UFC 116 - FLAWLESS VICTORY

SWEEP

Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: +2.5 units
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: +.825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: +.675 units
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: +1 unit

Total: 4-0 on bets, +5 units

Matt Brown put the fear in me with that solid d'arce attempt. Gave me the willies. Ultimately Lytle won by submission as I predicted.

The leben fight went exactly as I predicted: Sexyama would look good in the first round, but would tire quickly with Leben's toughness, physicality, and hard shots. The only thing I didn't call was him winning by sub, which is impressive against a fighter of Akiyama's caliber.

I got lucky that the Grove fight went my way. I would have said he won, but I really thought the judges would give Reljic the 2nd round. Its good too see that they are learning. Other than getting one takedown, he did NOTHING while on top, and ate a lot of shots.

I was wrong in my analysis of the main event. I thought whoever won would look easy. I figured Carwin would blast brock with his early storm, or Brock would get top position and pound him out. What I DIDN'T think would happen is that Brock would weather everything Carwin had, absorbing countless blows with his water-melon sized head, and come back in the second round to win by Sub. Although as soon as the first round was over I knew for sure Brock would win. Carwin had nothing left, and had noticeably slowed even by the end of the first round. Brock showed an ability to take some big punches, some versatility, and most importantly, heart.


NOTES:

• Where can I get me some of those big foam UFC hulk-hands? Hilarious.
• So glad to see Bonnar get the win. I was happy for him. and the post-fight psycho-stare pose was awesome.
• I forget who it was, but after one of the fights, somebody almost suffocted trying to put their shirt on. Sponsor-shirt by SUB
• I don't think there was a boring fight on this card. Great card overall.
• Sad to see Pellegrino lose, but man George is becoming a BEAST!

- The Wise Guy

UFC 116 UPDATE

Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: 5 units to win 2.5 units

How Could Mike brown win this fight?

Submission? Doubtful. I don't even know if Brown is purple belt level yet, and Lytle is a legit BB, Never submitted in 50 fights.

Top control for 3 rounds? Again, doubtful. Lytle's grappling is excellent. He has avoided being controlled by much better wrestlers and grapplers than Brown.

Knockout? Once again, not likely. Lytle is a 17-1 professional boxer. He has fast hands, solid power, and a good chin. His only 2 TKO stoppages in his 50 fights have come due to cuts. He has never been stopped from anything else. Considering the opposition he has faced, I doubt Brown will be the one to do it, despite his solid striking.

Outstriking for 3 rounds? This is the only possible way for brown to win IMO. Possible, not likely. Technical striking advantage goes to lytle. Cardio advantage also probably goes to Lytle.

To top it all off, Lytle already beat Brown once, three years ago. Guillotine in the 2nd. My money (literally) is on Lytle, especially at these gift odds.

I am betting enough to basically cover the rest of my bets. I should have waited a little longer on lesnar as his odds keep going down.


Also, I don't want to put any more units at risk with this card, but at +160 Pellegrino is an awesome bet.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 116 Lesnar vs Carwin - Betting Picks

Right now I have the following bets:

Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: .5 units to win .825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: .5 units to win .675 units

I am going to cover these with a bet to win 1 unit on Lesnar, but I am waiting because his odds are slowly getting better. Right now they are at about -157.

UPDATE: I don't know how often I will be able to check odds over the next few days, so I went ahead and locked in Lesnar at -155.

Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: 1.55 units to win 1 unit

Total for UFC 116: Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units

LESNAR vs CARWIN: What it comes down to is Carwin is just not very well rounded. He has inhuman punching power, and has been able to use it effectively over and over again. But that is ALL he has. His wrestling is overrated (he tends to bull-rush in and stumble around) and I believe most success in controlling his mostly less-than-stellar opposition is due to his size and strength. Even if I am wrong, his wrestling on paper, and in the ring, doesn't hold a candle to Lesnar's. I have seen nothing to suggest that he will be able to stop Lesnar's take downs.

Carwin's striking, while almost impossibly powerful, is stiff slow, and not technical. I actually believe lesnar has shown better technical striking for the most part. Carwin also takes a lot of hits, and was getting outstruck by Gonzaga and Neil Wain (who) before landing his knockout punches.

basically Carwin HAS to get his patented "knockout within 2 minutes" to win this fight. As long as Lesnar just shoots a double right out of the gate, and drives halfway across the cage a al vintage Koscheck, I think the fight is his. I don't think Carwin's poor defense will let him survive being under lesnar for very long.

