UFC 125 update

More of the lines have been posted for UFC 125, and some are worth taking a look at. So far my plays for this event are:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit
Marcus Davis(+205) vs Jeremy Stephens: 1 unit to win 2.05 units

Total: 2.65 units to win 3.05 units

I think Clay will fight smart and avoid trading, and there is no way Gomi can keep up with his pace for 3 whole rounds. I think he will be able to defend with relative success for the first round, but as long as Guida doesn't get KO'd early he will wear down Gomi and get a UD or late stoppage. This line has actually gotten slightly better, with Guida at -160 right now at Bookmaker.

I don't see any reason why Marcus davis is a 2 to 1 dog against Stephens. Marcus is at least equal in power and speed, and has better, more diverse technical boxing, better wrestling, and better submissions. I think Davis gets the better of the exchanges with more technical combos and by mixing up his hands more.


I actually think Frankie Edgar will win, but not strongly enough to bet it.

I think Leben has value at -165

I think Thiago Silva will win, line is about right though.

I'd love to see Baroni win, but man I just don't know. His cardio is SO bad

I think Antonio McKee will should get a pretty straightforward win. Probably still has value at -225. Volkmann hasn't impressed me thus far.


That's all for now. Can't wait for the fights!


- The Wise Guy

UFC 125

There are a lot of fights on this card with close odds. That's a good thing if you have a strong feeling about any of the fights, because you are getting a good deal. However, it also means the fights are harder to pick.

I may make more bets as the fights get closer but for now I only have one bet:

Clay Guida(-165) vs Takanori Gomi: 1.65 units to win 1 unit

Gomi has decent wrestling/takedown defense, but I don't think he can keep up with Guida's pace for more than a round. I think he will control Gomi and bust him up on the ground for a decision win.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

December Results

Ultimate Finale Results:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: -4 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: -.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: -.5 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: + .7 units

Total: - 4.3 units

Hendricks losing the decision really tanked the event for me. Otherwise I would have been at +1.7.

Luckily now I am back in the United States with decent internet and will be able to follow the events more closely and do more research, so hopefully that will see my results improve, as they have suffered slightly recently.

For UFC 124 I had only one bet:

Thiago Alves(-300) vs John Howard: 3 units to win 1

Result: +1 unit.

I was debating whether I should post the bet because I didn't have a chance to do it before the event, and I don't want anybody thinking I was being dishonest or something. Ultimately I have decided to post it, because this blog is mainly for my personal record keeping anyway, and its not some crazy unrealistic bet like saying after that fact that I had 5 units on Serra to beat GSP or something.

Anyway, the Thiago bet helped offset the losses from the ultimate finale somewhat, but it still wasn't a great month for me.

New years resolution: win more money!

Ultimate Finale

Here are my plays for the Ultimate fighter Finale:

Johnny Hendricks (-200) vs Rick Story: 4 units to win 2 units
Kendall Grove (+300) vs Demian Maia: .5 units to win 1.5 units
Michael Johnson (+217) vs Jonathan Brookins: .5 units to win 1.085 units
Cody Mckenzie (-145) vs Aaron Wilkinson: 1 unit to win .7 units

Total at risk: 6 units to win 5.285 units

we'll see what happens.



- The Wise Guy

RESULTS

George Sotiropolous(-225) vs Joe Lauzon: +1.33 units
Matt Brown(+130) vs Brian Foster: -1.3 units

So I went 1-1 on bets for a grand total of +.03 units, so it was basically a push.

I was correct in my assessment that both BJ Penn and Rampage had value, although I did think Machida should have gotten the decision in that fight.

I really wish I had put something on Penn. I don't have a lot of time right now as I am finishing up here overseas and getting ready to come home, and if I had more time and faster internet I would have put something on him for sure, and that would have given me a better outcome. Anyway, it is what it is. Its better than a losing event.

Starting in mid-December I will be able to devote more time to MMA, so I should have more consistent posts AND better results. Can't wait!


-The Wise Guy

UFC Bets

Just wanted to quickly post my UFC bets for the next event. Its going to be short and sweet because my middle-eastern internet is being slow right now.

George Longgreeklastname(-225) vs Joe Lauzon: 3 units to win 1.33 units

Matt Brown(+130) vs Brian Foster: 1 unit to win 1.3 units

I think Bj Penn has value. I think Rampage has value.

That's all for now.


