UFC 130 - Rampage vs Hamill

First of all, our evil fascist government has seized and shut down Bookmaker.com (along with all the poker sites) where I do all my MMA bets. I don't know which other sites are still up and running. The euro Bodog site still appears to be operational, so that is where I am getting the lines from for today. Obviously I will have no actual bets for this card since Bookmaker was shut down.

Rampage(-270) vs Hamill(+210)

Rampage is my pick to win here, but you can't take him at these odds, not after how he performed in the Rashad fight. I think he will be more engaged in this fight, and hopefully in better shape, but there is a definite possibility that Hamill wins a boring UD. I wouldn't put action on this fight, as I don't see a clear path the fight will take, but a small bet on Hamill wouldn't be a bad idea.

Although I think Rampage wins by stuffing the takedowns, and controlling the standup with faster, more technical striking, and more power.


I like Kendall Grove at close odds against Tim Boetsch. He has more range, better cardio, and is very dangerous off his back if the Barbarian gets him down. I see Kendall getting past Boetsch's slow, stiff standup and actually hurting him on the feet, before following him to the ground and getting the submission win. This would be my bet for the night.

Kendall Grove(-140) vs Tim Boetsch(+110): 2 units to win 1.43 units




I am leaning towards Big Country Roy Nelson(+110) in his fight with Frank Mir(-140), but Frank Mir is so unpredictable. He either looks invincible, or like a total pushover. Hard to say where the fight will go also. I think Nelson has better technical standup, but less power. Hard to say who will rule the clinch. Neither are super good with takedowns, but both are decent at defending them, so other than from the clinch, I don't see this fight playing out too much on the ground, so I give a slight edge to Big Country. I would want him to be slightly more of a dog to bet it though. If you can get him for +160 or better I would take the plunge for a unit. He is my pick to win though, I just don't have a clear path for the fight in my head, which always makes it hard to bet on.

I think Thiago Alves (-250) should win, but Rick Story(+190) has confounded me constantly and won every time I bet against him. I don't think he can do what Fitch or GSP did, but he will sure be trying. I officially pick Thiago to win by UD after frustrating Story with excellent TD defense, and brutal standup.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 129 - GSP vs Shields

Shields is an excellent fighter, and his record proves that. Unbeaten in something like 6 years. THe problem is, styles make fights, as they say. And I think GSP is tailor-made to beat Jake Shield's style. GSP has much better striking, and his elite level wrestling should allow him to keep the fight standing and ruin SHields on the feet. Shields has world-class grappling, and has shown an ability to control some excellent fighters. But I think GSP can do enough to at least stay alive if he does somehow end up on his back. Shields couldn't catch kampmann in or Henderson in his last couple fights, and I think GSP has sub defense that is on par with them at least. The cardio will also be a major issue. GSP has the best in the business, AND this is a five round fight. Shields tends to fade even in 3 round fights, so GSP will eat him alive in the championship rounds.

In fact I feel like GSP will be able to end his string of decision victories and get the finish in the 4th or 5th round, via TKO.

Although the odds are steep with GSP at -450, I can't pass on what is such an obviously bad style match-up for shields.

my bets:

GSP(-450) vs Jake Shields: 5 units to win 1.11 units

Randy Couture(+280) vs Lyoto Machida: .5 units to win 1.4 units

Randy has shown to be very good at finding ways to beat people's styles, so he can't be discounted in this fight. Machida is faster and has better standup, and good takedown defense, but I don't see why randy should be almost a 3:1 dog here. I think there is a decent chance he can either find a way to close the distance without being counterpunched to death, or win a decision simply by pushing the pace. Like it or not, there will likely be an unconscious 'handicap' given to Randy by the judges due to the fact that he is older, and Machida has what appears to some to be a timid style, with him sometimes 'running away'. Which means if this goes to anything other than an obvious decision, Couture has a chance to steal it. That fact alone makes +280 on Couture an interesting decision.

I don't really see any other lines I like that much. I think Nate Diaz will win, and he is like +115. I think Hominick is undervalued. I can't make up my mind about the Brilz/Matyushenko or Henderson/Bocek fights. If I HAD to pick I would go with Matyushenko and Henderson, but I am not very confident in those picks. I would stay away from betting on those fights unless you are seeing something I am missing.

Should be a good night of fights! for the first time ever, ALL the fights are being shown, either on facebook, Spike, or the Pay per-view. And don't forget the earlier start time of 9pm EST.

Until next time,

- The Wise Guy

Strikeforce - Diaz vs Daley

Paul Daley is a very dangerous fighter, but he is way too one-dimensional for somebody like Diaz. The only reason the lines are this close is because Diaz has a tendency to try standing with everybody. He has a great chin and even if he gets rocked, he has a great ability to grab subs even still. See the fight with Gomi.

