I have 2 bets for this event:
Brock Lesnar(-140) vs Cain Velazquez: 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann(+180) vs Jake Shields: 1 unit to win 1.8 units
Overall: 2.4 units to win 2.8 units
Kampmann was at +215 a few days ago and I am kicking myself for not getting on that soon enough. I didn't think it would drop like that. I think he has the TD defense to stay out of trouble, and will light Shields up on the feet.
A lot is made of Cains cardio, but honestly Brock's is very good too. Definitely above average for the heavyweight division. And it is a lot more difficult to grapple with somebody who is much bigger AND also very good. In other words, out-wrestling Kongo just isn't going to be that tiring for a wrestler with Cain's skills. Cain has much better boxing, but if Carwin couldn't put Lesnar away I doubt cain will be knocking him out. Can Cain outbox Lesnar AND stop his takedowns at the same time? That is the question. I don't think Cain (or anybody else) can survive being under Lesnar for very long, the question is can he keep from ending up there. I don't think he can, not for the whole fight.
Cain has shown the ability to get rocked as well. He is used to enjoying a significant speed and wrestling advantage, and both will be mostly neutralized by Brock. I think Brock gets the TKO via ground and pound in round.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Saturday, October 16, 2010
UFC 120
I really only have one bet right now for UFC 120:
Dan Hardy(-160) vs Carlos Condit: 2 units to win 1.25 units
While Dan Hardy never has struck me as an especially dynamic fighter, he is effective, and it is tough to make him look bad or to hurt him.
He has shown effective striking, great submission defense, and solid takedown defense.
Condit is a very solid, well-rounded fighter, and actually is very dynamic. The trouble is he takes risks, gives up position, and really fights aggressively. This makes for good fights, but it doesn't always put him in a great position to win decisions if he can't overwhelm or finish his opponents. I think this fight will play out with Condit being the aggressor, and Hardy responding with great defense, and more effective, damaging striking, and ultimately get him the decision win.
-The Wise Guy
Dan Hardy(-160) vs Carlos Condit: 2 units to win 1.25 units
While Dan Hardy never has struck me as an especially dynamic fighter, he is effective, and it is tough to make him look bad or to hurt him.
He has shown effective striking, great submission defense, and solid takedown defense.
Condit is a very solid, well-rounded fighter, and actually is very dynamic. The trouble is he takes risks, gives up position, and really fights aggressively. This makes for good fights, but it doesn't always put him in a great position to win decisions if he can't overwhelm or finish his opponents. I think this fight will play out with Condit being the aggressor, and Hardy responding with great defense, and more effective, damaging striking, and ultimately get him the decision win.
-The Wise Guy
Sunday, September 26, 2010
UFC 119 Results
Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: -1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: +1.25 units
Overall: +.25 units
Just like last event I eeked out a positive result. Disappointing, but positive is positive. As Always I was sad to see Crocop lose, especially when Mir was being so passive. I really feel like CC could have taken this fight if he actually FOUGHT. It was like watching the JDS fight all over again. He threw 2 kicks and maybe 10 punches the entire fight.
The Stephens Guillard fight went pretty much like I expected, it was just a little closer than I thought it would be.
Wishing I pulled the trigger on Sherk.
- The Wise Guy
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: +1.25 units
Overall: +.25 units
Just like last event I eeked out a positive result. Disappointing, but positive is positive. As Always I was sad to see Crocop lose, especially when Mir was being so passive. I really feel like CC could have taken this fight if he actually FOUGHT. It was like watching the JDS fight all over again. He threw 2 kicks and maybe 10 punches the entire fight.
The Stephens Guillard fight went pretty much like I expected, it was just a little closer than I thought it would be.
Wishing I pulled the trigger on Sherk.
- The Wise Guy
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
UFC 119
I currently have 2 bets for UFC 119:
Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units
Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units
Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.
I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units
Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units
Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.
I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Thursday, September 16, 2010
UFN 22 - results
Rousimar Palhares(-195) vs Nate Marquardt: -.5 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: +1.075 units
So the results ended up pretty much like I expected. I figured one of my two bets would come through, but I really didn't think they both would.
Ended the evening ahead .5075 units.
Cole looked good, and as I suspected his reach advantage proved to be an issue for Pearson.
The main event was very strange. I definitely think Palhares would have made it much more of a close fight had it not been for the bizarre circumstances that occured.
Definitely a coming out party for Charles Oliveira. That kid is a contender for sure. Extremely well rounded and dynamic. His bounce-off-the-cage takedown was amazing, as was the way he took the back to end it. Very good fight.
All in all pretty good fights.
I will have more on the next event soon.
-The Wise Guy
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: +1.075 units
So the results ended up pretty much like I expected. I figured one of my two bets would come through, but I really didn't think they both would.
Ended the evening ahead .5075 units.
Cole looked good, and as I suspected his reach advantage proved to be an issue for Pearson.
The main event was very strange. I definitely think Palhares would have made it much more of a close fight had it not been for the bizarre circumstances that occured.
Definitely a coming out party for Charles Oliveira. That kid is a contender for sure. Extremely well rounded and dynamic. His bounce-off-the-cage takedown was amazing, as was the way he took the back to end it. Very good fight.
