UFC 125 update

More of the lines have been posted for UFC 125, and some are worth taking a look at. So far my plays for this event are:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit
Marcus Davis(+205) vs Jeremy Stephens: 1 unit to win 2.05 units

Total: 2.65 units to win 3.05 units

I think Clay will fight smart and avoid trading, and there is no way Gomi can keep up with his pace for 3 whole rounds. I think he will be able to defend with relative success for the first round, but as long as Guida doesn't get KO'd early he will wear down Gomi and get a UD or late stoppage. This line has actually gotten slightly better, with Guida at -160 right now at Bookmaker.

I don't see any reason why Marcus davis is a 2 to 1 dog against Stephens. Marcus is at least equal in power and speed, and has better, more diverse technical boxing, better wrestling, and better submissions. I think Davis gets the better of the exchanges with more technical combos and by mixing up his hands more.


I actually think Frankie Edgar will win, but not strongly enough to bet it.

I think Leben has value at -165

I think Thiago Silva will win, line is about right though.

I'd love to see Baroni win, but man I just don't know. His cardio is SO bad

I think Antonio McKee will should get a pretty straightforward win. Probably still has value at -225. Volkmann hasn't impressed me thus far.


That's all for now. Can't wait for the fights!


- The Wise Guy

UFC 125

There are a lot of fights on this card with close odds. That's a good thing if you have a strong feeling about any of the fights, because you are getting a good deal. However, it also means the fights are harder to pick.

I may make more bets as the fights get closer but for now I only have one bet:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit

Gomi has decent wrestling/takedown defense, but I don't think he can keep up with Guida's pace for more than a round. I think he will control Gomi and bust him up on the ground for a decision win.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

December Results

Ultimate Finale Results:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: -4 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: -.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: -.5 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: + .7 units

Total: - 4.3 units

Hendricks losing the decision really tanked the event for me. Otherwise I would have been at +1.7.

Luckily now I am back in the United States with decent internet and will be able to follow the events more closely and do more research, so hopefully that will see my results improve, as they have suffered slightly recently.

For UFC 124 I had only one bet:

Thiago Alves(-300) vs John Howard: 3 units to win 1

Result: +1 unit.

I was debating whether I should post the bet because I didn't have a chance to do it before the event, and I don't want anybody thinking I was being dishonest or something. Ultimately I have decided to post it, because this blog is mainly for my personal record keeping anyway, and its not some crazy unrealistic bet like saying after that fact that I had 5 units on Serra to beat GSP or something.

Anyway, the Thiago bet helped offset the losses from the ultimate finale somewhat, but it still wasn't a great month for me.

New years resolution: win more money!

Ultimate Finale

Here are my plays for the Ultimate fighter Finale:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: 4 units to win 2 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: .5 units to win 1.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: .5 units to win 1.085 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: 1 unit to win .7 units

Total at risk: 6 units to win 5.285 units

we'll see what happens.



- The Wise Guy