Of course carwin as proven to be very good at doing just what he needs to to win this fight, and Lesnar is coming off a long layoff with a hospital stay and surgery, so there are some intangibles.
But the odds are very good, and I will only be risking about 1.5 - 1.7 units, unless the odds change drastically.

LEBEN vs SEXYAMA: The Sexy one I believe will have his hands full with this fight. While I think he has probably better technical striking and is, overall, a more well rounded, technically skilled fighter, I think Leben poses some unique problems for him.

For starters, Akiyama is undersized for the middleweight division. We saw this be somewhat of a problem for him against belcher. Leben also has shown excellent takedown defense, especially lately in his fight against Simpson, so Akiyama will have a difficult time taking it to the ground. Leben will have to watch out for the judo throws though.

I think this fight will play out on the feet, with a fair amount of clinch work. Akiyama will get theh better of the striking exchanges early, but without much damage to leben. after the first round I think the clinch work with the bigger leben, along with the occasional Leben-bomb that gets through, will start to wear on him. I think the 2 and third rounds will go to leben, and he will take a UD.

GROVE vs RELJIC

No real in-depth thoughts behind this one. I just think Kendall has enough to get him to the ground and submit him.

None of these fights are super one sided, but the odds are cheap and I have structured it so I can push in multiple scenarios. As long as I win any 2 I will push or come very close (depending on the Lesnar odds). if lesnar wins I will at least push.

Should be some interesting fights!!



-The Wise Guy

Early Odds - Fitch and Florian

There are a couple of lines on some upcoming events that I think are just too good to pass up.

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves

Simply put, there is just no way Fitch should anything other than a solid favorite here. He is probably THE most consistent performer in all of mma. Other than the loss to GSP, he has continued to do his thing, which is dominating everybody else.

In the meantime, Thiago has been doing his thing, and seems to have gotten better at what he was already good at. But, just like Art Jimmerson didn't lose to Royce because he wasn't a good enough boxer, Alves didn't lose to Fitch because his striking wasn't good enough. Despite his improvement he is just not going to be able to control the fight. I don't think Fitch will get anywhere near finishing him this time, but Fitch's game should be able to stop him from mounting much of an offense. When Alves isn't getting taken down or getting back up, he is going to be defending takedowns from the clinch. And I think he will be able to defend it well at first, but I don't think he can handle Fitch's "grind".

When all is said and done, there is no reason to think Fitch won't be able to grind out a decision here. And with that being said , +105 is a STEAL.

MY BET: Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units


Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard

Gray Maynard performed very well since his loss on the Ultimate Fighter, and remains undefeated. Recently he seems like he may have come down with a moderate case of 'boxitis', which caused him to take a split decision over Nate Diaz when he should have been able to solidly control that fight. Now he may have been worried about going to the ground with Diaz, and purposefully kept the fight on the feet. Well, he has just as much to worry about in the ground game of Kenny florian, and much more to worry about in his standup. And while other people seem to be able to only strike OR defend the takedown, Kenny seems to be able to successfully defend the takedown while still mounting a successful offense.

When all is said and done, Maynard has a lot more to worry about than Kenny. He is one of the most well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, has burned through top competition with ease, and is a deal at these odds.

MY BET: Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard: 2 units to win 1.48 units


I have a feeling both of these lines will get worse, so jump on it.



-The Wise Guy

Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - SWEEP

RESULTS
Hail to the king:

Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: +1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: +1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: + .775 units

BETS: 3-0, +3.15 units

I said I was gonna bet Jardine if he made it past+150, and he never did. So I never bet it, and I'm glad I didn't. Although I do feel he got screwed. With the point deduction that fight should have been a draw. I don't even think he should have gotten a point taken. People get poked all the time, and RARELY is a point deducted.

I think Leben got a generous stoppage in a technical sense, but I doubt the outcome would have been different had they let it go a few more seconds. I wasn't complaining.

The Siver/Fisher fight went about as I thought it would, and his slight edge played out.