All in all pretty good fights.
I will have more on the next event soon.
-The Wise Guy
Saturday, September 4, 2010
UFN 22 Bets
I have 2 dog bets for Ultimate Fight Night 22:
Rousimar Palhares(+195) vs Nate Marquardt: .5 units to win .95 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: .5 units to win 1.075 units
While Marquardt does have better striking and a better overall game than "paul harris", I do think Rousimar has better wrestling and will end up on top, at least a couple times during the fight. I doubt nate can threaten him from his back, and I feel like he has a legit chance of being submitted.
Ross pearson has shown some solid skills and a great overall game, but I think Cole is the most dangerous opponent he has faced, and had real finishing potential. Miller's strikes can hurt people, and I think Pearson may struggle with a reach disadvantage. Pearson has decent wrestling, but Cole is one of those fighters that is actually dangerous off his back, and can threaten submissions or reversals from any position. I do fear Miller's questionable chin however, even though Pearson doesn't have a lot of KOs to his record. I don't know if I am actually picking Miller to win outright here, but these odds seem way off to me. It is a decent step up in competition for Pearson, and Miller offers a lot of dangerous skill that he hasn't had to face before.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Rousimar Palhares(+195) vs Nate Marquardt: .5 units to win .95 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: .5 units to win 1.075 units
While Marquardt does have better striking and a better overall game than "paul harris", I do think Rousimar has better wrestling and will end up on top, at least a couple times during the fight. I doubt nate can threaten him from his back, and I feel like he has a legit chance of being submitted.
Ross pearson has shown some solid skills and a great overall game, but I think Cole is the most dangerous opponent he has faced, and had real finishing potential. Miller's strikes can hurt people, and I think Pearson may struggle with a reach disadvantage. Pearson has decent wrestling, but Cole is one of those fighters that is actually dangerous off his back, and can threaten submissions or reversals from any position. I do fear Miller's questionable chin however, even though Pearson doesn't have a lot of KOs to his record. I don't know if I am actually picking Miller to win outright here, but these odds seem way off to me. It is a decent step up in competition for Pearson, and Miller offers a lot of dangerous skill that he hasn't had to face before.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Monday, August 30, 2010
Bellator 26 and UFC 118 - Results
The only play I had for Bellator 26 came through for me:
Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly: +1 unit
The fight went just about like I thought it would. Ward scored early with a judo-throw takedown, and controlled the fight with her grappling, winning a unanimous decision.
UFC 118 wasn't as successful for me, as I went 0-2.
Kenny Florian(-130) vs Gray Maynard: -2 units
Marcus Davis(+165) vs Nate Diaz: -.5 units
I was just totally on the wrong side of the line with both od these fights. Kenny didn't seem as dedicated to immediately getting back to his feet as he did in the Guida fight, and when both fighters were on the feet it was very tentative.
Davis just had no answer for Diaz's reach advantage and awkward boxing style. He did hit Nate with a fair number of hard shots early in the fight, but his chin held up.
Definitely a disappointing event, but the losses weren't too bad, and were mitigated by my win from the Bellator event.
I'm still closing out August up 2.3 units, so still a solid month.
There are plenty of MMA events in September, so hopefully there will be some good odds on some of the fights. Stay tuned.
-The Wise Guy
Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly: +1 unit
The fight went just about like I thought it would. Ward scored early with a judo-throw takedown, and controlled the fight with her grappling, winning a unanimous decision.
UFC 118 wasn't as successful for me, as I went 0-2.
Kenny Florian(-130) vs Gray Maynard: -2 units
Marcus Davis(+165) vs Nate Diaz: -.5 units
I was just totally on the wrong side of the line with both od these fights. Kenny didn't seem as dedicated to immediately getting back to his feet as he did in the Guida fight, and when both fighters were on the feet it was very tentative.
Davis just had no answer for Diaz's reach advantage and awkward boxing style. He did hit Nate with a fair number of hard shots early in the fight, but his chin held up.
Definitely a disappointing event, but the losses weren't too bad, and were mitigated by my win from the Bellator event.
I'm still closing out August up 2.3 units, so still a solid month.
There are plenty of MMA events in September, so hopefully there will be some good odds on some of the fights. Stay tuned.
-The Wise Guy
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Bellator 26
I only have one bet so far on Bellator 26
Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly(-125): 1.05 units to win 1 unit
I think Daly is the slight favorite here simply due to her being the slightly larger of the two fighters having competed at higher weights, and her undefeated record. While Ward will most likely be smaller, she is strong and has enjoyed a significant strength advantage over her previous opponents, so I think in terms of pure physicality these two will be pretty evenly matched.
on top of that Ward is a multiple-time grappling champion in no-gi and gi. Her striking is technically sound, as is her overall technique in general. On the other hand Daly has appeared more sloppy in some of her bouts.
I think Ward is a more well-rounded, more technical fighter, and has benefitted from higher quality opposition in the past. I think she is more technical on the feet, and her grappling should allow her to control the fight and threaten with submissions, even if she ends up on the bottom.
