fight went pretty much like I expected, it was just a little closer than I thought it would be.

Wishing I pulled the trigger on Sherk.




- The Wise Guy

UFC 119

I currently have 2 bets for UFC 119:

Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units

Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units

Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.

I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.



That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFN 22 - results

Rousimar Palhares(-195) vs Nate Marquardt: -.5 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: +1.075 units

So the results ended up pretty much like I expected. I figured one of my two bets would come through, but I really didn't think they both would.

Ended the evening ahead .5075 units.


Cole looked good, and as I suspected his reach advantage proved to be an issue for Pearson.

The main event was very strange. I definitely think Palhares would have made it much more of a close fight had it not been for the bizarre circumstances that occured.

Definitely a coming out party for Charles Oliveira. That kid is a contender for sure. Extremely well rounded and dynamic. His bounce-off-the-cage takedown was amazing, as was the way he took the back to end it. Very good fight.

All in all pretty good fights.


I will have more on the next event soon.





-The Wise Guy

UFN 22 Bets

I have 2 dog bets for Ultimate Fight Night 22:

Rousimar Palhares(+195) vs Nate Marquardt: .5 units to win .95 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: .5 units to win 1.075 units

While Marquardt does have better striking and a better overall game than "paul harris", I do think Rousimar has better wrestling and will end up on top, at least a couple times during the fight. I doubt nate can threaten him from his back, and I feel like he has a legit chance of being submitted.

Ross pearson has shown some solid skills and a great overall game, but I think Cole is the most dangerous opponent he has faced, and had real finishing potential. Miller's strikes can hurt people, and I think Pearson may struggle with a reach disadvantage. Pearson has decent wrestling, but Cole is one of those fighters that is actually dangerous off his back, and can threaten submissions or reversals from any position. I do fear Miller's questionable chin however, even though Pearson doesn't have a lot of KOs to his record. I don't know if I am actually picking Miller to win outright here, but these odds seem way off to me. It is a decent step up in competition for Pearson, and Miller offers a lot of dangerous skill that he hasn't had to face before.


That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

Bellator 26 and UFC 118 - Results

The only play I had for Bellator 26 came through for me:

Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly: +1 unit


The fight went just about like I thought it would. Ward scored early with a judo-throw takedown, and controlled the fight with her grappling, winning a unanimous decision.


UFC 118 wasn't as successful for me, as I went 0-2.

Kenny Florian(-130) vs Gray Maynard: -2 units
Marcus Davis(+165) vs Nate Diaz: -.5 units

I was just totally on the wrong side of the line with both od these fights. Kenny didn't seem as dedicated to immediately getting back to his feet as he did in the Guida fight, and when both fighters were on the feet it was very tentative.

Davis just had no answer for Diaz's reach advantage and awkward boxing style. He did hit Nate with a fair number of hard shots early in the fight, but his chin held up.

Definitely a disappointing event, but the losses weren't too bad, and were mitigated by my win from the Bellator event.

I'm still closing out August up 2.3 units, so still a solid month.


There are plenty of MMA events in September, so hopefully there will be some good odds on some of the fights. Stay tuned.



-The Wise Guy

Bellator 26

I only have one bet so far on Bellator 26

Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly(-125): 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I think Daly is the slight favorite here simply due to her being the slightly larger of the two fighters having competed at higher weights, and her undefeated record. While Ward will most likely be smaller, she is strong and has enjoyed a significant strength advantage over her previous opponents, so I think in terms of pure physicality these two will be pretty evenly matched.

on top of that Ward is a multiple-time grappling champion in no-gi and gi. Her striking is technically sound, as is her overall technique in general. On the other hand Daly has appeared more sloppy in some of her bouts.

I think Ward is a more well-rounded, more technical fighter, and has benefitted from higher quality opposition in the past. I think she is more technical on the feet, and her grappling should allow her to control the fight and threaten with submissions, even if she ends up on the bottom.




-The Wise Guy

Strikeforce and UFC 118 and 119

I don't have any bets for Strikeforce tonight. If I was going to make a bet, it would be on Jacare @ -200 over Tim Kennedy. Noons is going to beat Gurgel, but the odds aren't great.

