UFN 21 - BOOYAH

Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): +1 unit
Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): -2.6 units

Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): +2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): +1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .+1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): +1 unit

Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555): PASS

Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): +1 unit

Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): +1 unit

Charlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS

Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASS

Total: +5.43 units

8-3 on my picks, 7-1 on my bets.

The difference between my picks and my bets illustrates why I implemented the "pass" option. Correctly choosing which fights to pass on will make a huge difference in the long term. I am probably going to say I can pass on no more than 3 on an 11-fight card, and 2 on cards that have 10 fights or less.

This time I think picked the right fights to pass on. I went 1-2 on the fights I passed. Altogether AWESOME results! I'm obviously very pleased.


Pearson: great footwork and head movement, and FAST
Siver: Showed some decent grappling and good chin. Not a bad showing just came up short.
Less clinch-work in this fight than I would have expected.

Whatever the opposite of a bobblehead doll is, that's what Quarry is. He never moves his head. I knew he was over-valued here and I paid for it. I still thought he would win, but I should have known better than to take him at those odds.

In the fights that aired, nothing else really deviated from how I thought it would go. I'll try to check out the ones I missed later.

I didn't get to submit my UFC Fantasy game picks in time, so I don't have any results for that.


-The Wise guy

UFN 21

So I have been talking a lot about switching my actual bets to the method I have been using for the experiment, and I finally decided to do it. So all of the picks listed below represent actual bets.

I don't actually expect to do too well on my picks for this card, but I didn't want to come in on a card that I knew I had a good chance of doing really well on. If I do decently on a card like this with several hard to call fights, it will be a good sign. Honestly I had a lot of trouble picking a few of these fights, so a break even night here would be good IMO.


Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): 3.15 units to win 1 unit

Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): 2.6 units to win 1 unit

Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): 6 units to win 2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): 1.69 units to win 1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .55 units to win 1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): 1.43 units to win 1 unit

Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555) PASS

Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): 2.95 units to win 1 unit

Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): 2.1 units to win 1 unit

Charlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS

Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASS

Risking 20.47 units to win 9.03 units

The Nelson bet is disproportionally large, since I had already made that bet a while ago. It is also slightly below the current odds of around -325. Since I had extra units on Nelson I gave myself 3 passes for this card. I really think Okami is going to win, but those odds are so high I would have to bet on Linhares if I was going to touch that fight.

Let's see what happens!


-The Wise guy

Experiment detailed results

here are some more specific results on the two different betting methods I have been using for my experiment.

"Bet 1 unit" Method:

For the 3 events I have been doing the experiment, I have (notionally) risked 7, 9, and 8 units respectively for a total of 24 units.

The cumulative results for these three events is +5.22 units. This is a return of 21.75%


"Bet to win 1 unit" Method:


For the 3 events I have been doing the experiment, I have (notionally) risked 10.82, 22.29, and 25.7 units respectively for a total of 58.81 units.

The cumulative results for these three events is +12.83 units. This is a return of 21.82%



So in actuality, the results are VERY close. More to follow.


-The Wise guy

Well, Shane carwin continued his one-round destruction, and I continued my horrible record of bets on close fights, and lost 3 units on Mir. As I feared I bet too much. overall I ended the night -1.14 units.

As fas as the experiment, I have been getting some really positive results, and I am planning on switching to this mode of betting in the near future.


GSP(-750) vs Dan Hardy(+550)
Frank Mir(-152) vs Shane Carwin(+122)
Jon Fitch(-360) vs Ben Saunders(+290)
Jim Miller(-405) vs Mark Bocek(+305)
Nate Diaz(-285) vs Rory Markham(+255)
Ricardo Almeida(-165) vs Matt Brown(+135)
Kurt pelligrino(-215) vs Fabricio Camoes(+175)
Rodney Wallace(-142) vs Jared Hamman(+112): PASS
Rousimar Palhares(-240) vs Thomsz Drwal(+190)
Matthew Riddle(-225) vs Greg Soto(+185): PASS

Results with "bet to win 1 unit" strategy: +5.48 units

Results for "bet 1 unit" strategy: +1.853 units


This results are slightly misleading, because there is not the same amount being bet in both cases (25.7 vs 8) . So really the results are 21.3% and 23.2% return respectively. So despite the disparity in 'units', the "bet 1 unit" strategy had a better rate of return for this event. So assuming you had a fixed amount to bet for this card, and had to choose a method, the "bet 1 unit" strategy would have returned more in this case.