Diaz just has way more ways to win this fight. Daley would basically HAVE to get the knockout to win here. It's what he does, but I think nick is too much for him here.

Nick Diaz(-215) vs Paul Daley: 3 units to win 1.4 units

I think Melendez will will a UD, and Jardine will probably get knocked out (again). I hope fancy pants takes aoki, but he was in too many bad spots last fight against somebody who isn't nearly the sub artist that aoki is. I think he gets submitted here. with Aoki at -225 you may want some action there. I think the line is about right, with maybe a little value for Aoki.


That's all for now. Enjoy the fights!

-The Wise Guy

UFC on Versus Results; +1 Unit

UFC on Versus was a pretty good night of fights. Definitely entertaining.

I only had action on one fight, but it came through for us in a big way. It's always good to know you won less than a minute into the fight.

Mark Munoz(-180) vs CB Dollaway: +1 Unit

I was pretty much spot on in my prediction for the main event, with Diego winning a unanimous decision after a good first round for Kampmann. Too bad though, I would have liked to see Martin win.

That's all for now. There is a lot of MMA coming up Bellator, and 2 more UFC events just this month. It's a good time to be an MMA fan!


-The Wise Guy

UFC on Versus 3 - Diego Sanchez Vs Martin Kampmann Betting Picks

I don't have time to do a full analysis right now, but I only have one play right now for this event:

Mark Munoz(-180) vs CB Dollaway: 1.8 Units to win 1 Unit

I think he gets it done here.

I think Diego will probably get the win here, with this fight going down a lot like his fight with Thiago. First round could see Kampmann looking impressive, but I see Diego getting it done with his grappling control and pace. I think the odds are about right, but Diego is a small dog so you may want to put a play on him if you agree. I hope Kampmann wins though, I am a fan.

Don't really see any other lines on this card that I like.

FIghts should be good though! Any Free MMA is awesome!

-The Wise Guy

UFC 127 Results: +.93 Units

The main event ended a little strangely, but luckily it was at least a push so we didn't lose any units. Besides that, we went 1-1 on dog bets, ending the night +.93 units

Jon Fitch (-210) vs BJ Penn: PUSH
Dennis Siver (+285) vs George Sotiropoulos: + 1.43 units
Jorge Rivera(+275) vs Michael Bisping: - .5 units

The Siver fight played out as I thought was possible. He was even better at avoiding the takedown than I expected.

Rivera showed some flashes of promise, but there is no way to tell how much that illegal knee took out of him. He could have said he couldn't continue and he would have won by DQ. He is tough, props. Cost him the fight, though.

Ebersole had a great performance. Surprising upset there, against a very very tough chris lytle.
Decent card overall. Always good to end the night up some units. Look forward to the next one! I will let you know what the plays are.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 127: BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch - Betting Picks and Analysis

I have 3 picks for tomorrow: an anchor bet on the main event and two smaller dog bets.

Jon Fitch (-210) vs BJ Penn: 3 units to win 1.43 units
Dennis Siver (+285) vs George Sotiropoulos: .5 units to win 1.43 units
Jorge Rivera(+275) vs Michael Bisping: .5 units to win 1.38 units

Total: Risking 4 units to win 4.24 units


In the main event I think BJ Penn is being overvalued due to popularity, and a general recognition of his skills. His recent performances (at lightweight, no less) offer no reason why the odds should be this close for this fight (at welterweight) against one of the most consistent performers in the entire sport. Jon Fitch is basically tailor made to beat BJ Penn. Unless Fitch foolishly tries to box with Penn for the entire fight, he will win. I imagine the first round being competitive, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see BJ win it. but despite him being 'in the best shape of his life' (as usual...) he will not be able to keep up with Fitch's pace for 3 rounds. Fitch by unanimous decision.

BJ Penn is live against anybody, but Fitch at -200 against anybody at welterweight (not named GSP) is a line you want to have some money on.


George Sotiropoulos is a beast and has been blazing through some stiff competition in on his way to a 7-0 record in the UFC he is for REAL. I DO think he will win this fight. However, Siver has the style to give him problems. We saw George get knocked out on The Ultimate Fighter, and Siver has some of the best kickboxing in the division. He also has great TD defense and underrated grappling. George's takedowns are solid but not crazy-good, but positional grappling is phenomenal, and if (when, lets be honest) this fight gets to the ground he will be putting Siver in tough spots. For almost 3 to 1 I am willing to throw a bit on the chance Siver can sprawl and brawl his way to a split decision or perhaps get a big KO.



In the Rivera / Bisping fight, I see bisping winning, but Rivera hits hard and has heart, and could give Bisping trouble simply by staying in the fight and always pushing forward. Bisping occasionally exhibits bad habits as well, like circling to his opponent's power hand, and that could get him into trouble with somebody with decent power. Overall I think Bisping is the more well-rounded opponent, and will probably win a decision. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take this fight to the ground midway through round 1, and keep doing it for the rest of the fight (which would be the best gameplan, IMO. That being said, I see no reason why Rivera should be an almost 3 to 1 dog.