For UFC 118 I already have 2 units on Florian, and I just added another bet:

Marcus Davis (+165) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win .825 units

Though I think Nate will probably get the takedown at some point, he is usually content to trade with people. Davis has solid wrestling and much better striking. He is bigger stronger, faster, and has solid TD defense. He has enough submission savvy that getting taken down isn't like an automatic win for diaz either. I think he will be able to pull out a decision win here.

I also made another bet, for UFC 119, because I think the line might get worse:

Mirko Cro Cop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units

Crocop has excellent takedown defense, and Mir has never had amazing takedowns. Add to that the fact that Mirko should have a solid advantage in the striking, and it is a little interesting that he is the underdog in this fight. If somehow the odds get even better closer to fight time I will probably add another unit to this play, if he gets better than +200.

That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 117 Results

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: +3.15 units
Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: +1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: -1 unit

2-1 on bets, + 3.89 units

It is good to see that when I go back to my normal methods I can consistently get winning events again.

Not a bad night of bets at all. I wish I had bet more on Clay and Fitch, especially at those awesome odds. I was convinced they would win, but the odds were so off I thought maybe I was missing something and started to doubt myself a little. In the end, both fights went almost exactly as I thought (I thought Clay would get a UD, not a submission).

Hazelett didn't pull out the win, so I am glad I only put one unit there. Havn't seen the fight yet, but apparently it was TKO in the 2nd. Not sure if that was standing or from GNP though. That's two in a row for him, hopefully he bounces back.

Main event was crazy.

Matt Hughes had an awesome performance. I actually expected him to lose that fight, and he goes out there and completely dominates.

Decent event overall. Any positive event leaves me in a good mood.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 117 betting picks

As I wrote in an earlier post, I already have a bet on Jon fitch:

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units

As of right now Fitch is at about -120. I would still make this bet at these odds.

My other action for this card is:

Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: 2 units to win 1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: 1 unit to win .87 units

Total: 6 units to win 5.76units

While Dos Anjos has a chance to get a submission for sure, Guida has shown incredible submission defense. The only times he has gotten submitted is when he has been hurt bad with punches. Dos Anjos is much better on the feet to be sure, but I don't think he can stop the takedowns and deal with Guida's pace for the distance. Guida by UD. I am a big fan of Guida's as well, so I would love to see him win here.

I am also a big Hazelett fan, and that is part of the reason I am betting on him here. I do think he will win though. I think he has a wrestling disadvantage but he is very dangerous with his BJJ and can certainly finish this fight from his back.

Other than these fights there isn't much on this card to bet. Saunders isn't a bad bet against hallman. He's a little high though, but I would bet him under -200. Hendricks will win, but its not worth it for those odds. When are they going to give him a top 10 opponent?

Should be a solid card overall. Can't wait!

-The Wise Guy

UFC 116 - FLAWLESS VICTORY

SWEEP

Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: +2.5 units
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: +.825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: +.675 units
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: +1 unit

Total: 4-0 on bets, +5 units

Matt Brown put the fear in me with that solid d'arce attempt. Gave me the willies. Ultimately Lytle won by submission as I predicted.

The leben fight went exactly as I predicted: Sexyama would look good in the first round, but would tire quickly with Leben's toughness, physicality, and hard shots. The only thing I didn't call was him winning by sub, which is impressive against a fighter of Akiyama's caliber.

I got lucky that the Grove fight went my way. I would have said he won, but I really thought the judges would give Reljic the 2nd round. Its good too see that they are learning. Other than getting one takedown, he did NOTHING while on top, and ate a lot of shots.

I was wrong in my analysis of the main event. I thought whoever won would look easy. I figured Carwin would blast brock with his early storm, or Brock would get top position and pound him out. What I DIDN'T think would happen is that Brock would weather everything Carwin had, absorbing countless blows with his water-melon sized head, and come back in the second round to win by Sub. Although as soon as the first round was over I knew for sure Brock would win. Carwin had nothing left, and had noticeably slowed even by the end of the first round. Brock showed an ability to take some big punches, some versatility, and most importantly, heart.


NOTES:

• Where can I get me some of those big foam UFC hulk-hands? Hilarious.
• So glad to see Bonnar get the win. I was happy for him. and the post-fight psycho-stare pose was awesome.
• I forget who it was, but after one of the fights, somebody almost suffocted trying to put their shirt on. Sponsor-shirt by SUB
• I don't think there was a boring fight on this card. Great card overall.
• Sad to see Pellegrino lose, but man George is becoming a BEAST!

- The Wise Guy