UFC 113

My UFC 113 brief breakdown:

Lyoto Machida(-190) vs Maurico Rua(+150)

This fight is such a toss up. I am picking Lyoto to win simply because I don't think Shogun will be able to do the same thing to him that he did last time. At the current odds though it is hard to justify a bet on The Dragon.

Josh Koscheck(-275) vs Paul Daley(+215)

I am worried that Koscheck will try for even a few seconds to trade with Daley, and that is the only thing thing that makes me unsure. Koscheck has the ability to downright embarrass Daley. Lets justhope he uses it. Even at the current odds the only choice is Koscheck or pass.

Sam Stout(-205) vs Jeremy Stephens(+165)

Easy pick, Sam Stout by UD. If you make one bet for this card, this should be it.

I already have a bet on this fight: Sam Stout(-195) 3 units to win 1.54 units.

Kimbo Slice(-125) vs Matt Mitrione(-105)

While neither of these guys are great, I am picking Mitrione in this simply because I think he is better, and Kimbo performed so badly against Alexander.

I already have a bet on this fight as well: Matt Mitrione(+105) 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Patrick Cote(-105) vs Alan Belcher(-125)

Both of these guys have good standup, but Belcher has a tendency to absorb more shots, and Cote hits hard and has a better chin. He takes this one by KO, and is a steal at the current odds.

Marcus Davis(???) vs Jonathan Goulet(???)

I think the UFC just wanted to remind everybody that Davis can knock people out. I don't think Goulet is better anywhere.

Tj Grant(???) vs Johnny Hendricks(???)

Hendricks should control this fight.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida(???) vs Mike Guymon(???)

I think Yoshida is a more well rounded fighter, so I'm picking him in this matchup.

Nick Catone(???) vs John Salter(???)

I am going to have to research salter more thoroughly before making a pick on this one. Pass for now.



Not sure why there are only 9 fights on this card. I will post the rest of my bets once the lines get released.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 112 - Disaster

Well this card was a total ASS raping. In terms of pure predictions this is the worst card I have ever had, quite literally.

BETS:
Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565): - .18 units
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575) PASS
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335): + 1 unit
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190): -.67 units
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139): -1.39 units
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550): -.25 units
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245): PUSH
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165): -.74 units
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170): -1.7 units
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200): -2.5 units
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305): PASS

PICKS: 4-7
BETS: 1-7-1, -6.42 units

A total disaster by any measurements, this card was especially frustrating to watch.

The ref just stood there while Munoz just hung on to an ankle like Mark Coleman and got pounded on, and then stopped it when Grove was in the same position.

I'm not even sure why the Taylor/Gunderson fight got cancelled, but I'm glad because I probably would have gotten it wrong.

Even Hughes looked like he may lose for a while.

And Anderson was pissing me off. If you are so damn good that you can just clown people then finish the damn fight! I gained a lot of respect for Maia though.

Anyway I did so badly on this card from start to finish it wasn't even enjoyable to watch. Pretty shitty overall.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 112 picks and bets

These are my official Picks for UFC 112: (Note they are NOT necessarily my bets. Bets are below.)

Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565)
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575)
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335)
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190)
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139)
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550)
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245)
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165)
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170)
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200)
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305)



BETS (once again these represent actual bets):

Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565): .18 units to win 1 unit
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575) PASS
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335): 4.35 units to win 1 unit
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190): .67 units to win 1 unit
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139: 1.39 units to win 1 unit
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550): .25 units to win 1 unit
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245): .51 units to win 1 unit
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165): .74 units to win 1 unit
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170): 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200): 2.5 units to win 1 unit
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305): PASS

Total: Risking 12.29 units to win 9 units



- The Wise Guy

UFC 112 thoughts

There are 4 fights on this card with significant underdogs (better than +350).
These fights and their current odds are:

BJ Penn(-700) vs Frankie Edgar(+500)
Matt Hughes(-455) vs Renzo Gracie(+355)
Anderson Silva(-700) vs Demian Maia(+500)
Phil Davis(-470) vs Alexander Gustafsson(+370)

Now I have accepted a BJ Penn victory as a foregone conclusion, so ignore that fight for now. But I have been thinking about the other three fights. With my current betting method, to bet on all the favorites would require risking 16.25 units to win just 3. If I lose even one of these bets I would be down at the least 2.55 units, and as much as 5. A break-even card would be a blessing at that point. If I lose more than one... well, the card is a loser for sure. And potentially a BIG loser.

So what's the alternative? With the "bet to win 1" system I could bet on the dogs in all 3 fights for less than a single unit. .75 to be exact. That means that even if I lose all three (the most likely scenario) I am only down .75 units and winning only one other fight puts me ahead .25 units. Of course one of the dogs could win too, covering the bets on all three and then some.

I haven't made my bets yet for this card, so let me know what you guys think.




-The Wise Guy