- The Wise Guy

UFC 121

I have 2 bets for this event:

Brock Lesnar(-140) vs Cain Velazquez: 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann(+180) vs Jake Shields: 1 unit to win 1.8 units

Overall: 2.4 units to win 2.8 units


Kampmann was at +215 a few days ago and I am kicking myself for not getting on that soon enough. I didn't think it would drop like that. I think he has the TD defense to stay out of trouble, and will light Shields up on the feet.


A lot is made of Cains cardio, but honestly Brock's is very good too. Definitely above average for the heavyweight division. And it is a lot more difficult to grapple with somebody who is much bigger AND also very good. In other words, out-wrestling Kongo just isn't going to be that tiring for a wrestler with Cain's skills. Cain has much better boxing, but if Carwin couldn't put Lesnar away I doubt cain will be knocking him out. Can Cain outbox Lesnar AND stop his takedowns at the same time? That is the question. I don't think Cain (or anybody else) can survive being under Lesnar for very long, the question is can he keep from ending up there. I don't think he can, not for the whole fight.

Cain has shown the ability to get rocked as well. He is used to enjoying a significant speed and wrestling advantage, and both will be mostly neutralized by Brock. I think Brock gets the TKO via ground and pound in round.

UFC 120

I really only have one bet right now for UFC 120:

Dan Hardy(-160) vs Carlos Condit: 2 units to win 1.25 units


While Dan Hardy never has struck me as an especially dynamic fighter, he is effective, and it is tough to make him look bad or to hurt him.

He has shown effective striking, great submission defense, and solid takedown defense.

Condit is a very solid, well-rounded fighter, and actually is very dynamic. The trouble is he takes risks, gives up position, and really fights aggressively. This makes for good fights, but it doesn't always put him in a great position to win decisions if he can't overwhelm or finish his opponents. I think this fight will play out with Condit being the aggressor, and Hardy responding with great defense, and more effective, damaging striking, and ultimately get him the decision win.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 119 Results

Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: -1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: +1.25 units

Overall: +.25 units


Just like last event I eeked out a positive result. Disappointing, but positive is positive. As Always I was sad to see Crocop lose, especially when Mir was being so passive. I really feel like CC could have taken this fight if he actually FOUGHT. It was like watching the JDS fight all over again. He threw 2 kicks and maybe 10 punches the entire fight.

The Stephens Guillard fight went pretty much like I expected, it was just a little closer than I thought it would be.

Wishing I pulled the trigger on Sherk.




- The Wise Guy

UFC 119

I currently have 2 bets for UFC 119:

Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units

Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units

Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.

I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.



That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFN 22 - results

Rousimar Palhares(-195) vs Nate Marquardt: -.5 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: +1.075 units

So the results ended up pretty much like I expected. I figured one of my two bets would come through, but I really didn't think they both would.

Ended the evening ahead .5075 units.


Cole looked good, and as I suspected his reach advantage proved to be an issue for Pearson.

The main event was very strange. I definitely think Palhares would have made it much more of a close fight had it not been for the bizarre circumstances that occured.

Definitely a coming out party for Charles Oliveira. That kid is a contender for sure. Extremely well rounded and dynamic. His bounce-off-the-cage takedown was amazing, as was the way he took the back to end it. Very good fight.

All in all pretty good fights.


I will have more on the next event soon.





-The Wise Guy

UFN 22 Bets

I have 2 dog bets for Ultimate Fight Night 22:

Rousimar Palhares(+195) vs Nate Marquardt: .5 units to win .95 units
Cole Miller(+215) vs Ross Pearson: .5 units to win 1.075 units

While Marquardt does have better striking and a better overall game than "paul harris", I do think Rousimar has better wrestling and will end up on top, at least a couple times during the fight. I doubt nate can threaten him from his back, and I feel like he has a legit chance of being submitted.

Ross pearson has shown some solid skills and a great overall game, but I think Cole is the most dangerous opponent he has faced, and had real finishing potential. Miller's strikes can hurt people, and I think Pearson may struggle with a reach disadvantage. Pearson has decent wrestling, but Cole is one of those fighters that is actually dangerous off his back, and can threaten submissions or reversals from any position. I do fear Miller's questionable chin however, even though Pearson doesn't have a lot of KOs to his record. I don't know if I am actually picking Miller to win outright here, but these odds seem way off to me. It is a decent step up in competition for Pearson, and Miller offers a lot of dangerous skill that he hasn't had to face before.


That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

Bellator 26 and UFC 118 - Results

The only play I had for Bellator 26 came through for me:

Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly: +1 unit


The fight went just about like I thought it would. Ward scored early with a judo-throw takedown, and controlled the fight with her grappling, winning a unanimous decision.