On UFC fantasy I called Court McGee by choke in the 3rd, so the fight went almost exactly as I had anticipated.
I also called Leben by tko in the second, but I didn't get max points because I guessed it would happen in the 3rd minute instead of the 4th. How incredibly gay is that? I call the fight EXACTLY right and lose points because I was off on the finish time by less than 60 seconds. Their scoring system is horrible.



REFLECTIONS

This card provided some much needed units and an equally important morale boost. It is amazing mow much of a confidence booster it can be to have a successful night like this. I am definitely going to continue to do what I have in the beginning and bet few fights, and only those that I really feel I have a good handle on the outcome.

The 'bet almost every fight' strategy proved to be a very expensive experiment. I just wish I had done poorly when I was doing it notionally so I wouldn't have tried it with real bets.

I realized betting a lot of fights is like playing a lot of hands in poker; yeah you CAN win on any hand, but when there is no penalty for passing why not wait for the hands where you KNOW you have a significant advantage?

I am going back to my original strategy, which was decidedly simple: End the night positive. At all costs. Regardless of value, odds, whatever. The only goal is to gain units and NEVER lose them. This meant I bet WAY less fights, and skipped some cards altogether. But you know what? it worked. And it is much better to not make any bets at all than to lose a unit or two on some stupid speculating 'value' bets.



-The Wise Guy

Me and Heath "The Texas Hold-em Crazy Horse" Herring

As I have mentioned before, I am currently deployed to Kuwait.
Sometimes celebrities or bands come through here on USO tours. The latest was to promote the "Circle of Pain" movie, and they brought Heath Herring, Bai Ling, and whoever the hell the other guy in the movie was.

I ran into Heath Herring at the USO poker tournament next door to where they were showing the movie, and got to play some hold-em with him. He's pretty good too, I might add.

I got a picture with him, but the douche that took it must have had some sort of palsy because it came out all blurry. You can still tell its him, and it sort of obscures how much of a semi-pubescent man-child I look like next to him.





- The Wise Guy

Ultimate Finale

BETS:

Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: 2.15 units to win 1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win 1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: .5 units to win .775 units


I am watching the line on Jardine. It keeps getting better. if he gets to +150 or better I will put .5 units on him. maybe 1 unit.

Based on the previous fight I think there is value on Baczynsky at his current odds of +190.
Attonitio isn't bad at -120 either, and I like Bryant as a dog against Noke. I am not betting any of these though, for the simple reason I am trying to limit my exposure for this card. I have been having a terrible run of it lately, and I'd like to see if I can come up positive for once.

- The Wise Guy

UFC 115 results

Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit
Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1 unit

Total: 3-2, -.9 units

Did ok with my picks, but it seems like I can't get a positive event to save my life.

But I have never been so happy to lose a bet. Crocop looked awesome! And not just because he won. He looked like he wanted to be there, like he wanted the win. He fought back from being hurt early, mixed up his attacks, and won by submission!

I'm stoked. I have been a huge Crocop fan for years and lately he had just seemed like he had lost the will to fight. So glad to see him back in classic form.

The Tyson griffin loss is what kept me from having a + event. I knew I didn't like those odds. I haven't seen the fight, so I don't know how close it really was, but Evan Dunham is the real deal.
I will not take him lightly in the future.

Pyle looked good. I was a little hesitant with that bet because I couldn't tell exactly how I thought he would win, I just new he would be able to slightly out-class lennox in several areas. Lennox is much more one-dimensional. Turns out I was right.

Carlos condit performed like I hoped. Maybe lucky with the stoppage, because I don't know how a decision would have gone. He may have barely lost the first 2 rounds. This is why the fight as a whole type scoring is better. In my mind, obviously the domination in the 3rd round more than makes up for getting slightly outpointed for 2 rounds, but taking no damage. But even if he got a 10-8 it may have been a draw. Most of that is due to Condit's go-for-the finish style, which I love. He will sacrifice position and take those risks. It doesn't lend itself well to the 10 point must scoring, but I wish more fighters would fight that way.

The Rich / Chuck fight went exactly like I thought it would.