-The Wise Guy
Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly(-125): 1.05 units to win 1 unit
I think Daly is the slight favorite here simply due to her being the slightly larger of the two fighters having competed at higher weights, and her undefeated record. While Ward will most likely be smaller, she is strong and has enjoyed a significant strength advantage over her previous opponents, so I think in terms of pure physicality these two will be pretty evenly matched.
on top of that Ward is a multiple-time grappling champion in no-gi and gi. Her striking is technically sound, as is her overall technique in general. On the other hand Daly has appeared more sloppy in some of her bouts.
I think Ward is a more well-rounded, more technical fighter, and has benefitted from higher quality opposition in the past. I think she is more technical on the feet, and her grappling should allow her to control the fight and threaten with submissions, even if she ends up on the bottom.
-The Wise Guy
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Strikeforce and UFC 118 and 119
I don't have any bets for Strikeforce tonight. If I was going to make a bet, it would be on Jacare @ -200 over Tim Kennedy. Noons is going to beat Gurgel, but the odds aren't great.
For UFC 118 I already have 2 units on Florian, and I just added another bet:
Marcus Davis (+165) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win .825 units
Though I think Nate will probably get the takedown at some point, he is usually content to trade with people. Davis has solid wrestling and much better striking. He is bigger stronger, faster, and has solid TD defense. He has enough submission savvy that getting taken down isn't like an automatic win for diaz either. I think he will be able to pull out a decision win here.
I also made another bet, for UFC 119, because I think the line might get worse:
Mirko Cro Cop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Crocop has excellent takedown defense, and Mir has never had amazing takedowns. Add to that the fact that Mirko should have a solid advantage in the striking, and it is a little interesting that he is the underdog in this fight. If somehow the odds get even better closer to fight time I will probably add another unit to this play, if he gets better than +200.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
For UFC 118 I already have 2 units on Florian, and I just added another bet:
Marcus Davis (+165) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win .825 units
Though I think Nate will probably get the takedown at some point, he is usually content to trade with people. Davis has solid wrestling and much better striking. He is bigger stronger, faster, and has solid TD defense. He has enough submission savvy that getting taken down isn't like an automatic win for diaz either. I think he will be able to pull out a decision win here.
I also made another bet, for UFC 119, because I think the line might get worse:
Mirko Cro Cop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Crocop has excellent takedown defense, and Mir has never had amazing takedowns. Add to that the fact that Mirko should have a solid advantage in the striking, and it is a little interesting that he is the underdog in this fight. If somehow the odds get even better closer to fight time I will probably add another unit to this play, if he gets better than +200.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Saturday, August 7, 2010
UFC 117 Results
Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: +3.15 units
Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: +1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: -1 unit
2-1 on bets, + 3.89 units
It is good to see that when I go back to my normal methods I can consistently get winning events again.
Not a bad night of bets at all. I wish I had bet more on Clay and Fitch, especially at those awesome odds. I was convinced they would win, but the odds were so off I thought maybe I was missing something and started to doubt myself a little. In the end, both fights went almost exactly as I thought (I thought Clay would get a UD, not a submission).
Hazelett didn't pull out the win, so I am glad I only put one unit there. Havn't seen the fight yet, but apparently it was TKO in the 2nd. Not sure if that was standing or from GNP though. That's two in a row for him, hopefully he bounces back.
Main event was crazy.
Matt Hughes had an awesome performance. I actually expected him to lose that fight, and he goes out there and completely dominates.
Decent event overall. Any positive event leaves me in a good mood.
-The Wise Guy
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
UFC 117 betting picks
As I wrote in an earlier post, I already have a bet on Jon fitch:
Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units
As of right now Fitch is at about -120. I would still make this bet at these odds.
My other action for this card is:
Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: 2 units to win 1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: 1 unit to win .87 units
Total: 6 units to win 5.76units
While Dos Anjos has a chance to get a submission for sure, Guida has shown incredible submission defense. The only times he has gotten submitted is when he has been hurt bad with punches. Dos Anjos is much better on the feet to be sure, but I don't think he can stop the takedowns and deal with Guida's pace for the distance. Guida by UD. I am a big fan of Guida's as well, so I would love to see him win here.
I am also a big Hazelett fan, and that is part of the reason I am betting on him here. I do think he will win though. I think he has a wrestling disadvantage but he is very dangerous with his BJJ and can certainly finish this fight from his back.
Other than these fights there isn't much on this card to bet. Saunders isn't a bad bet against hallman. He's a little high though, but I would bet him under -200. Hendricks will win, but its not worth it for those odds. When are they going to give him a top 10 opponent?
Should be a solid card overall. Can't wait!
-The Wise Guy
Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units
As of right now Fitch is at about -120. I would still make this bet at these odds.
My other action for this card is:
Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: 2 units to win 1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: 1 unit to win .87 units
Total: 6 units to win 5.76units
While Dos Anjos has a chance to get a submission for sure, Guida has shown incredible submission defense. The only times he has gotten submitted is when he has been hurt bad with punches. Dos Anjos is much better on the feet to be sure, but I don't think he can stop the takedowns and deal with Guida's pace for the distance. Guida by UD. I am a big fan of Guida's as well, so I would love to see him win here.