UFC 118 wasn't as successful for me, as I went 0-2.

Kenny Florian(-130) vs Gray Maynard: -2 units
Marcus Davis(+165) vs Nate Diaz: -.5 units

I was just totally on the wrong side of the line with both od these fights. Kenny didn't seem as dedicated to immediately getting back to his feet as he did in the Guida fight, and when both fighters were on the feet it was very tentative.

Davis just had no answer for Diaz's reach advantage and awkward boxing style. He did hit Nate with a fair number of hard shots early in the fight, but his chin held up.

Definitely a disappointing event, but the losses weren't too bad, and were mitigated by my win from the Bellator event.

I'm still closing out August up 2.3 units, so still a solid month.


There are plenty of MMA events in September, so hopefully there will be some good odds on some of the fights. Stay tuned.



-The Wise Guy

Bellator 26

I only have one bet so far on Bellator 26

Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly(-125): 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I think Daly is the slight favorite here simply due to her being the slightly larger of the two fighters having competed at higher weights, and her undefeated record. While Ward will most likely be smaller, she is strong and has enjoyed a significant strength advantage over her previous opponents, so I think in terms of pure physicality these two will be pretty evenly matched.

on top of that Ward is a multiple-time grappling champion in no-gi and gi. Her striking is technically sound, as is her overall technique in general. On the other hand Daly has appeared more sloppy in some of her bouts.

I think Ward is a more well-rounded, more technical fighter, and has benefitted from higher quality opposition in the past. I think she is more technical on the feet, and her grappling should allow her to control the fight and threaten with submissions, even if she ends up on the bottom.




-The Wise Guy

Strikeforce and UFC 118 and 119

I don't have any bets for Strikeforce tonight. If I was going to make a bet, it would be on Jacare @ -200 over Tim Kennedy. Noons is going to beat Gurgel, but the odds aren't great.

For UFC 118 I already have 2 units on Florian, and I just added another bet:

Marcus Davis (+165) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win .825 units

Though I think Nate will probably get the takedown at some point, he is usually content to trade with people. Davis has solid wrestling and much better striking. He is bigger stronger, faster, and has solid TD defense. He has enough submission savvy that getting taken down isn't like an automatic win for diaz either. I think he will be able to pull out a decision win here.

I also made another bet, for UFC 119, because I think the line might get worse:

Mirko Cro Cop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units

Crocop has excellent takedown defense, and Mir has never had amazing takedowns. Add to that the fact that Mirko should have a solid advantage in the striking, and it is a little interesting that he is the underdog in this fight. If somehow the odds get even better closer to fight time I will probably add another unit to this play, if he gets better than +200.

That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 117 Results

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: +3.15 units
Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: +1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: -1 unit

2-1 on bets, + 3.89 units

It is good to see that when I go back to my normal methods I can consistently get winning events again.

Not a bad night of bets at all. I wish I had bet more on Clay and Fitch, especially at those awesome odds. I was convinced they would win, but the odds were so off I thought maybe I was missing something and started to doubt myself a little. In the end, both fights went almost exactly as I thought (I thought Clay would get a UD, not a submission).

Hazelett didn't pull out the win, so I am glad I only put one unit there. Havn't seen the fight yet, but apparently it was TKO in the 2nd. Not sure if that was standing or from GNP though. That's two in a row for him, hopefully he bounces back.

Main event was crazy.

Matt Hughes had an awesome performance. I actually expected him to lose that fight, and he goes out there and completely dominates.

Decent event overall. Any positive event leaves me in a good mood.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 117 betting picks

As I wrote in an earlier post, I already have a bet on Jon fitch:

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units

As of right now Fitch is at about -120. I would still make this bet at these odds.

My other action for this card is:

Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: 2 units to win 1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: 1 unit to win .87 units

Total: 6 units to win 5.76units

While Dos Anjos has a chance to get a submission for sure, Guida has shown incredible submission defense. The only times he has gotten submitted is when he has been hurt bad with punches. Dos Anjos is much better on the feet to be sure, but I don't think he can stop the takedowns and deal with Guida's pace for the distance. Guida by UD. I am a big fan of Guida's as well, so I would love to see him win here.

I am also a big Hazelett fan, and that is part of the reason I am betting on him here. I do think he will win though. I think he has a wrestling disadvantage but he is very dangerous with his BJJ and can certainly finish this fight from his back.

