UFC 132 Betting Picks and Analysis

I have action on 4 fights this time, which is more than usual.

First the, anchor bet of the evening:

Dennis Siver(-130) vs Matt Wiman: 2 units to win 1.54 units

I think this will be similar to Siver's fight with Sotiropolous. I think Wiman probably has better wrestling, so he will probably have better success getting the fight down occasionally, but I don't think he has the top control to keep Siver there. His Standup is good, but I think Siver's is better.

Next up are my more speculative bets:

Chris Leben(+145) vs Wanderlei Silva: .5 units to win .7 units

Both of these guys have a similar style, but I think Leben's chin wins out over Wanderlei's at this stage of the game.

Tito Ortiz(+400) vs Ryan Bader: .25 units to win 1 unit

Honestly, I think Tito loses this fight. Sadly I think he is pretty much done. Which is unfortunate, because I have grown to like him. That being said, he has never been dominated, and even in his string of losses over the past several years, he has shown that he is no pushover; still top level, just not quite good enough. +400 is too good for a fighter like tito, in a fight he will be motivated to win, against an opponent who may be rattled or fight scared in his return fight after suffering his first real loss in dominating fashion. It's a small speculative bet, nothing more.

Brad Tavares(+195) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win .976 units

No in depth analysis here; I just think Tavares is being undervalued. He hits hard enough to do what Leben did to Simpson, and He will no doubt be working his takedown defense for this fight. I think he's a live dog here.

Overall for UFC 132: Risking 3.25 units to win 4.216 units

Should be an entertaining night of fights. Here's to continuing our streak of positive events!


-The Wise Guy

RESULTS

Wow, The Barry/ Kongo fight was crazy. I was mere seconds away from cashing in on that one too, when WHAM! Unreal. At least I know I was on the right side of the line with that fight. Both fights actually, with Matt Brown coming through for us in his fight.

As I suspected, both fighters were undervalued, and they almost both won. At least one did, and kept the night positive for us.

In the end, we finished the night +.53 units. Not much, but every positive event just grows our bankroll. On to the next one!

- The Wise Guy

UFC on versus

Its only a few hours before the fights, but I have some last minute action:

Pat Barry(+195) vs Cheick Kongo: .5 units to win .975
Matt Brown(+205) vs John Howard: .5 units to win 1.025

I think both of these fighters are being undervalued in their fights, and only one of them needs to win for the night to be positive.

Pat Barry's flaw has been his one-dimensional skill set. That skill set though, his standup, is very good. And up against somebody who is likely to stand with him, his chances are decent.

Matt Brown has should himself to be a dangerous and relatively well-rounded, and is a live dog. That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.

- The Wise Guy

UFC 131 Results

We went 1-1 on our bets and ended the night +1.17 units. I am happy with that for sure. Any positive event is a solid one.

The Main event went mostly how I predicted, except it went the distance, which was very shocking to me. Both fighters were beign VERY cautious, and that is the main reason. JDS still put on a boxing clinic, and even threw in some takedowns in the third round. Easily won all three rounds with superior technique.

In the Florian fight, it seems like we were on the right side of the line, even though Florian won handily. Nunes was never out of the fight, and even won the first round. His cardio failed him, but otherwise he put up a fight. I am glad to see Florian get the W though, and it seems a title shot is next up for him, and he'll have his work cut out for him.

I'm glad I didn't put anything on Maia or Edwards, but at least they were exciting fights, as was the whole card for the most part. The judging needs serious work, as there were many fights scored 30-27 when the losing fighter OBVIOUSLY won one round. Nunes/Florian was one example.

Over all a good night of fights. Can't wait for the next one!



- The Wise Guy

UFC 131

First of all, as you know Clay Guida came through for us last weekend BOOYAH! Of Course he did.

+3.8 Units: BOOK IT.