Thoughts:

• Hat stealers!! haha
• They need to speed up how long it takes to introduce the main event. I ducked out right when Goldie said "its time for our main event", and I had time to shower, shave, and jerk off 3 times to replays of Mirko's fight before the main event started. They seriously take 10-15 minutes, time it.
• Pretty good event overall. No boring fights.
• Wishing I had taken the plunge on Kampmann and Rothwell. Kampmann looked really sharp.

Another event coming up soon! That's all for now.

-The Wise Guy

More UFC 115 action

Some more bets:

Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit

I was hoping The Crow would come in as a favorite, but no dice.

I think Thiago will win, but the odds are getting close to it being a good deal on Kampmann. If he gets past +200 I will probably put half a unit on him.

Franklin came down a little actually, bummer. I should have waited.


that's all for now.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 115 Early Odds

Only a few of the lines for 115 have posted so far, but I wanted to get on these because I think they may change:

Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1

I am a huge Crocop fan, but (even recent fights not withstanding) he has never done great against confident, aggressive strikers who are going to constantly move forward and push the pace. I see him losing a decision.

Same with Chuck. He is great at knocking out people who are trying to take him down. Against people with strict technical striking he has always floundered. Add to that his weak chin of late, and I think Franklin is a fairly safe bet here, and a deal at these odds.

I am watching the line for Danzig/Wiman closely. Right now they are both -115. I can make a case for either of these fighters winning. Right now I am actually leaning towards Wiman, although either guy would be a deal as a decent dog, so watch this line.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 114 Results

Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS

Result: 5-6 picks, 4-5 bets, -3.63 units

Wasn't a good night, but not devastating. I would have almost pushed if I got just 1 more fight right, which is sort of frustrating.

I am surprised at the Diego outcome, but I am glad I picked right in the Diabate fight. Don't know what this means for Cane-two quick KOs back to back. Not good.

I am glad I passed on the Duffee and Nogueira fights (even though Nog 'won'

Basically a pretty rough card unless you bet a lot of dogs; the underdogs won in 6 of the 11 fights (7 if you disregard little Nog's gift decision)

-The Wise Guy

UFC 114

Hey all,

I haven't updated in a while on account of being stuck in the middle of the desert in Kuwait, but I wanted to get on here really quick and post my bets for 114

113 was brutal, and I'll update on that later, but I wanted to get this post up before the event tomorrow.

Just the down and dirty, here are my bets (the Rampage bet was made a while ago that's why it is not bet to win 1)

Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS

All in all, 18.65 units to win 9.64 units

I like that finally there is a card that isn't all HUGE favorites. Really only two big favorites that I am betting on (Efrain and Melvin)

I think Cane will probably win, but I think Cyrille is a good deal at those odds. He has good stand up and Cane will likely stand with him. Escudero I don't like the odds, but I can't see him losing. Haven't seen enough of Duffee, and the odds are too steep on Nogueira.



Can't wait to watch the fights!

- The Wise Guy

Quick look - upcoming odds

just a heads up on a couple of fights coming up with deals:

Rich Franklin(-145) vs Chuck Liddell(+115)
Gray Maynard(+105) vs Kenny Florian(-135)

These are great deals on Franklin and Florian. Chucks Popularity will keep this line lower than it should be, but I still think it will get worse than this. Franklin has solid technical striking and liddells chin won't be able to take it.

Maynard Has been acting like a boxer lately, and regardless Florian has shown tremendous takedown defense lately. Definitely a deal for a fighter of his caliber.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 113

Internet is working right now, so I can post my UFC 113 bets:

Mauricio Rua(+152) vs Lyoto Machida(-192): PASS
Paul Daley(+205) vs Josh Koscheck(-255): 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Stephens(+160) vs Sam Stout(-195): 3 units to win 1.54 units
Matt Mitrione(+105) vs Kimbo Slice(-105): 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Alan Belcher(-115) vs Patrick Cote(-115): 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Joe Doerkson(+385) vs Tom Lawlor(-485): 4.85 units to win 1 unit
Jonathan Goulet(+350) vs Marcus Davis(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
TJ Grant(+350) vs Johnny Hendricks(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
Tim Hague(-240) vs Joey Beltran(+190): PASS
Mike Guymon(+190) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida(-240); 2.4 units to win 1 unit
John Salter(+135) vs Jason Macdonald(-165): 1.65 units to win 1 unit

TOTAL: 25.6 units to win 10.59 units

The Stout and Mitrione bets were made much earlier. The odds listed are the odds on them at the time the bet was placed. The odds on their opponents are the current odds. The odds have gotten slightly worse on both of them since the bets were made, so I'm glad I jumped on them then.