Other than these fights there isn't much on this card to bet. Saunders isn't a bad bet against hallman. He's a little high though, but I would bet him under -200. Hendricks will win, but its not worth it for those odds. When are they going to give him a top 10 opponent?

Should be a solid card overall. Can't wait!

-The Wise Guy

UFC 116 - FLAWLESS VICTORY

SWEEP

Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: +2.5 units
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: +.825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: +.675 units
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: +1 unit

Total: 4-0 on bets, +5 units

Matt Brown put the fear in me with that solid d'arce attempt. Gave me the willies. Ultimately Lytle won by submission as I predicted.

The leben fight went exactly as I predicted: Sexyama would look good in the first round, but would tire quickly with Leben's toughness, physicality, and hard shots. The only thing I didn't call was him winning by sub, which is impressive against a fighter of Akiyama's caliber.

I got lucky that the Grove fight went my way. I would have said he won, but I really thought the judges would give Reljic the 2nd round. Its good too see that they are learning. Other than getting one takedown, he did NOTHING while on top, and ate a lot of shots.

I was wrong in my analysis of the main event. I thought whoever won would look easy. I figured Carwin would blast brock with his early storm, or Brock would get top position and pound him out. What I DIDN'T think would happen is that Brock would weather everything Carwin had, absorbing countless blows with his water-melon sized head, and come back in the second round to win by Sub. Although as soon as the first round was over I knew for sure Brock would win. Carwin had nothing left, and had noticeably slowed even by the end of the first round. Brock showed an ability to take some big punches, some versatility, and most importantly, heart.


NOTES:

• Where can I get me some of those big foam UFC hulk-hands? Hilarious.
• So glad to see Bonnar get the win. I was happy for him. and the post-fight psycho-stare pose was awesome.
• I forget who it was, but after one of the fights, somebody almost suffocted trying to put their shirt on. Sponsor-shirt by SUB
• I don't think there was a boring fight on this card. Great card overall.
• Sad to see Pellegrino lose, but man George is becoming a BEAST!

- The Wise Guy

UFC 116 UPDATE

Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: 5 units to win 2.5 units

How Could Mike brown win this fight?

Submission? Doubtful. I don't even know if Brown is purple belt level yet, and Lytle is a legit BB, Never submitted in 50 fights.

Top control for 3 rounds? Again, doubtful. Lytle's grappling is excellent. He has avoided being controlled by much better wrestlers and grapplers than Brown.

Knockout? Once again, not likely. Lytle is a 17-1 professional boxer. He has fast hands, solid power, and a good chin. His only 2 TKO stoppages in his 50 fights have come due to cuts. He has never been stopped from anything else. Considering the opposition he has faced, I doubt Brown will be the one to do it, despite his solid striking.

Outstriking for 3 rounds? This is the only possible way for brown to win IMO. Possible, not likely. Technical striking advantage goes to lytle. Cardio advantage also probably goes to Lytle.

To top it all off, Lytle already beat Brown once, three years ago. Guillotine in the 2nd. My money (literally) is on Lytle, especially at these gift odds.

I am betting enough to basically cover the rest of my bets. I should have waited a little longer on lesnar as his odds keep going down.


Also, I don't want to put any more units at risk with this card, but at +160 Pellegrino is an awesome bet.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 116 Lesnar vs Carwin - Betting Picks

Right now I have the following bets:

Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: .5 units to win .825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: .5 units to win .675 units

I am going to cover these with a bet to win 1 unit on Lesnar, but I am waiting because his odds are slowly getting better. Right now they are at about -157.

UPDATE: I don't know how often I will be able to check odds over the next few days, so I went ahead and locked in Lesnar at -155.

Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: 1.55 units to win 1 unit

Total for UFC 116: Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units

LESNAR vs CARWIN: What it comes down to is Carwin is just not very well rounded. He has inhuman punching power, and has been able to use it effectively over and over again. But that is ALL he has. His wrestling is overrated (he tends to bull-rush in and stumble around) and I believe most success in controlling his mostly less-than-stellar opposition is due to his size and strength. Even if I am wrong, his wrestling on paper, and in the ring, doesn't hold a candle to Lesnar's. I have seen nothing to suggest that he will be able to stop Lesnar's take downs.

Carwin's striking, while almost impossibly powerful, is stiff slow, and not technical. I actually believe lesnar has shown better technical striking for the most part. Carwin also takes a lot of hits, and was getting outstruck by Gonzaga and Neil Wain (who) before landing his knockout punches.

basically Carwin HAS to get his patented "knockout within 2 minutes" to win this fight. As long as Lesnar just shoots a double right out of the gate, and drives halfway across the cage a al vintage Koscheck, I think the fight is his. I don't think Carwin's poor defense will let him survive being under lesnar for very long.

