Strikeforce Miami

There are a couple of good fights on this card, but I don't see any bets that I like.

Hieron is my pick to win over Riggs, but he is too big of a favorite at -350.
Diaz is also my pick to win, but I am not confident enough to put anything on it.

I suspect Melvin will win over Lawler, but he is so onne-dimensional I am too leery to put a bet on him. It is one of those "60% of the time he wins everytime" situations. If lawler plays his game Melvin will win 95 of 100 fights at least. If lawler fights smart, he would be the favorite. It is impossible to tell how that will pan out, so no bet. Official pick is Manhoef though.

I would love to put a small bet on Coenen, because Cyborg is just not a good fighter and I don't like to see her keep winning. She is very sloppy and wins soley by massively overpowering her opponents. Marloes is a more natural 145 than most of Cyborg's past opponents, and at almost a 5 to 1 dog I am tempted to put a partial unit on her, but I fear she will just get overpowered like all the other past opponents. If she fights fearlessly she has a chance.
So, no bet but I hope Marloes wins. Official pick is Cyborg though.

No bet in the walker fight either. The line dropped a lot since it opened with Walker as a -500 favorite. Now you have to think they brought it Nagy as somebody that they thought Walker could beat, but walker most likely sucks pretty hard so you never know how this one will go. You have two years of MMA experience against like 6 months. If you have done grappling training for even a few months and rolled with complete newbies you know how much of a difference the time can make. Way too unpredictable, and a big lack of info for either fighter, so no bet. Official pick, Nagy? Total guess though.



No bets, but should be some exciting fights. Tune in!



-The Wise Guy

RESULTS

So far for all the picks I have listed on this blog, I am 12-6 on my picks. That's about a 67% success rate. Over the course of those 18 picks, I am up 6.45 units.

This means each time I place a bet I earn an average of .35 units (including losses).

If you started with a 50 unit bankroll, you would be up almost 13% so far. And it has only been about 6 months!

Forrest Griffin vs Little Nog

It appears that the UFC is setting up Forrest Griffin vs Little Nog. If this fight happens, I can't wait to see the odds! Little Nog's boxing is phenomenal, and I think it will be much more than Forrest can handle. Nog should be a solid favorite, but with Forrest's wild popularity he may very well open as the favorite. If this fight gets confirmed, watch out for this line when it opens!

ARB bet and lines to watch.

Arbitrage Opportunity

If you went with my bet on Marquardt @ -275, you now have an opportunity to place an arbitrage bet on Sonnen. Because Sonnen's underdog odds at +300 now exceed our initial bet of -275, if you place a bet of the appropriate amount you can make a guaranteed profit.

The guaranteed profit will be only a fraction of a unit, but you will make money no matter who wins the fight. I recommend you take advantage of this opportunity if:

1. Your unit size is large. If your units like 100 dollars or more, a fraction of a unit will still be a decent outcome. If your unit size is small like 5 bucks, then a fraction of a unit may not be enticing enough to you to attempt.
2. You are not totally convinced in your pick. If you are very sure that your original pick is solid (Marquardt in this case) you may want to stick with the chance of making a larger profit even though its not guaranteed. If you are in the least bit unsure about your pick, go ahead and take the guaranteed money. Remember that even tiny positive results add up huge over the long run.

I will say that in this case I will probably not arb out on Marquardt, since I think his chances of winning are more like 85 or 90%, and the return will be over 1 unit. As opposed to a 100% chance of getting like .1 units. Your call.



Lines to Watch

I will also be watching the lines on Frank Trigg and Gabriel Gonzaga. Trigg is currently at +102. I see this fight as basically 50/50, with maybe a slight edge to Trigg. So if he gets to +115 or so I will probably put a unit on him.

I have pretty much decided to place one unit on Gonzaga against JDS, but I am waiting because his line seems to slowly be getting better. He started at about +215 and is now +222. I will wait til closer to fight time and hope his line gets even better.