It is an interesting card because I am choosing all favorites. It is VERY unlikely that the favorites will win EVERY single fight, but individually I can't pick against them in any matchup. So we'll see what happens. because I am choosing a lot of heavy favorites I am more likely to get them right, but I will also lose more if(when) I get any of them wrong.

I think Lyoto will win what I see as a 50/50 matchup. obviously the value is with Rua in that case, but I think Lyoto will win so I'm not going to bet it. Koscheck still has me worried, but if he uses proper strategy it will be a rout, and the odds have come down a lot so I went with him.

I still can't see Stout losing, so get your money in on that one, the line is still a steal. Same with Cote. Although my confidence isn't as high as with Stout, I really feel strongly he will win and he is almost even money.

Lawlor, Hendricks, and Davis are all large favorites, but they should be. I can't see them losing their fights. A loss from any of the three will put a big dent in my earnings for the night, however.

should be a fun night of fights. Can't wait!

- The Wise Guy

UFC 113

My UFC 113 brief breakdown:

Lyoto Machida(-190) vs Maurico Rua(+150)

This fight is such a toss up. I am picking Lyoto to win simply because I don't think Shogun will be able to do the same thing to him that he did last time. At the current odds though it is hard to justify a bet on The Dragon.

Josh Koscheck(-275) vs Paul Daley(+215)

I am worried that Koscheck will try for even a few seconds to trade with Daley, and that is the only thing thing that makes me unsure. Koscheck has the ability to downright embarrass Daley. Lets justhope he uses it. Even at the current odds the only choice is Koscheck or pass.

Sam Stout(-205) vs Jeremy Stephens(+165)

Easy pick, Sam Stout by UD. If you make one bet for this card, this should be it.

I already have a bet on this fight: Sam Stout(-195) 3 units to win 1.54 units.

Kimbo Slice(-125) vs Matt Mitrione(-105)

While neither of these guys are great, I am picking Mitrione in this simply because I think he is better, and Kimbo performed so badly against Alexander.

I already have a bet on this fight as well: Matt Mitrione(+105) 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Patrick Cote(-105) vs Alan Belcher(-125)

Both of these guys have good standup, but Belcher has a tendency to absorb more shots, and Cote hits hard and has a better chin. He takes this one by KO, and is a steal at the current odds.

Marcus Davis(???) vs Jonathan Goulet(???)

I think the UFC just wanted to remind everybody that Davis can knock people out. I don't think Goulet is better anywhere.

Tj Grant(???) vs Johnny Hendricks(???)

Hendricks should control this fight.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida(???) vs Mike Guymon(???)

I think Yoshida is a more well rounded fighter, so I'm picking him in this matchup.

Nick Catone(???) vs John Salter(???)

I am going to have to research salter more thoroughly before making a pick on this one. Pass for now.



Not sure why there are only 9 fights on this card. I will post the rest of my bets once the lines get released.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 112 - Disaster

Well this card was a total ASS raping. In terms of pure predictions this is the worst card I have ever had, quite literally.

BETS:
Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565): - .18 units
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575) PASS
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335): + 1 unit
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190): -.67 units
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139): -1.39 units
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550): -.25 units
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245): PUSH
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165): -.74 units
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170): -1.7 units
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200): -2.5 units
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305): PASS

PICKS: 4-7
BETS: 1-7-1, -6.42 units

A total disaster by any measurements, this card was especially frustrating to watch.

The ref just stood there while Munoz just hung on to an ankle like Mark Coleman and got pounded on, and then stopped it when Grove was in the same position.

I'm not even sure why the Taylor/Gunderson fight got cancelled, but I'm glad because I probably would have gotten it wrong.

Even Hughes looked like he may lose for a while.

And Anderson was pissing me off. If you are so damn good that you can just clown people then finish the damn fight! I gained a lot of respect for Maia though.

Anyway I did so badly on this card from start to finish it wasn't even enjoyable to watch. Pretty shitty overall.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 112 picks and bets

These are my official Picks for UFC 112: (Note they are NOT necessarily my bets. Bets are below.)

Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565)
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575)
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335)
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190)
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139)
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550)
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245)
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165)
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170)
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200)
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305)



BETS (once again these represent actual bets):

Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565): .18 units to win 1 unit
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575) PASS
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335): 4.35 units to win 1 unit
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190): .67 units to win 1 unit
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139: 1.39 units to win 1 unit
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550): .25 units to win 1 unit
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245): .51 units to win 1 unit
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165): .74 units to win 1 unit
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170): 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200): 2.5 units to win 1 unit
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305): PASS

Total: Risking 12.29 units to win 9 units



- The Wise Guy

UFC 112 thoughts

There are 4 fights on this card with significant underdogs (better than +350).
These fights and their current odds are:

BJ Penn(-700) vs Frankie Edgar(+500)
Matt Hughes(-455) vs Renzo Gracie(+355)
Anderson Silva(-700) vs Demian Maia(+500)
Phil Davis(-470) vs Alexander Gustafsson(+370)

Now I have accepted a BJ Penn victory as a foregone conclusion, so ignore that fight for now. But I have been thinking about the other three fights. With my current betting method, to bet on all the favorites would require risking 16.25 units to win just 3. If I lose even one of these bets I would be down at the least 2.55 units, and as much as 5. A break-even card would be a blessing at that point. If I lose more than one... well, the card is a loser for sure. And potentially a BIG loser.

So what's the alternative? With the "bet to win 1" system I could bet on the dogs in all 3 fights for less than a single unit. .75 to be exact. That means that even if I lose all three (the most likely scenario) I am only down .75 units and winning only one other fight puts me ahead .25 units. Of course one of the dogs could win too, covering the bets on all three and then some.

I haven't made my bets yet for this card, so let me know what you guys think.




-The Wise Guy

UFN 21 - BOOYAH

Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): +1 unit
Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): -2.6 units

Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): +2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): +1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .+1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): +1 unit

Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555): PASS

Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): +1 unit

Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): +1 unit

Charlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS

Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASS

Total: +5.43 units

8-3 on my picks, 7-1 on my bets.

The difference between my picks and my bets illustrates why I implemented the "pass" option. Correctly choosing which fights to pass on will make a huge difference in the long term. I am probably going to say I can pass on no more than 3 on an 11-fight card, and 2 on cards that have 10 fights or less.

This time I think picked the right fights to pass on. I went 1-2 on the fights I passed. Altogether AWESOME results! I'm obviously very pleased.


Pearson: great footwork and head movement, and FAST
Siver: Showed some decent grappling and good chin. Not a bad showing just came up short.
Less clinch-work in this fight than I would have expected.

Whatever the opposite of a bobblehead doll is, that's what Quarry is. He never moves his head. I knew he was over-valued here and I paid for it. I still thought he would win, but I should have known better than to take him at those odds.

In the fights that aired, nothing else really deviated from how I thought it would go. I'll try to check out the ones I missed later.

I didn't get to submit my UFC Fantasy game picks in time, so I don't have any results for that.


-The Wise guy

UFN 21

So I have been talking a lot about switching my actual bets to the method I have been using for the experiment, and I finally decided to do it. So all of the picks listed below represent actual bets.

I don't actually expect to do too well on my picks for this card, but I didn't want to come in on a card that I knew I had a good chance of doing really well on. If I do decently on a card like this with several hard to call fights, it will be a good sign. Honestly I had a lot of trouble picking a few of these fights, so a break even night here would be good IMO.


Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): 3.15 units to win 1 unit

Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): 2.6 units to win 1 unit

Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): 6 units to win 2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): 1.69 units to win 1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .55 units to win 1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): 1.43 units to win 1 unit

Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555) PASS

Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): 2.95 units to win 1 unit

Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): 2.1 units to win 1 unit

Charlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS

Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASS

Risking 20.47 units to win 9.03 units

The Nelson bet is disproportionally large, since I had already made that bet a while ago. It is also slightly below the current odds of around -325. Since I had extra units on Nelson I gave myself 3 passes for this card. I really think Okami is going to win, but those odds are so high I would have to bet on Linhares if I was going to touch that fight.

Let's see what happens!


-The Wise guy