I am betting that at least one of the two dog bets will come through. There are ALWAYS some upsets on every card, so the key is to pick fights where you see a specific way the upset COULD happen, and happen to also be giving good odds. I think both of my dog bets fall into this category.

I don't see lines I like really for any other fight. Pearson/fisher should be interesting, as they are almost identical fighters. I think Fisher takes more hits and shows damage more, which may get him the butt-end of a decision. I do think he has the better ground game, but I doubt this fight will go there.

I think Noke, Lytle, Gustaffson, and Ring will win.

Zhang seems maybe overvalued for his debut. SOmetimes people appear like monsters in other orgs, but it is because the competition isn't as good. Even the low-level UFC fighters are pretty damn good, and Zhang went 1-1 in the WEC. Only play here would be a dog bet on Reinhardt.

UPDATE: You know, when I read 'reinhardt' for some reason I was thinking of somebody else. When I saw his picture I was like, wait a sec, that's the guy that got beat by Lauzon in like 30 seconds. I checked his record again and although impressive on the surface, most of his opponents have losing records. At least the fight is 145, since he is undersized for 155, but still, I wouldn't put a dog bet here guys.

Hunt is just an enigma. No reason why he should be sucking quite as bad as he has been, so who knows how this will go. I assume Tuscherer will win based on Hunt's last few performances, but I have never really been that impressed with "The Crowbar" either, so I wouldn't put anything on him at these odds.

Anyway, should be a good night of fights, with a lot of free prelims on facebook and ION. Thanks Dana!

-The Wise Guy

UFC 126

I only have one small play for this card:

Ryan Bader (+235) vs Jon Jones: .5 units to win 1.175 units

Bones is good to be sure, and I do think he takes this, but there is no excuse for having bader being this much of a dog against him.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

UFN 23 Quick Pick

I just made this play for UFN 23

Evan Dunham(-235) vs Melvin Guillard: 4 units to win 1.7 units

Jump on this, the line will probably get worse. Only way melvin wins this would be with one hit KO. Possible with him, but unlikely.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 125 update

More of the lines have been posted for UFC 125, and some are worth taking a look at. So far my plays for this event are:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit
Marcus Davis(+205) vs Jeremy Stephens: 1 unit to win 2.05 units

Total: 2.65 units to win 3.05 units

I think Clay will fight smart and avoid trading, and there is no way Gomi can keep up with his pace for 3 whole rounds. I think he will be able to defend with relative success for the first round, but as long as Guida doesn't get KO'd early he will wear down Gomi and get a UD or late stoppage. This line has actually gotten slightly better, with Guida at -160 right now at Bookmaker.

I don't see any reason why Marcus davis is a 2 to 1 dog against Stephens. Marcus is at least equal in power and speed, and has better, more diverse technical boxing, better wrestling, and better submissions. I think Davis gets the better of the exchanges with more technical combos and by mixing up his hands more.


I actually think Frankie Edgar will win, but not strongly enough to bet it.

I think Leben has value at -165

I think Thiago Silva will win, line is about right though.

I'd love to see Baroni win, but man I just don't know. His cardio is SO bad

I think Antonio McKee will should get a pretty straightforward win. Probably still has value at -225. Volkmann hasn't impressed me thus far.


That's all for now. Can't wait for the fights!


- The Wise Guy

UFC 125

There are a lot of fights on this card with close odds. That's a good thing if you have a strong feeling about any of the fights, because you are getting a good deal. However, it also means the fights are harder to pick.

I may make more bets as the fights get closer but for now I only have one bet:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit

Gomi has decent wrestling/takedown defense, but I don't think he can keep up with Guida's pace for more than a round. I think he will control Gomi and bust him up on the ground for a decision win.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

December Results

Ultimate Finale Results:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: -4 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: -.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: -.5 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: + .7 units

Total: - 4.3 units

Hendricks losing the decision really tanked the event for me. Otherwise I would have been at +1.7.

Luckily now I am back in the United States with decent internet and will be able to follow the events more closely and do more research, so hopefully that will see my results improve, as they have suffered slightly recently.

For UFC 124 I had only one bet:

Thiago Alves(-300) vs John Howard: 3 units to win 1

Result: +1 unit.

I was debating whether I should post the bet because I didn't have a chance to do it before the event, and I don't want anybody thinking I was being dishonest or something. Ultimately I have decided to post it, because this blog is mainly for my personal record keeping anyway, and its not some crazy unrealistic bet like saying after that fact that I had 5 units on Serra to beat GSP or something.

Anyway, the Thiago bet helped offset the losses from the ultimate finale somewhat, but it still wasn't a great month for me.