I am also watching the Nogueira line closely. It has been dropping and he is currently at -124. If he gets significantly closer to even I will probably put a unit on him as well.

I am just watching these lines for now. I will post any bet I make.




- The Wise Guy

Early Action

Here is some early action on a couple of upcoming UFC events:

Anthony Johnson (-280) vs John Howard: 3 units to win 1.07 units

Frank Mir (-147) vs Shane Carwin: 3 units to win 2.04 units


GET ON IT!!!




- The Wise Guy

UFN results and UFC 109

well we lost a unit on the UFC fight night. The Lentz fight was a push after a point was deducted, and silva lost to leben. I have ot hand it to Leben he executed an intelligent game plan. and controlled the fight on the ground. I figured he would get drawn into a brawl as he normally does. If that were the case he would have had a good chance of losing.

So not great results, but no big deal. We'll get back to our winning ways with UFC 109.

As a reminder, here our my bets so far for UFC 109:

Randy Couture (-385) vs Mark Coleman: 6 units to win 1.56 units

Nate Marquardt (-275) vs Chael Sonnen 3 units to win 1.09 units

I have heard a lot of people talking about the Couture fight, saying the Coleman has value as an underdog. At the odds I got my bet in, I think Couture is the right play. I do think this will appear to be a close fight though, but I think if it happened 20 times, every one would be a close fight with Couture winning. The only ways coleman could win would be a KO, or control for 3 rounds for a decision. the odds of a KO are there but are less than what it would take to make couture a bad bet.

The only other way coleman to win would be 3 roudn decision. simply put he just doesn't have the striking or the gas tank to win 2 rounds against couture. I think its very possible, if not likely, that the hammer may take the first round with a take down or two, but I just cannot envision him being able to damage couture too badly from top, or being able to continue executing his game effectively for more than 1.5 rounds. After that I think Couture will be able to make coleman look really bad.

I have run this fight over and over again in my head, and other than a flash KO I can't see it going any other way. But I guess we'll find out!



- The Wise Guy

WEC results

We only had action on Urijah Faber for the WEC event, but he mopped up his opponent and got us up .78 units.

So far this month we are up about 2.41 units. Lets see if we can keep up the positive results through UFC fight night tonight! We only have to have one of our dog bets come in to be positive for this event as well!


See you after tonight.





- The Wise Guy

WEC - and UFN update

I have one bet for you for the WEC event happening this sunday.

Urijah Faber (-385) vs Raphael Assuncao: 3 units to win .78 units

Now this line has been steadily moving down, so you may want to wait until tomorrow to see if it goes down any more. I may not be able to access the internet before the fight so I am putting the bet in now at the current odds.

UFN update: The lines on both of the bets we have for the UFN moved against us, so it's good that we got them in when we did. It also shows that we aren't the only ones who put money on the dogs in those fights.




-The Wise Guy

Fight Night action

I have a double dog bet for you for the UFC Fight Night coming up in a couple of days on Jan 11th.

The action:

Nick Lentz (+190) vs Thiago Tavares: 1 unit to win 1.9 units

Jay Silva (+140) vs Chris Leben: 1 unit to win 1.4 units

Now it is unlikely that both of these fighters will win, but the good thing about underdogs is you don't have to have all your bets come in to still make money. Only one of these guys has to come through to pick up either .4 or .9 units, and I think it is probable that one of them will pull it out.



-The Wise guy

UFC 108 results

So UFC 108 went decently well. We went 3-1 in picks, and ended the night up 1.85 units. May not seem like much, but if you can consistently have positive results, however small, you can very quickly build your bankroll.

There are a lot of good events coming up, and I'll let you know what action I have on them.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 110 early action

The lines for UFC 110 are open and there is a good line on Joe Stevenson vs George longgreeklastname.

We're taking Joe Daddy @ -280, 4 units to win 1.43 units

Get on this one now, the line will probably get worse as the fight approaches.



-The Wise guy