UFC 135 Bones Jones vs Rampage Jackson

I had a nice long write-up all done and then my computer crashed and lost it all.

So now I have to leave, and I will just write down the bets

Koscheck(-415) vs Matt Hughes: 5 units to win 1.21 units

Aaron Riley(+275) vs Tony Fergusson: .5 units to win 1.38 units

Takanori Gomi (+200) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win 1 unit

That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.


-The Wise Guy

UFC Fight Night Quick picks

my bets:

My anchor bet is Alan Belcher. even at -265 I think he has value. I don't see how MacDonald can win. Belcher will starch him in the standup, had decent takedown defense, and is himself a brown belt in BJJ. It will be a long night for macdonald.

Alan Belcher(-265) vs Jason MacDonald: 3 units to win 1.13

Also, I have 1 unit on Brookins over Koch.

I think Shields will win the main event, but the chance for Ellengerger to win a LNP decision is there, so I stayed away. Still, at only around -200 I think shields has value.



-The wise guy

Strikeforce Heavyweight Tournament - Semifinals

The only fight i have action on for this one is Silva over Cormier. Cormier is wildly undersized against bigfoot who is a literal giant (afflicted with acromegaly, or giantism). He is also a BJJ Black belt and a competent striker. I have the striking about even, and big foot can probably threaten from his back, or even sweep. It is hard to sweep a great wrestler like Cormier, but being so much bigger will help a lot. It will also cause Cormier to work a lot harder to control Silva and maybe tire out. This is a big jump up in competition for Cormier, and at only -160 I think its a decent play on Bigfoot here.

Antonio Silva(-160) vs Daniel Cormier: 2 units to win 1.25 units

I also have prop bets that either Silva(+175) or Barnett(+150) will ultimately win the tournament. 1 unit on each.

As far as Barnett's current fight with Sergei, I can't recommend a bet on Barnett. Not at the current odds. He should win, but there is just not enough value there.

Same with Souza. No reason to take him at -425, even though he will most likely win.

I see the Gracie/king mo fight as a 50/50, so I wouldn't begrudge a small play on gracie at his current underdog odds of +150. Personally though I am sitting it out.

That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 134 results

Seems I was wrong to have any doubts on Silva's destruction of Okami. Although I am not sure what Okami's gameplan was. He seemed to choke, and lost without having attempted a SINGLE legit takedown. Very strange.

I was also wrong on the Forrest fight. It happens.

I was super stoked to see Nogueira win though. And he looked good too. I remarked to a friend right before the fight that Nog always had solid boxing, but his head movement just sucked. And his chin can no longer withstand the take-one-to-give-one strategy. Well, the he comes out ducking and weaving like Anderson Silva, using great head movement. That made the difference in this fight. So happy to see him win.

Obviously we were on the right side of the line with Pearson. At +260 he takes it to a split decision. So while he didn't actually win, he was definitely undervalued and it was a good bet.

We did win our over bet for that one, as both guys were tough, and as I predicted lasted the whole 3 rounds.

We lost on the Thiago under though, and i can't help but think he could have been more aggressive and finished him. oh well.

Rousimar came through as expected, but it seems like he can't go a single fight without some kind of controversy. He started celebrating before the ref had actually stopped the fight. Strange. Still, he dominated Miller for 3 rounds and brought us a W.

We ended up slightly down for the night, but not huge. Til next time.

- The Wise Guy