Of course carwin as proven to be very good at doing just what he needs to to win this fight, and Lesnar is coming off a long layoff with a hospital stay and surgery, so there are some intangibles.
But the odds are very good, and I will only be risking about 1.5 - 1.7 units, unless the odds change drastically.

LEBEN vs SEXYAMA: The Sexy one I believe will have his hands full with this fight. While I think he has probably better technical striking and is, overall, a more well rounded, technically skilled fighter, I think Leben poses some unique problems for him.

For starters, Akiyama is undersized for the middleweight division. We saw this be somewhat of a problem for him against belcher. Leben also has shown excellent takedown defense, especially lately in his fight against Simpson, so Akiyama will have a difficult time taking it to the ground. Leben will have to watch out for the judo throws though.

I think this fight will play out on the feet, with a fair amount of clinch work. Akiyama will get theh better of the striking exchanges early, but without much damage to leben. after the first round I think the clinch work with the bigger leben, along with the occasional Leben-bomb that gets through, will start to wear on him. I think the 2 and third rounds will go to leben, and he will take a UD.

GROVE vs RELJIC

No real in-depth thoughts behind this one. I just think Kendall has enough to get him to the ground and submit him.

None of these fights are super one sided, but the odds are cheap and I have structured it so I can push in multiple scenarios. As long as I win any 2 I will push or come very close (depending on the Lesnar odds). if lesnar wins I will at least push.

Should be some interesting fights!!



-The Wise Guy

Early Odds - Fitch and Florian

There are a couple of lines on some upcoming events that I think are just too good to pass up.

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves

Simply put, there is just no way Fitch should anything other than a solid favorite here. He is probably THE most consistent performer in all of mma. Other than the loss to GSP, he has continued to do his thing, which is dominating everybody else.

In the meantime, Thiago has been doing his thing, and seems to have gotten better at what he was already good at. But, just like Art Jimmerson didn't lose to Royce because he wasn't a good enough boxer, Alves didn't lose to Fitch because his striking wasn't good enough. Despite his improvement he is just not going to be able to control the fight. I don't think Fitch will get anywhere near finishing him this time, but Fitch's game should be able to stop him from mounting much of an offense. When Alves isn't getting taken down or getting back up, he is going to be defending takedowns from the clinch. And I think he will be able to defend it well at first, but I don't think he can handle Fitch's "grind".

When all is said and done, there is no reason to think Fitch won't be able to grind out a decision here. And with that being said , +105 is a STEAL.

MY BET: Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units


Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard

Gray Maynard performed very well since his loss on the Ultimate Fighter, and remains undefeated. Recently he seems like he may have come down with a moderate case of 'boxitis', which caused him to take a split decision over Nate Diaz when he should have been able to solidly control that fight. Now he may have been worried about going to the ground with Diaz, and purposefully kept the fight on the feet. Well, he has just as much to worry about in the ground game of Kenny florian, and much more to worry about in his standup. And while other people seem to be able to only strike OR defend the takedown, Kenny seems to be able to successfully defend the takedown while still mounting a successful offense.

When all is said and done, Maynard has a lot more to worry about than Kenny. He is one of the most well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, has burned through top competition with ease, and is a deal at these odds.

MY BET: Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard: 2 units to win 1.48 units


I have a feeling both of these lines will get worse, so jump on it.



-The Wise Guy

Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - SWEEP

RESULTS
Hail to the king:

Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: +1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: +1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: + .775 units

BETS: 3-0, +3.15 units

I said I was gonna bet Jardine if he made it past+150, and he never did. So I never bet it, and I'm glad I didn't. Although I do feel he got screwed. With the point deduction that fight should have been a draw. I don't even think he should have gotten a point taken. People get poked all the time, and RARELY is a point deducted.

I think Leben got a generous stoppage in a technical sense, but I doubt the outcome would have been different had they let it go a few more seconds. I wasn't complaining.

The Siver/Fisher fight went about as I thought it would, and his slight edge played out.

On UFC fantasy I called Court McGee by choke in the 3rd, so the fight went almost exactly as I had anticipated.
I also called Leben by tko in the second, but I didn't get max points because I guessed it would happen in the 3rd minute instead of the 4th. How incredibly gay is that? I call the fight EXACTLY right and lose points because I was off on the finish time by less than 60 seconds. Their scoring system is horrible.