I am also a big Hazelett fan, and that is part of the reason I am betting on him here. I do think he will win though. I think he has a wrestling disadvantage but he is very dangerous with his BJJ and can certainly finish this fight from his back.
Other than these fights there isn't much on this card to bet. Saunders isn't a bad bet against hallman. He's a little high though, but I would bet him under -200. Hendricks will win, but its not worth it for those odds. When are they going to give him a top 10 opponent?
Should be a solid card overall. Can't wait!
-The Wise Guy
Sunday, July 4, 2010
UFC 116 - FLAWLESS VICTORY
SWEEP
Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: +2.5 units
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: +.825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: +.675 units
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: +1 unit
Total: 4-0 on bets, +5 units
Matt Brown put the fear in me with that solid d'arce attempt. Gave me the willies. Ultimately Lytle won by submission as I predicted.
The leben fight went exactly as I predicted: Sexyama would look good in the first round, but would tire quickly with Leben's toughness, physicality, and hard shots. The only thing I didn't call was him winning by sub, which is impressive against a fighter of Akiyama's caliber.
I got lucky that the Grove fight went my way. I would have said he won, but I really thought the judges would give Reljic the 2nd round. Its good too see that they are learning. Other than getting one takedown, he did NOTHING while on top, and ate a lot of shots.
I was wrong in my analysis of the main event. I thought whoever won would look easy. I figured Carwin would blast brock with his early storm, or Brock would get top position and pound him out. What I DIDN'T think would happen is that Brock would weather everything Carwin had, absorbing countless blows with his water-melon sized head, and come back in the second round to win by Sub. Although as soon as the first round was over I knew for sure Brock would win. Carwin had nothing left, and had noticeably slowed even by the end of the first round. Brock showed an ability to take some big punches, some versatility, and most importantly, heart.
NOTES:
Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: +2.5 units
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: +.825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: +.675 units
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: +1 unit
Total: 4-0 on bets, +5 units
Matt Brown put the fear in me with that solid d'arce attempt. Gave me the willies. Ultimately Lytle won by submission as I predicted.
The leben fight went exactly as I predicted: Sexyama would look good in the first round, but would tire quickly with Leben's toughness, physicality, and hard shots. The only thing I didn't call was him winning by sub, which is impressive against a fighter of Akiyama's caliber.
I got lucky that the Grove fight went my way. I would have said he won, but I really thought the judges would give Reljic the 2nd round. Its good too see that they are learning. Other than getting one takedown, he did NOTHING while on top, and ate a lot of shots.
I was wrong in my analysis of the main event. I thought whoever won would look easy. I figured Carwin would blast brock with his early storm, or Brock would get top position and pound him out. What I DIDN'T think would happen is that Brock would weather everything Carwin had, absorbing countless blows with his water-melon sized head, and come back in the second round to win by Sub. Although as soon as the first round was over I knew for sure Brock would win. Carwin had nothing left, and had noticeably slowed even by the end of the first round. Brock showed an ability to take some big punches, some versatility, and most importantly, heart.
NOTES:
- Where can I get me some of those big foam UFC hulk-hands? Hilarious.
- So glad to see Bonnar get the win. I was happy for him. and the post-fight psycho-stare pose was awesome.
- I forget who it was, but after one of the fights, somebody almost suffocted trying to put their shirt on. Sponsor-shirt by SUB
- I don't think there was a boring fight on this card. Great card overall.
- Sad to see Pellegrino lose, but man George is becoming a BEAST!
- The Wise Guy
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
UFC 116 UPDATE
Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: 5 units to win 2.5 units
How Could Mike brown win this fight?
Submission? Doubtful. I don't even know if Brown is purple belt level yet, and Lytle is a legit BB, Never submitted in 50 fights.
Top control for 3 rounds? Again, doubtful. Lytle's grappling is excellent. He has avoided being controlled by much better wrestlers and grapplers than Brown.
Knockout? Once again, not likely. Lytle is a 17-1 professional boxer. He has fast hands, solid power, and a good chin. His only 2 TKO stoppages in his 50 fights have come due to cuts. He has never been stopped from anything else. Considering the opposition he has faced, I doubt Brown will be the one to do it, despite his solid striking.
Outstriking for 3 rounds? This is the only possible way for brown to win IMO. Possible, not likely. Technical striking advantage goes to lytle. Cardio advantage also probably goes to Lytle.
To top it all off, Lytle already beat Brown once, three years ago. Guillotine in the 2nd. My money (literally) is on Lytle, especially at these gift odds.
I am betting enough to basically cover the rest of my bets. I should have waited a little longer on lesnar as his odds keep going down.
Also, I don't want to put any more units at risk with this card, but at +160 Pellegrino is an awesome bet.
-The Wise Guy
How Could Mike brown win this fight?
Submission? Doubtful. I don't even know if Brown is purple belt level yet, and Lytle is a legit BB, Never submitted in 50 fights.
Top control for 3 rounds? Again, doubtful. Lytle's grappling is excellent. He has avoided being controlled by much better wrestlers and grapplers than Brown.