I need to calculate the results as a percentage of units wagered for the past 2 events as well, to see how the methods really square off against each other. I'll try to do that over the next few days.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 111 Picks - updated

Right now my bets are:

Frank Mir (-147) vs Shane Carwin: 3 units to win 2.04 units
Rousimar Palhares(-215) vs Thomasz Drwal: 4 units to win 1.86 units

Here are my picks for the experiment, followed by a brief breakdown of each fight. I will be calculating the results with both the "bet 1 unit" and "bet to win 1 unit
strategies.

GSP(-750) vs Dan Hardy(+550)
Frank Mir(-152) vs Shane Carwin(+122)
Ben Saunders(+290) vs Jon Fitch(-360)
Jim Miller(-405) vs Mark Bocek(+305)
Nate Diaz(-285) vs Rory Markham(+255)
Ricardo Almeida(-165) vs Matt Brown(+135)
Kurt pelligrino(-215) vs Fabricio Camoes(+175)
Rodney Wallace(-142) vs Jared Hamman(+112): PASS
Rousimar Palhares(-240) vs Thomsz Drwal(+190)
Matthew Riddle(-225) vs Greg Soto(+185): PASS

George st Pierre vs Dan Hardy
No mystery here. Absent some huge KO punch GSP will be decimating Hardy.

Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin
In my opinion Mir is better in every area except punching power and probably wrestling. He is faster, has better technical striking, better jiu jitsu, and better experience against higher competition. Of course Carwin CAN win. With his crazy Dim Mak power he can always win, he has proved that. But that is really the only way he can win. Since Mir has more ways to win, I have to pick him here.

Ben Saunders vs Jake Ellenberger
Ellenberger had a good showing against Condit, but ultimately lost a decision. The thing is, Condit's grappling style is sort of risky, so he will risk position to go for subs, so the whole fight was a big scramble. Saunders on the other hand, is good at punishing people for trying to take him down, and he is competent on the ground if it ends up there. I have to pick saunders in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an impressive showing from ellenberger. In the end though I feel Saunders has better finishing skills.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
I have though about this fight a lot, and while unlike many people I do think alves' has a better chance to win this fight than he did last time, the syle of neither fighter has really changed. Fitch is still going to take him down and control him. I do not expect him to get the finish this time though. Initially, I thought alves would come in as an underdog, and would be worth a small bet if the odds were right. I was shocked to see Alves open as a favorite. I'm still not sure exactly how much Alves has improved, but bottom line is Fitch shouldn't be an underdog against anybody at 170 except GSP. So I think he will probably win, and I think he is worth a bet. I really need to find a waY to long onto bookmaker!!



Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek
Bocek is an exceptional grappler, but Miller's wrestling will make the difference in this one. he will be able to keep it on the feet and is the much better striker. His brown belt in BJJ will help him stay out of trouble if it does hit the mat. He is a large favorite for a reason. He is around -400 and I still fell he has some value there.

Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham
Don't know too much about Markham, but I think nate should be able to win this one. It is a little step down from his previous gauntlet of pretty high level opponents, so I think they are trying to let him get a win here.


Ricardo Almeida vs Matt Brown
This is one really hard to pick for me, as Matt brown has looked like a destroyer lately. It is also almeida's first fight at 170, so it is hard to see how that will go. In the end I think Big Dog's grappling acumen will be too much for Brown though, who has shown some submission vunerability in the past. As long as Almeida can get the takedown and avoid getting busted up I think he will win this. I think Brown's over-aggressive style will play into this, and he will get taken down as he rushes forward.

Kurt pelligrino vs Fabricio Camoes
Pellegrino has been turning into a mini-fitch lately. He has been winning with a lot of wrestling control, and not that much offensive submission attacks, despite his black belt. I think that is how he is going to win this fight too. The odds are still pretty close on this fight still, and warrant a bet on him.


