Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: -1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: +1.25 units
Overall: +.25 units
Just like last event I eeked out a positive result. Disappointing, but positive is positive. As Always I was sad to see Crocop lose, especially when Mir was being so passive. I really feel like CC could have taken this fight if he actually FOUGHT. It was like watching the JDS fight all over again. He threw 2 kicks and maybe 10 punches the entire fight.
The Stephens Guillard fight went pretty much like I expected, it was just a little closer than I thought it would be.
Wishing I pulled the trigger on Sherk.
- The Wise Guy
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
UFC 119
I currently have 2 bets for UFC 119:
Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units
Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units
Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.
I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units
Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units
Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.
I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Thursday, September 16, 2010
UFN 22 - results
Rousimar Palhares(-195) vs Nate Marquardt: -.5 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: +1.075 units
So the results ended up pretty much like I expected. I figured one of my two bets would come through, but I really didn't think they both would.
Ended the evening ahead .5075 units.
Cole looked good, and as I suspected his reach advantage proved to be an issue for Pearson.
The main event was very strange. I definitely think Palhares would have made it much more of a close fight had it not been for the bizarre circumstances that occured.
Definitely a coming out party for Charles Oliveira. That kid is a contender for sure. Extremely well rounded and dynamic. His bounce-off-the-cage takedown was amazing, as was the way he took the back to end it. Very good fight.
All in all pretty good fights.
I will have more on the next event soon.
-The Wise Guy
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: +1.075 units
So the results ended up pretty much like I expected. I figured one of my two bets would come through, but I really didn't think they both would.
Ended the evening ahead .5075 units.
Cole looked good, and as I suspected his reach advantage proved to be an issue for Pearson.
The main event was very strange. I definitely think Palhares would have made it much more of a close fight had it not been for the bizarre circumstances that occured.
Definitely a coming out party for Charles Oliveira. That kid is a contender for sure. Extremely well rounded and dynamic. His bounce-off-the-cage takedown was amazing, as was the way he took the back to end it. Very good fight.
All in all pretty good fights.
I will have more on the next event soon.
-The Wise Guy
Saturday, September 4, 2010
UFN 22 Bets
I have 2 dog bets for Ultimate Fight Night 22:
Rousimar Palhares(+195) vs Nate Marquardt: .5 units to win .95 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: .5 units to win 1.075 units
While Marquardt does have better striking and a better overall game than "paul harris", I do think Rousimar has better wrestling and will end up on top, at least a couple times during the fight. I doubt nate can threaten him from his back, and I feel like he has a legit chance of being submitted.
Ross pearson has shown some solid skills and a great overall game, but I think Cole is the most dangerous opponent he has faced, and had real finishing potential. Miller's strikes can hurt people, and I think Pearson may struggle with a reach disadvantage. Pearson has decent wrestling, but Cole is one of those fighters that is actually dangerous off his back, and can threaten submissions or reversals from any position. I do fear Miller's questionable chin however, even though Pearson doesn't have a lot of KOs to his record. I don't know if I am actually picking Miller to win outright here, but these odds seem way off to me. It is a decent step up in competition for Pearson, and Miller offers a lot of dangerous skill that he hasn't had to face before.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
Rousimar Palhares(+195) vs Nate Marquardt: .5 units to win .95 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: .5 units to win 1.075 units
While Marquardt does have better striking and a better overall game than "paul harris", I do think Rousimar has better wrestling and will end up on top, at least a couple times during the fight. I doubt nate can threaten him from his back, and I feel like he has a legit chance of being submitted.
Ross pearson has shown some solid skills and a great overall game, but I think Cole is the most dangerous opponent he has faced, and had real finishing potential. Miller's strikes can hurt people, and I think Pearson may struggle with a reach disadvantage. Pearson has decent wrestling, but Cole is one of those fighters that is actually dangerous off his back, and can threaten submissions or reversals from any position. I do fear Miller's questionable chin however, even though Pearson doesn't have a lot of KOs to his record. I don't know if I am actually picking Miller to win outright here, but these odds seem way off to me. It is a decent step up in competition for Pearson, and Miller offers a lot of dangerous skill that he hasn't had to face before.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
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