Knockout? Once again, not likely. Lytle is a 17-1 professional boxer. He has fast hands, solid power, and a good chin. His only 2 TKO stoppages in his 50 fights have come due to cuts. He has never been stopped from anything else. Considering the opposition he has faced, I doubt Brown will be the one to do it, despite his solid striking.
Outstriking for 3 rounds? This is the only possible way for brown to win IMO. Possible, not likely. Technical striking advantage goes to lytle. Cardio advantage also probably goes to Lytle.
To top it all off, Lytle already beat Brown once, three years ago. Guillotine in the 2nd. My money (literally) is on Lytle, especially at these gift odds.
I am betting enough to basically cover the rest of my bets. I should have waited a little longer on lesnar as his odds keep going down.
Also, I don't want to put any more units at risk with this card, but at +160 Pellegrino is an awesome bet.
-The Wise Guy
Monday, June 28, 2010
UFC 116 Lesnar vs Carwin - Betting Picks
Right now I have the following bets:
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: .5 units to win .825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: .5 units to win .675 units
I am going to cover these with a bet to win 1 unit on Lesnar, but I am waiting because his odds are slowly getting better. Right now they are at about -157.
UPDATE: I don't know how often I will be able to check odds over the next few days, so I went ahead and locked in Lesnar at -155.
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Total for UFC 116: Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units
LESNAR vs CARWIN: What it comes down to is Carwin is just not very well rounded. He has inhuman punching power, and has been able to use it effectively over and over again. But that is ALL he has. His wrestling is overrated (he tends to bull-rush in and stumble around) and I believe most success in controlling his mostly less-than-stellar opposition is due to his size and strength. Even if I am wrong, his wrestling on paper, and in the ring, doesn't hold a candle to Lesnar's. I have seen nothing to suggest that he will be able to stop Lesnar's take downs.
Carwin's striking, while almost impossibly powerful, is stiff slow, and not technical. I actually believe lesnar has shown better technical striking for the most part. Carwin also takes a lot of hits, and was getting outstruck by Gonzaga and Neil Wain (who) before landing his knockout punches.
basically Carwin HAS to get his patented "knockout within 2 minutes" to win this fight. As long as Lesnar just shoots a double right out of the gate, and drives halfway across the cage a al vintage Koscheck, I think the fight is his. I don't think Carwin's poor defense will let him survive being under lesnar for very long.
Of course carwin as proven to be very good at doing just what he needs to to win this fight, and Lesnar is coming off a long layoff with a hospital stay and surgery, so there are some intangibles.
But the odds are very good, and I will only be risking about 1.5 - 1.7 units, unless the odds change drastically.
LEBEN vs SEXYAMA: The Sexy one I believe will have his hands full with this fight. While I think he has probably better technical striking and is, overall, a more well rounded, technically skilled fighter, I think Leben poses some unique problems for him.
For starters, Akiyama is undersized for the middleweight division. We saw this be somewhat of a problem for him against belcher. Leben also has shown excellent takedown defense, especially lately in his fight against Simpson, so Akiyama will have a difficult time taking it to the ground. Leben will have to watch out for the judo throws though.
I think this fight will play out on the feet, with a fair amount of clinch work. Akiyama will get theh better of the striking exchanges early, but without much damage to leben. after the first round I think the clinch work with the bigger leben, along with the occasional Leben-bomb that gets through, will start to wear on him. I think the 2 and third rounds will go to leben, and he will take a UD.
GROVE vs RELJIC
No real in-depth thoughts behind this one. I just think Kendall has enough to get him to the ground and submit him.
None of these fights are super one sided, but the odds are cheap and I have structured it so I can push in multiple scenarios. As long as I win any 2 I will push or come very close (depending on the Lesnar odds). if lesnar wins I will at least push.
Should be some interesting fights!!
-The Wise Guy
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: .5 units to win .825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: .5 units to win .675 units
I am going to cover these with a bet to win 1 unit on Lesnar, but I am waiting because his odds are slowly getting better. Right now they are at about -157.
UPDATE: I don't know how often I will be able to check odds over the next few days, so I went ahead and locked in Lesnar at -155.
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Total for UFC 116: Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units
LESNAR vs CARWIN: What it comes down to is Carwin is just not very well rounded. He has inhuman punching power, and has been able to use it effectively over and over again. But that is ALL he has. His wrestling is overrated (he tends to bull-rush in and stumble around) and I believe most success in controlling his mostly less-than-stellar opposition is due to his size and strength. Even if I am wrong, his wrestling on paper, and in the ring, doesn't hold a candle to Lesnar's. I have seen nothing to suggest that he will be able to stop Lesnar's take downs.
Carwin's striking, while almost impossibly powerful, is stiff slow, and not technical. I actually believe lesnar has shown better technical striking for the most part. Carwin also takes a lot of hits, and was getting outstruck by Gonzaga and Neil Wain (who) before landing his knockout punches.
basically Carwin HAS to get his patented "knockout within 2 minutes" to win this fight. As long as Lesnar just shoots a double right out of the gate, and drives halfway across the cage a al vintage Koscheck, I think the fight is his. I don't think Carwin's poor defense will let him survive being under lesnar for very long.