Rodney Wallace vs Jared Hamman
Don't know enough about either fighter. Will pass unless I can find a bunch of info on these guys.


Rousimar Palhares vs Thomsz Drwal
The Tree Stump vs The Gorilla. An epic battle to be sure. Both fighters definitely resemble their monickers, too. Drwal has some aggressive, effective standup, but is underwhelming on the ground and has shown a propensity to gas. Palhares on the other hand, is relentless in his takedowns, has excellent cardio, and crushing submission skills. He avoided the punches of dan henderson and even managed to get him down a few times, so I know he can take Drwal down. He is a large favorite that still has value. I have 4 units on Palhares.

Matthew Riddle vs Greg Soto
Don't know anything about Soto. Will probably pass on this one too unless I can dig up some more info.

- The Wise Guy

UFC on Versus Results

Because of internet limitations I didn't actually get to place my real bets, which pissed me off. As mentioned in the last post I was gonna bet to win 1 unit on Kongo, and put .5 on Gonzaga, so I would have been up .5 units. Too bad.

As far as my experiment picks:

Jon Jones vs Brandon Vera: +.41 units
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Junior Dos Santos: -1 unit
Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello: +.28 units
James Irvin vs Allesio Sakara: -1 unit
Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty: +.27 units
Elliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko: -1 unit
Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins: PASS
John Howard vs Daniel Roberts: PASS
Brendan Schuab vs Chase Gormley: +.33 units
Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino: +.18 units
Jason Brilz vs Eric Schafer: +.64 units

Which left me -.89 units for the experiment.

It should also be noted that I only chose Gonzaga because I thought he was undervalued. I didn't actually think he would win, and on the UFC fantasy game I picked JDS and got 8/10 fights correct. Still only got 128 out of 16405 though. Never can get that top 20. So elusive.

UFC on Versus

Here are my 'bets' for my experiment. All bets are for one notional unit. I am in Kuwait right now so I am having trouble accessing bookmaker because they block all gambling sites. But for the sake of the experiment all "bets" will calculated with whatever the odds are the night before the fights.

(in the event I can't find a proxy workaround before then, could somebody post the odds in the comments?)

Anyway, here are the bets:

Jon Jones vs Brandon Vera: 1 unit to win ?
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Junior Dos Santos: 1 unit to win ?
Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello: 1 unit to win ?
James Irvin vs Allesio Sakara: 1 unit to win ?
Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty: 1 unit to win ?
Elliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko: 1 unit to win ?
Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins: PASS
John Howard vs Daniel Roberts: PASS
Brendan Schuab vs Chase Gormley: 1 unit to win ?
Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino: 1 unit to win ?
Jason Brilz vs Eric Schafer: 1 unit to win ?

I may change which fights are my "pass" fights if the odds are crazy, so I still chose a winner.

So far I have no actual bets on this card, but if I can get access to bookmaker before the event, I am going to bet enough to win 1 unit on Pierce or Kongo (whoever has better odds) and then bet .5 units on Gonzaga.



-The Wise Guy

Meaningless statistics and tightening your game

I try to look at my betting habits and patterns with as much objectivity as possible, and in doing so I have come to believe that I am indeed a (potential) advantage player, but there are several bad habits/leaks in my game that are preventing real success.

One all-too-common leak is lack of discipline. Betting too much, rushing into decisions too quickly, betting on fighters because I am a fan, etc. This aspect is easiest to tighten up by formulating (and following) self-imposed guidelines. Over the long run as you become more disciplined you will be able to stray from your rules when you know it is the right play. But when starting, or if discipline is a problem for you, stick to a more regimented system.


I am going to impose some bet-size limitations for myself in the near future, once I determine what they should be. One of the biggest mess-ups I have in my picks is the 4 unit play on Hazelett. I don't necessarily think Dustin was a bad play there, but 4 units was way too much and it cost me. A limitation of 2 units for anything under 200 would have ameliorated that a great deal.