Now on to UFC 131,

In the main event we have Junior Dos Santos vs Shane Carwin. I have never been so sure a fight would not go the distance. Both are huge dudes with huge power. The only areas where carwin has an advantage in my mind is wrestling. Probably punching power too, but JDS certainly has enough power to knock out carwin, he just might not have the Dim Mak death touch KO power that Carwin seems to have. JDS better technical striking, more diverse striking( Has Carwin EVER thrown a kick?), way better cardio, and his Jiu jitsu is going to be fine. We haven't gotten to see his takedown defense tested yet, but I imagine he has been training that very hard for the past few weeks. The way I see it, unless Carwin finishes this in the first round, Dos Santos is going to win. I think JDS will be ready for a first round barrage, and will outwork Carwin with speed, footwork, technical strikes, and will pepper him with shots from the outside while circling to avoid the take down. Expect copious uppercuts to thwart the takedown attempts, as we saw in his fight against Roy Nelson. By the second round I think Carwin will have slowed significantly, maybe not as bad as in the Brock fight, but it will still be noticeable) and at that point JDS's technique advantage will become even more apparent. It is very likely that Carwin is planning to take it a little slower in the first round to make sure there isn't a repeat of the Lesnar fight. This will make it even MORE likely that JDS's technique will shine through, as I think they only way for him to win is a gong-n-dash style barrage attack where he forces JDS to brawl .

Carwin HAS to get the knockout to win, JDS doesn't. I don't see Carwin having the gas to win a 3-round top control decision. so he either finishes it early, or JDS wins. JDS ALSO has the ability to finish it early however. I think this weighs the fight in favor of JDS.

JDS(-180) vs Shane Carwin: 3 units to win 1.67 units

My other bet for the card is a small dog bet on Nunes over Florian. I think Florian will win, but for being such a fast, successful, aggressive, fighter, I think he is being undervalued. Especially when considering this is Florian's first fight at featherweight. Nunes showed the ability to stop Mike Brown's takedowns, so if he can do the same to Florian I think he stands a solid chance in a standup war; more than the bookies are giving him anyway. I am a huge Florian fan and really hope he wins, but I am not going to pass up value when I see it. This way I can't lose! either Florian wins, and I'm happy, or he loses and at least I get an extra unit to soften the pain.

Diego Nunes(+240)vs Kenny Florian: .5 units to win 1.2 units


I'm rooting for Maia in his fight against Munoz, but for the life of me I just can't decide how the fight is going to go. It depends on a lot of things we just won't know until fight time. How good has Maia's standup gotten, will he be able to take it to the ground at all, will Munoz go for any takedowns of his own, can Maia pin him against the cage, etc. Should be an interesting fight. Close odds, so worth a bet if you think you have a clear vision of how this fight will go.

I like Eves Edwards over Stout. As a slight dog Edwards has value there. Other than that, I don't see any other lines worth jumping on. I do see a lot of exciting fights! Should be a good card!

-The Wise Guy

Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale

CLAY GUIDA! He is one of my favorite fighters, and I can't wait to see him in action once again tonight. He doesn't get any easy fights, and tonight is no exception, seeing him face off against the last WEC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis.

Shockingly to me, Pettis is coming in at about a -240 favorite against Guida. Yes his record is better than Guida's, but he hasn't been facing the same level of competition either. If his record had included fights with Gomi, Florian, Diaz, Danzig, Griffin, etc, He would most likely have a couple losses as well.

And yes he is more 'well-rounded', but that just means all his skills are at basically equal levels; it doesn't mean that level is high enough.

If nothing else, +200 on somebody like Guida, against a guy in his first UFC fight is something you can't pass up even if you think Pettis will win.

And I actually got through on bookmaker's foreign site, so I can actually palce this bet too! Fuck you , The Man!

Clay Guida(+190) vs Anthony Pettis: 2 units to win 3.8 units

Most of the other fights on the cards have clear favorites, so while it should be easy to pick winners, there aren't any deals on the lines either. The only close lines are Credeur/Herman, and Nijem/Ferguson. I can't pick a winner in the Herman fight, but I think Najim wins the Ultimate fighter. We haven't really got to see enough of Fergusons takedown defense to get a good idea of how this fight will play out.


- The Wise Guy