UFC 111 Picks - updated

Right now my bets are:

Frank Mir (-147) vs Shane Carwin: 3 units to win 2.04 units
Rousimar Palhares(-215) vs Thomasz Drwal: 4 units to win 1.86 units

Here are my picks for the experiment, followed by a brief breakdown of each fight. I will be calculating the results with both the "bet 1 unit" and "bet to win 1 unit
strategies.

GSP(-750) vs Dan Hardy(+550)
Frank Mir(-152) vs Shane Carwin(+122)
Ben Saunders(+290) vs Jon Fitch(-360)
Jim Miller(-405) vs Mark Bocek(+305)
Nate Diaz(-285) vs Rory Markham(+255)
Ricardo Almeida(-165) vs Matt Brown(+135)
Kurt pelligrino(-215) vs Fabricio Camoes(+175)
Rodney Wallace(-142) vs Jared Hamman(+112): PASS
Rousimar Palhares(-240) vs Thomsz Drwal(+190)
Matthew Riddle(-225) vs Greg Soto(+185): PASS

George st Pierre vs Dan Hardy
No mystery here. Absent some huge KO punch GSP will be decimating Hardy.

Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin
In my opinion Mir is better in every area except punching power and probably wrestling. He is faster, has better technical striking, better jiu jitsu, and better experience against higher competition. Of course Carwin CAN win. With his crazy Dim Mak power he can always win, he has proved that. But that is really the only way he can win. Since Mir has more ways to win, I have to pick him here.

Ben Saunders vs Jake Ellenberger
Ellenberger had a good showing against Condit, but ultimately lost a decision. The thing is, Condit's grappling style is sort of risky, so he will risk position to go for subs, so the whole fight was a big scramble. Saunders on the other hand, is good at punishing people for trying to take him down, and he is competent on the ground if it ends up there. I have to pick saunders in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an impressive showing from ellenberger. In the end though I feel Saunders has better finishing skills.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
I have though about this fight a lot, and while unlike many people I do think alves' has a better chance to win this fight than he did last time, the syle of neither fighter has really changed. Fitch is still going to take him down and control him. I do not expect him to get the finish this time though. Initially, I thought alves would come in as an underdog, and would be worth a small bet if the odds were right. I was shocked to see Alves open as a favorite. I'm still not sure exactly how much Alves has improved, but bottom line is Fitch shouldn't be an underdog against anybody at 170 except GSP. So I think he will probably win, and I think he is worth a bet. I really need to find a waY to long onto bookmaker!!



Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek
Bocek is an exceptional grappler, but Miller's wrestling will make the difference in this one. he will be able to keep it on the feet and is the much better striker. His brown belt in BJJ will help him stay out of trouble if it does hit the mat. He is a large favorite for a reason. He is around -400 and I still fell he has some value there.

Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham
Don't know too much about Markham, but I think nate should be able to win this one. It is a little step down from his previous gauntlet of pretty high level opponents, so I think they are trying to let him get a win here.


Ricardo Almeida vs Matt Brown
This is one really hard to pick for me, as Matt brown has looked like a destroyer lately. It is also almeida's first fight at 170, so it is hard to see how that will go. In the end I think Big Dog's grappling acumen will be too much for Brown though, who has shown some submission vunerability in the past. As long as Almeida can get the takedown and avoid getting busted up I think he will win this. I think Brown's over-aggressive style will play into this, and he will get taken down as he rushes forward.

Kurt pelligrino vs Fabricio Camoes
Pellegrino has been turning into a mini-fitch lately. He has been winning with a lot of wrestling control, and not that much offensive submission attacks, despite his black belt. I think that is how he is going to win this fight too. The odds are still pretty close on this fight still, and warrant a bet on him.


Rodney Wallace vs Jared Hamman
Don't know enough about either fighter. Will pass unless I can find a bunch of info on these guys.


Rousimar Palhares vs Thomsz Drwal
The Tree Stump vs The Gorilla. An epic battle to be sure. Both fighters definitely resemble their monickers, too. Drwal has some aggressive, effective standup, but is underwhelming on the ground and has shown a propensity to gas. Palhares on the other hand, is relentless in his takedowns, has excellent cardio, and crushing submission skills. He avoided the punches of dan henderson and even managed to get him down a few times, so I know he can take Drwal down. He is a large favorite that still has value. I have 4 units on Palhares.

Matthew Riddle vs Greg Soto
Don't know anything about Soto. Will probably pass on this one too unless I can dig up some more info.

- The Wise Guy