Of course carwin as proven to be very good at doing just what he needs to to win this fight, and Lesnar is coming off a long layoff with a hospital stay and surgery, so there are some intangibles.
But the odds are very good, and I will only be risking about 1.5 - 1.7 units, unless the odds change drastically.
LEBEN vs SEXYAMA: The Sexy one I believe will have his hands full with this fight. While I think he has probably better technical striking and is, overall, a more well rounded, technically skilled fighter, I think Leben poses some unique problems for him.
For starters, Akiyama is undersized for the middleweight division. We saw this be somewhat of a problem for him against belcher. Leben also has shown excellent takedown defense, especially lately in his fight against Simpson, so Akiyama will have a difficult time taking it to the ground. Leben will have to watch out for the judo throws though.
I think this fight will play out on the feet, with a fair amount of clinch work. Akiyama will get theh better of the striking exchanges early, but without much damage to leben. after the first round I think the clinch work with the bigger leben, along with the occasional Leben-bomb that gets through, will start to wear on him. I think the 2 and third rounds will go to leben, and he will take a UD.
GROVE vs RELJIC
No real in-depth thoughts behind this one. I just think Kendall has enough to get him to the ground and submit him.
None of these fights are super one sided, but the odds are cheap and I have structured it so I can push in multiple scenarios. As long as I win any 2 I will push or come very close (depending on the Lesnar odds). if lesnar wins I will at least push.
Should be some interesting fights!!
-The Wise Guy
Monday, June 21, 2010
Early Odds - Fitch and Florian
There are a couple of lines on some upcoming events that I think are just too good to pass up.
Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves
Simply put, there is just no way Fitch should anything other than a solid favorite here. He is probably THE most consistent performer in all of mma. Other than the loss to GSP, he has continued to do his thing, which is dominating everybody else.
In the meantime, Thiago has been doing his thing, and seems to have gotten better at what he was already good at. But, just like Art Jimmerson didn't lose to Royce because he wasn't a good enough boxer, Alves didn't lose to Fitch because his striking wasn't good enough. Despite his improvement he is just not going to be able to control the fight. I don't think Fitch will get anywhere near finishing him this time, but Fitch's game should be able to stop him from mounting much of an offense. When Alves isn't getting taken down or getting back up, he is going to be defending takedowns from the clinch. And I think he will be able to defend it well at first, but I don't think he can handle Fitch's "grind".
When all is said and done, there is no reason to think Fitch won't be able to grind out a decision here. And with that being said , +105 is a STEAL.
MY BET: Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units
Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard
Gray Maynard performed very well since his loss on the Ultimate Fighter, and remains undefeated. Recently he seems like he may have come down with a moderate case of 'boxitis', which caused him to take a split decision over Nate Diaz when he should have been able to solidly control that fight. Now he may have been worried about going to the ground with Diaz, and purposefully kept the fight on the feet. Well, he has just as much to worry about in the ground game of Kenny florian, and much more to worry about in his standup. And while other people seem to be able to only strike OR defend the takedown, Kenny seems to be able to successfully defend the takedown while still mounting a successful offense.
When all is said and done, Maynard has a lot more to worry about than Kenny. He is one of the most well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, has burned through top competition with ease, and is a deal at these odds.
MY BET: Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard: 2 units to win 1.48 units
I have a feeling both of these lines will get worse, so jump on it.
-The Wise Guy
Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves
Simply put, there is just no way Fitch should anything other than a solid favorite here. He is probably THE most consistent performer in all of mma. Other than the loss to GSP, he has continued to do his thing, which is dominating everybody else.
In the meantime, Thiago has been doing his thing, and seems to have gotten better at what he was already good at. But, just like Art Jimmerson didn't lose to Royce because he wasn't a good enough boxer, Alves didn't lose to Fitch because his striking wasn't good enough. Despite his improvement he is just not going to be able to control the fight. I don't think Fitch will get anywhere near finishing him this time, but Fitch's game should be able to stop him from mounting much of an offense. When Alves isn't getting taken down or getting back up, he is going to be defending takedowns from the clinch. And I think he will be able to defend it well at first, but I don't think he can handle Fitch's "grind".
When all is said and done, there is no reason to think Fitch won't be able to grind out a decision here. And with that being said , +105 is a STEAL.
MY BET: Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units
Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard
Gray Maynard performed very well since his loss on the Ultimate Fighter, and remains undefeated. Recently he seems like he may have come down with a moderate case of 'boxitis', which caused him to take a split decision over Nate Diaz when he should have been able to solidly control that fight. Now he may have been worried about going to the ground with Diaz, and purposefully kept the fight on the feet. Well, he has just as much to worry about in the ground game of Kenny florian, and much more to worry about in his standup. And while other people seem to be able to only strike OR defend the takedown, Kenny seems to be able to successfully defend the takedown while still mounting a successful offense.
When all is said and done, Maynard has a lot more to worry about than Kenny. He is one of the most well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, has burned through top competition with ease, and is a deal at these odds.
MY BET: Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard: 2 units to win 1.48 units
I have a feeling both of these lines will get worse, so jump on it.