New years resolution: win more money!

Ultimate Finale

Here are my plays for the Ultimate fighter Finale:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: 4 units to win 2 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: .5 units to win 1.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: .5 units to win 1.085 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: 1 unit to win .7 units

Total at risk: 6 units to win 5.285 units

we'll see what happens.



- The Wise Guy

RESULTS

George Sotiropolous(-225) vs Joe Lauzon: +1.33 units
Matt Brown(+130) vs Brian Foster: -1.3 units

So I went 1-1 on bets for a grand total of +.03 units, so it was basically a push.

I was correct in my assessment that both BJ Penn and Rampage had value, although I did think Machida should have gotten the decision in that fight.

I really wish I had put something on Penn. I don't have a lot of time right now as I am finishing up here overseas and getting ready to come home, and if I had more time and faster internet I would have put something on him for sure, and that would have given me a better outcome. Anyway, it is what it is. Its better than a losing event.

Starting in mid-December I will be able to devote more time to MMA, so I should have more consistent posts AND better results. Can't wait!


-The Wise Guy

UFC Bets

Just wanted to quickly post my UFC bets for the next event. Its going to be short and sweet because my middle-eastern internet is being slow right now.

George Longgreeklastname(-225) vs Joe Lauzon: 3 units to win 1.33 units

Matt Brown(+130) vs Brian Foster: 1 unit to win 1.3 units

I think Bj Penn has value. I think Rampage has value.

That's all for now.


- The Wise Guy

UFC 121

I have 2 bets for this event:

Brock Lesnar(-140) vs Cain Velazquez: 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann(+180) vs Jake Shields: 1 unit to win 1.8 units

Overall: 2.4 units to win 2.8 units


Kampmann was at +215 a few days ago and I am kicking myself for not getting on that soon enough. I didn't think it would drop like that. I think he has the TD defense to stay out of trouble, and will light Shields up on the feet.


A lot is made of Cains cardio, but honestly Brock's is very good too. Definitely above average for the heavyweight division. And it is a lot more difficult to grapple with somebody who is much bigger AND also very good. In other words, out-wrestling Kongo just isn't going to be that tiring for a wrestler with Cain's skills. Cain has much better boxing, but if Carwin couldn't put Lesnar away I doubt cain will be knocking him out. Can Cain outbox Lesnar AND stop his takedowns at the same time? That is the question. I don't think Cain (or anybody else) can survive being under Lesnar for very long, the question is can he keep from ending up there. I don't think he can, not for the whole fight.

Cain has shown the ability to get rocked as well. He is used to enjoying a significant speed and wrestling advantage, and both will be mostly neutralized by Brock. I think Brock gets the TKO via ground and pound in round.

UFC 120

I really only have one bet right now for UFC 120:

Dan Hardy(-160) vs Carlos Condit: 2 units to win 1.25 units


While Dan Hardy never has struck me as an especially dynamic fighter, he is effective, and it is tough to make him look bad or to hurt him.

He has shown effective striking, great submission defense, and solid takedown defense.

Condit is a very solid, well-rounded fighter, and actually is very dynamic. The trouble is he takes risks, gives up position, and really fights aggressively. This makes for good fights, but it doesn't always put him in a great position to win decisions if he can't overwhelm or finish his opponents. I think this fight will play out with Condit being the aggressor, and Hardy responding with great defense, and more effective, damaging striking, and ultimately get him the decision win.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 119 Results

Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: -1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: +1.25 units

Overall: +.25 units


Just like last event I eeked out a positive result. Disappointing, but positive is positive. As Always I was sad to see Crocop lose, especially when Mir was being so passive. I really feel like CC could have taken this fight if he actually FOUGHT. It was like watching the JDS fight all over again. He threw 2 kicks and maybe 10 punches the entire fight.

The Stephens Guillard fight went pretty much like I expected, it was just a little closer than I thought it would be.

Wishing I pulled the trigger on Sherk.




- The Wise Guy

UFC 119

I currently have 2 bets for UFC 119:

Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units

Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units

Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.

I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.



That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFN 22 - results

Rousimar Palhares(-195) vs Nate Marquardt: -.5 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: +1.075 units

So the results ended up pretty much like I expected. I figured one of my two bets would come through, but I really didn't think they both would.

Ended the evening ahead .5075 units.


Cole looked good, and as I suspected his reach advantage proved to be an issue for Pearson.

The main event was very strange. I definitely think Palhares would have made it much more of a close fight had it not been for the bizarre circumstances that occured.

Definitely a coming out party for Charles Oliveira. That kid is a contender for sure. Extremely well rounded and dynamic. His bounce-off-the-cage takedown was amazing, as was the way he took the back to end it. Very good fight.

All in all pretty good fights.


I will have more on the next event soon.





-The Wise Guy