My bet limits are likely going to be something like this:

+infinity to +100: 1 units max
+100 to -150: 1 units max
-150 to -200: 2 units max
-200 to -300: 3 units max
-300 to -425: 4-5 units max
-425 to -???: NO BET

This isn't exactly the system I will be using per se, as I am still working out what the actual cut-off points and bet sizes will be. I may go back and see what my results would have been up to this point if I had been following this sort of system. That will take a little work though.

An even easier way to adjust your bet sixes based on odds is to always bet to win a fixed amount, like 1 unit or 1% of bankroll. That way the bet size is controlled automatically by the lines. This is probably the system I am going to implement until I get better at determining appropriate bet sizes for individual fights.

Here are some interesting statistics of my results so far (this sample size is too small to be of any real use, but it is interesting nonetheless):

RESULTS FOR EACH ODDS RANGE:

-300 to -400: 3-0
-250 to -300: 2-2
-200 to -250: 2-0
-150 to -200: 3-1
even to -150: 1-2
+150 to even: 0-3
+??? to +150: 3-0

To me this is a very interesting data set. It really shows that I have a few 'sweet spots'. I have yet to pick a small underdog correctly, and my record for ALL close lines is abysmal. +150 to -150 is my worst range, and accounts for the majority of my losses. Because of this I will think long and hard before betting on close lines in the future, and will keep the bet sizes small when I do.

When all is said and done, I am -.95 units with underdog bets. -4.95 if you count even odds as an underdog. That is very telling. I am not that great at the underdog bets. I need to be careful here.

In the future my underdog bets will likely be much smaller (perhaps even fractional units) and anchored with bets on favorites. From here on out the name of the game is winning at all costs.
After looking at these results I am regretting the 3 units on Mir at -145. I should have made that 1 unit.

On average I am doing much better with larger favorites and will stick more to them in the future. I actually do much better with my picks for significant underdogs than I do for the closer lines.



-The Wise Guy

WEC

I am stuck in another country so I didn't get to watch the WEC event, but I have seen the results. I was contemplating bets on the both the dogs in the two main fights and am kicking myself for not putting something down. The issue is I am simply not as familiar with WEC fighters as I am with UFC/strikeforce so I wasn't quite as comfortable with my instincts.

With the WEC we really are consistently seeing fights between top 10(or even top5) guys in those divisions, which is a treat. If the results are any indication, the fights were exciting and unpredictable. I'm sorry I missed them.

Between WEC, UFC, strikeforce, and the Japanese orgs, MMA on Versus and CBS; now is a good time to be an MMA fan!

-The Wise Guy

Strikeforce

Strikeforce has quite a few intriguing matchups in the coming months. Among them:


Gilbert Melendez vs Shinya Aoki

While I like watching Aoki fight, I have never understood why he is continually ranked so highly in the top ten. I think he would have trouble with, and lose to, any of the strong wrestlers with good submission defense. Certainly BJ Penn, Florian, Sean Sherk, and the like would beat him easily in my opinion. I also feel he would lose to the likes of Frankie Edgar, Tyson Griffin, Miller, Diego Sanchez, etc. I feel that Melendez falls into this category, and I think he will win. Lets see where the line opens.


Gegard Mousasi vs King Mo Lawal

I have mentioned this fight before, and now it is officially confirmed. My analysis remains unchanged. I see Gegard taking this fight by submission.



Alistair Overeem vs Brett Rogers

Interesting fight here. I have to give the edge to Overeem he is just a much more technical striker. Overeem has to have an edge in what is sure to be a standup fight. The real line I want to see on this fight is the odds that Overeem passes his drug tests. Did I say that?


Andrei Arlovski vs Junior Silva

Arlovski is finally coming back to MMA after a prolonged absence. In Arlovski's last couple of fights a glass chin has sabotaged what would otherwise be one of the most dangerous fighters in the world. He is on of the fastest, most well rounded heavyweights competing today, and his fight with Fedor, among others, shows that he would be an easy top 5 HW if his chin didn't fail him. Even in his recent losses he never really got over-matched, just knocked out.

While he is better technically than silva in pretty much every area, his fragile chin and lengthy lay-off make this a much more difficult fight to handicap. As of right now Arlovski is my pick to win, but I would probably need pretty good odds to bet him here.



Who doesn't love free MMA?




-The Wise Guy