-The Wise Guy
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - SWEEP
RESULTS
Hail to the king:
Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: +1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: +1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: + .775 units
BETS: 3-0, +3.15 units
I said I was gonna bet Jardine if he made it past+150, and he never did. So I never bet it, and I'm glad I didn't. Although I do feel he got screwed. With the point deduction that fight should have been a draw. I don't even think he should have gotten a point taken. People get poked all the time, and RARELY is a point deducted.
I think Leben got a generous stoppage in a technical sense, but I doubt the outcome would have been different had they let it go a few more seconds. I wasn't complaining.
The Siver/Fisher fight went about as I thought it would, and his slight edge played out.
On UFC fantasy I called Court McGee by choke in the 3rd, so the fight went almost exactly as I had anticipated.
I also called Leben by tko in the second, but I didn't get max points because I guessed it would happen in the 3rd minute instead of the 4th. How incredibly gay is that? I call the fight EXACTLY right and lose points because I was off on the finish time by less than 60 seconds. Their scoring system is horrible.
REFLECTIONS
This card provided some much needed units and an equally important morale boost. It is amazing mow much of a confidence booster it can be to have a successful night like this. I am definitely going to continue to do what I have in the beginning and bet few fights, and only those that I really feel I have a good handle on the outcome.
The 'bet almost every fight' strategy proved to be a very expensive experiment. I just wish I had done poorly when I was doing it notionally so I wouldn't have tried it with real bets.
I realized betting a lot of fights is like playing a lot of hands in poker; yeah you CAN win on any hand, but when there is no penalty for passing why not wait for the hands where you KNOW you have a significant advantage?
I am going back to my original strategy, which was decidedly simple: End the night positive. At all costs. Regardless of value, odds, whatever. The only goal is to gain units and NEVER lose them. This meant I bet WAY less fights, and skipped some cards altogether. But you know what? it worked. And it is much better to not make any bets at all than to lose a unit or two on some stupid speculating 'value' bets.
-The Wise Guy
Hail to the king:
Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: +1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: +1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: + .775 units
BETS: 3-0, +3.15 units
I said I was gonna bet Jardine if he made it past+150, and he never did. So I never bet it, and I'm glad I didn't. Although I do feel he got screwed. With the point deduction that fight should have been a draw. I don't even think he should have gotten a point taken. People get poked all the time, and RARELY is a point deducted.
I think Leben got a generous stoppage in a technical sense, but I doubt the outcome would have been different had they let it go a few more seconds. I wasn't complaining.
The Siver/Fisher fight went about as I thought it would, and his slight edge played out.
On UFC fantasy I called Court McGee by choke in the 3rd, so the fight went almost exactly as I had anticipated.
I also called Leben by tko in the second, but I didn't get max points because I guessed it would happen in the 3rd minute instead of the 4th. How incredibly gay is that? I call the fight EXACTLY right and lose points because I was off on the finish time by less than 60 seconds. Their scoring system is horrible.
REFLECTIONS
This card provided some much needed units and an equally important morale boost. It is amazing mow much of a confidence booster it can be to have a successful night like this. I am definitely going to continue to do what I have in the beginning and bet few fights, and only those that I really feel I have a good handle on the outcome.
The 'bet almost every fight' strategy proved to be a very expensive experiment. I just wish I had done poorly when I was doing it notionally so I wouldn't have tried it with real bets.
I realized betting a lot of fights is like playing a lot of hands in poker; yeah you CAN win on any hand, but when there is no penalty for passing why not wait for the hands where you KNOW you have a significant advantage?
I am going back to my original strategy, which was decidedly simple: End the night positive. At all costs. Regardless of value, odds, whatever. The only goal is to gain units and NEVER lose them. This meant I bet WAY less fights, and skipped some cards altogether. But you know what? it worked. And it is much better to not make any bets at all than to lose a unit or two on some stupid speculating 'value' bets.
-The Wise Guy
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Me and Heath "The Texas Hold-em Crazy Horse" Herring
As I have mentioned before, I am currently deployed to Kuwait.
Sometimes celebrities or bands come through here on USO tours. The latest was to promote the "Circle of Pain" movie, and they brought Heath Herring, Bai Ling, and whoever the hell the other guy in the movie was.
I ran into Heath Herring at the USO poker tournament next door to where they were showing the movie, and got to play some hold-em with him. He's pretty good too, I might add.
I got a picture with him, but the douche that took it must have had some sort of palsy because it came out all blurry. You can still tell its him, and it sort of obscures how much of a semi-pubescent man-child I look like next to him.
- The Wise Guy
Sometimes celebrities or bands come through here on USO tours. The latest was to promote the "Circle of Pain" movie, and they brought Heath Herring, Bai Ling, and whoever the hell the other guy in the movie was.
I ran into Heath Herring at the USO poker tournament next door to where they were showing the movie, and got to play some hold-em with him. He's pretty good too, I might add.
I got a picture with him, but the douche that took it must have had some sort of palsy because it came out all blurry. You can still tell its him, and it sort of obscures how much of a semi-pubescent man-child I look like next to him.
