Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS
Result: 5-6 picks, 4-5 bets, -3.63 units
Wasn't a good night, but not devastating. I would have almost pushed if I got just 1 more fight right, which is sort of frustrating.
I am surprised at the Diego outcome, but I am glad I picked right in the Diabate fight. Don't know what this means for Cane-two quick KOs back to back. Not good.
I am glad I passed on the Duffee and Nogueira fights (even though Nog 'won'
Basically a pretty rough card unless you bet a lot of dogs; the underdogs won in 6 of the 11 fights (7 if you disregard little Nog's gift decision)
-The Wise Guy
Monday, May 31, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
UFC 114
Hey all,
I haven't updated in a while on account of being stuck in the middle of the desert in Kuwait, but I wanted to get on here really quick and post my bets for 114
113 was brutal, and I'll update on that later, but I wanted to get this post up before the event tomorrow.
Just the down and dirty, here are my bets (the Rampage bet was made a while ago that's why it is not bet to win 1)
Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS
All in all, 18.65 units to win 9.64 units
I like that finally there is a card that isn't all HUGE favorites. Really only two big favorites that I am betting on (Efrain and Melvin)
I think Cane will probably win, but I think Cyrille is a good deal at those odds. He has good stand up and Cane will likely stand with him. Escudero I don't like the odds, but I can't see him losing. Haven't seen enough of Duffee, and the odds are too steep on Nogueira.
Can't wait to watch the fights!
- The Wise Guy
I haven't updated in a while on account of being stuck in the middle of the desert in Kuwait, but I wanted to get on here really quick and post my bets for 114
113 was brutal, and I'll update on that later, but I wanted to get this post up before the event tomorrow.
Just the down and dirty, here are my bets (the Rampage bet was made a while ago that's why it is not bet to win 1)
Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS
All in all, 18.65 units to win 9.64 units
I like that finally there is a card that isn't all HUGE favorites. Really only two big favorites that I am betting on (Efrain and Melvin)
I think Cane will probably win, but I think Cyrille is a good deal at those odds. He has good stand up and Cane will likely stand with him. Escudero I don't like the odds, but I can't see him losing. Haven't seen enough of Duffee, and the odds are too steep on Nogueira.
Can't wait to watch the fights!
- The Wise Guy
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Quick look - upcoming odds
just a heads up on a couple of fights coming up with deals:
Rich Franklin(-145) vs Chuck Liddell(+115)
Gray Maynard(+105) vs Kenny Florian(-135)
These are great deals on Franklin and Florian. Chucks Popularity will keep this line lower than it should be, but I still think it will get worse than this. Franklin has solid technical striking and liddells chin won't be able to take it.
Maynard Has been acting like a boxer lately, and regardless Florian has shown tremendous takedown defense lately. Definitely a deal for a fighter of his caliber.
-The Wise Guy
Rich Franklin(-145) vs Chuck Liddell(+115)
Gray Maynard(+105) vs Kenny Florian(-135)
These are great deals on Franklin and Florian. Chucks Popularity will keep this line lower than it should be, but I still think it will get worse than this. Franklin has solid technical striking and liddells chin won't be able to take it.
Maynard Has been acting like a boxer lately, and regardless Florian has shown tremendous takedown defense lately. Definitely a deal for a fighter of his caliber.
-The Wise Guy
UFC 113
Internet is working right now, so I can post my UFC 113 bets:
Mauricio Rua(+152) vs Lyoto Machida(-192): PASS
Paul Daley(+205) vs Josh Koscheck(-255): 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Stephens(+160) vs Sam Stout(-195): 3 units to win 1.54 units
Matt Mitrione(+105) vs Kimbo Slice(-105): 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Alan Belcher(-115) vs Patrick Cote(-115): 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Joe Doerkson(+385) vs Tom Lawlor(-485): 4.85 units to win 1 unit
Jonathan Goulet(+350) vs Marcus Davis(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
TJ Grant(+350) vs Johnny Hendricks(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
Tim Hague(-240) vs Joey Beltran(+190): PASS
Mike Guymon(+190) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida(-240); 2.4 units to win 1 unit
John Salter(+135) vs Jason Macdonald(-165): 1.65 units to win 1 unit
TOTAL: 25.6 units to win 10.59 units
The Stout and Mitrione bets were made much earlier. The odds listed are the odds on them at the time the bet was placed. The odds on their opponents are the current odds. The odds have gotten slightly worse on both of them since the bets were made, so I'm glad I jumped on them then.
It is an interesting card because I am choosing all favorites. It is VERY unlikely that the favorites will win EVERY single fight, but individually I can't pick against them in any matchup. So we'll see what happens. because I am choosing a lot of heavy favorites I am more likely to get them right, but I will also lose more if(when) I get any of them wrong.
I think Lyoto will win what I see as a 50/50 matchup. obviously the value is with Rua in that case, but I think Lyoto will win so I'm not going to bet it. Koscheck still has me worried, but if he uses proper strategy it will be a rout, and the odds have come down a lot so I went with him.
I still can't see Stout losing, so get your money in on that one, the line is still a steal. Same with Cote. Although my confidence isn't as high as with Stout, I really feel strongly he will win and he is almost even money.
Lawlor, Hendricks, and Davis are all large favorites, but they should be. I can't see them losing their fights. A loss from any of the three will put a big dent in my earnings for the night, however.
should be a fun night of fights. Can't wait!
- The Wise Guy
Mauricio Rua(+152) vs Lyoto Machida(-192): PASS
Paul Daley(+205) vs Josh Koscheck(-255): 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Stephens(+160) vs Sam Stout(-195): 3 units to win 1.54 units
Matt Mitrione(+105) vs Kimbo Slice(-105): 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Alan Belcher(-115) vs Patrick Cote(-115): 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Joe Doerkson(+385) vs Tom Lawlor(-485): 4.85 units to win 1 unit
Jonathan Goulet(+350) vs Marcus Davis(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
TJ Grant(+350) vs Johnny Hendricks(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
Tim Hague(-240) vs Joey Beltran(+190): PASS
Mike Guymon(+190) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida(-240); 2.4 units to win 1 unit
John Salter(+135) vs Jason Macdonald(-165): 1.65 units to win 1 unit
TOTAL: 25.6 units to win 10.59 units
The Stout and Mitrione bets were made much earlier. The odds listed are the odds on them at the time the bet was placed. The odds on their opponents are the current odds. The odds have gotten slightly worse on both of them since the bets were made, so I'm glad I jumped on them then.
It is an interesting card because I am choosing all favorites. It is VERY unlikely that the favorites will win EVERY single fight, but individually I can't pick against them in any matchup. So we'll see what happens. because I am choosing a lot of heavy favorites I am more likely to get them right, but I will also lose more if(when) I get any of them wrong.
I think Lyoto will win what I see as a 50/50 matchup. obviously the value is with Rua in that case, but I think Lyoto will win so I'm not going to bet it. Koscheck still has me worried, but if he uses proper strategy it will be a rout, and the odds have come down a lot so I went with him.
I still can't see Stout losing, so get your money in on that one, the line is still a steal. Same with Cote. Although my confidence isn't as high as with Stout, I really feel strongly he will win and he is almost even money.
Lawlor, Hendricks, and Davis are all large favorites, but they should be. I can't see them losing their fights. A loss from any of the three will put a big dent in my earnings for the night, however.
should be a fun night of fights. Can't wait!
- The Wise Guy
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