- The Wise Guy
Ultimate Finale
BETS:
Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: 2.15 units to win 1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win 1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: .5 units to win .775 units
I am watching the line on Jardine. It keeps getting better. if he gets to +150 or better I will put .5 units on him. maybe 1 unit.
Based on the previous fight I think there is value on Baczynsky at his current odds of +190.
Attonitio isn't bad at -120 either, and I like Bryant as a dog against Noke. I am not betting any of these though, for the simple reason I am trying to limit my exposure for this card. I have been having a terrible run of it lately, and I'd like to see if I can come up positive for once.
- The Wise Guy
Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: 2.15 units to win 1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win 1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: .5 units to win .775 units
I am watching the line on Jardine. It keeps getting better. if he gets to +150 or better I will put .5 units on him. maybe 1 unit.
Based on the previous fight I think there is value on Baczynsky at his current odds of +190.
Attonitio isn't bad at -120 either, and I like Bryant as a dog against Noke. I am not betting any of these though, for the simple reason I am trying to limit my exposure for this card. I have been having a terrible run of it lately, and I'd like to see if I can come up positive for once.
- The Wise Guy
Saturday, June 12, 2010
UFC 115 results
Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit
Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Total: 3-2, -.9 units
Did ok with my picks, but it seems like I can't get a positive event to save my life.
But I have never been so happy to lose a bet. Crocop looked awesome! And not just because he won. He looked like he wanted to be there, like he wanted the win. He fought back from being hurt early, mixed up his attacks, and won by submission!
I'm stoked. I have been a huge Crocop fan for years and lately he had just seemed like he had lost the will to fight. So glad to see him back in classic form.
The Tyson griffin loss is what kept me from having a + event. I knew I didn't like those odds. I haven't seen the fight, so I don't know how close it really was, but Evan Dunham is the real deal.
I will not take him lightly in the future.
Pyle looked good. I was a little hesitant with that bet because I couldn't tell exactly how I thought he would win, I just new he would be able to slightly out-class lennox in several areas. Lennox is much more one-dimensional. Turns out I was right.
Carlos condit performed like I hoped. Maybe lucky with the stoppage, because I don't know how a decision would have gone. He may have barely lost the first 2 rounds. This is why the fight as a whole type scoring is better. In my mind, obviously the domination in the 3rd round more than makes up for getting slightly outpointed for 2 rounds, but taking no damage. But even if he got a 10-8 it may have been a draw. Most of that is due to Condit's go-for-the finish style, which I love. He will sacrifice position and take those risks. It doesn't lend itself well to the 10 point must scoring, but I wish more fighters would fight that way.
The Rich / Chuck fight went exactly like I thought it would.
Thoughts:
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit
Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Total: 3-2, -.9 units
Did ok with my picks, but it seems like I can't get a positive event to save my life.
But I have never been so happy to lose a bet. Crocop looked awesome! And not just because he won. He looked like he wanted to be there, like he wanted the win. He fought back from being hurt early, mixed up his attacks, and won by submission!
I'm stoked. I have been a huge Crocop fan for years and lately he had just seemed like he had lost the will to fight. So glad to see him back in classic form.
The Tyson griffin loss is what kept me from having a + event. I knew I didn't like those odds. I haven't seen the fight, so I don't know how close it really was, but Evan Dunham is the real deal.
I will not take him lightly in the future.
Pyle looked good. I was a little hesitant with that bet because I couldn't tell exactly how I thought he would win, I just new he would be able to slightly out-class lennox in several areas. Lennox is much more one-dimensional. Turns out I was right.
Carlos condit performed like I hoped. Maybe lucky with the stoppage, because I don't know how a decision would have gone. He may have barely lost the first 2 rounds. This is why the fight as a whole type scoring is better. In my mind, obviously the domination in the 3rd round more than makes up for getting slightly outpointed for 2 rounds, but taking no damage. But even if he got a 10-8 it may have been a draw. Most of that is due to Condit's go-for-the finish style, which I love. He will sacrifice position and take those risks. It doesn't lend itself well to the 10 point must scoring, but I wish more fighters would fight that way.
The Rich / Chuck fight went exactly like I thought it would.
Thoughts:
- Hat stealers!! haha
- They need to speed up how long it takes to introduce the main event. I ducked out right when Goldie said "its time for our main event", and I had time to shower, shave, and jerk off 3 times to replays of Mirko's fight before the main event started. They seriously take 10-15 minutes, time it.
- Pretty good event overall. No boring fights.
- Wishing I had taken the plunge on Kampmann and Rothwell. Kampmann looked really sharp.
Another event coming up soon! That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Thursday, June 10, 2010
More UFC 115 action
Some more bets:
Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit
I was hoping The Crow would come in as a favorite, but no dice.
I think Thiago will win, but the odds are getting close to it being a good deal on Kampmann. If he gets past +200 I will probably put half a unit on him.
Franklin came down a little actually, bummer. I should have waited.
that's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit
I was hoping The Crow would come in as a favorite, but no dice.
I think Thiago will win, but the odds are getting close to it being a good deal on Kampmann. If he gets past +200 I will probably put half a unit on him.
Franklin came down a little actually, bummer. I should have waited.
that's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
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