REFLECTIONS

This card provided some much needed units and an equally important morale boost. It is amazing mow much of a confidence booster it can be to have a successful night like this. I am definitely going to continue to do what I have in the beginning and bet few fights, and only those that I really feel I have a good handle on the outcome.

The 'bet almost every fight' strategy proved to be a very expensive experiment. I just wish I had done poorly when I was doing it notionally so I wouldn't have tried it with real bets.

I realized betting a lot of fights is like playing a lot of hands in poker; yeah you CAN win on any hand, but when there is no penalty for passing why not wait for the hands where you KNOW you have a significant advantage?

I am going back to my original strategy, which was decidedly simple: End the night positive. At all costs. Regardless of value, odds, whatever. The only goal is to gain units and NEVER lose them. This meant I bet WAY less fights, and skipped some cards altogether. But you know what? it worked. And it is much better to not make any bets at all than to lose a unit or two on some stupid speculating 'value' bets.



-The Wise Guy

Me and Heath "The Texas Hold-em Crazy Horse" Herring

As I have mentioned before, I am currently deployed to Kuwait.
Sometimes celebrities or bands come through here on USO tours. The latest was to promote the "Circle of Pain" movie, and they brought Heath Herring, Bai Ling, and whoever the hell the other guy in the movie was.

I ran into Heath Herring at the USO poker tournament next door to where they were showing the movie, and got to play some hold-em with him. He's pretty good too, I might add.

I got a picture with him, but the douche that took it must have had some sort of palsy because it came out all blurry. You can still tell its him, and it sort of obscures how much of a semi-pubescent man-child I look like next to him.





- The Wise Guy

Ultimate Finale

BETS:

Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: 2.15 units to win 1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win 1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: .5 units to win .775 units


I am watching the line on Jardine. It keeps getting better. if he gets to +150 or better I will put .5 units on him. maybe 1 unit.

Based on the previous fight I think there is value on Baczynsky at his current odds of +190.
Attonitio isn't bad at -120 either, and I like Bryant as a dog against Noke. I am not betting any of these though, for the simple reason I am trying to limit my exposure for this card. I have been having a terrible run of it lately, and I'd like to see if I can come up positive for once.

- The Wise Guy

UFC 115 results

Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit
Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1 unit

Total: 3-2, -.9 units

Did ok with my picks, but it seems like I can't get a positive event to save my life.

But I have never been so happy to lose a bet. Crocop looked awesome! And not just because he won. He looked like he wanted to be there, like he wanted the win. He fought back from being hurt early, mixed up his attacks, and won by submission!

I'm stoked. I have been a huge Crocop fan for years and lately he had just seemed like he had lost the will to fight. So glad to see him back in classic form.

The Tyson griffin loss is what kept me from having a + event. I knew I didn't like those odds. I haven't seen the fight, so I don't know how close it really was, but Evan Dunham is the real deal.
I will not take him lightly in the future.

Pyle looked good. I was a little hesitant with that bet because I couldn't tell exactly how I thought he would win, I just new he would be able to slightly out-class lennox in several areas. Lennox is much more one-dimensional. Turns out I was right.

Carlos condit performed like I hoped. Maybe lucky with the stoppage, because I don't know how a decision would have gone. He may have barely lost the first 2 rounds. This is why the fight as a whole type scoring is better. In my mind, obviously the domination in the 3rd round more than makes up for getting slightly outpointed for 2 rounds, but taking no damage. But even if he got a 10-8 it may have been a draw. Most of that is due to Condit's go-for-the finish style, which I love. He will sacrifice position and take those risks. It doesn't lend itself well to the 10 point must scoring, but I wish more fighters would fight that way.

The Rich / Chuck fight went exactly like I thought it would.

Thoughts:

• Hat stealers!! haha
• They need to speed up how long it takes to introduce the main event. I ducked out right when Goldie said "its time for our main event", and I had time to shower, shave, and jerk off 3 times to replays of Mirko's fight before the main event started. They seriously take 10-15 minutes, time it.
• Pretty good event overall. No boring fights.
• Wishing I had taken the plunge on Kampmann and Rothwell. Kampmann looked really sharp.

Another event coming up soon! That's all for now.

-The Wise Guy

More UFC 115 action

Some more bets:

Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit

I was hoping The Crow would come in as a favorite, but no dice.

I think Thiago will win, but the odds are getting close to it being a good deal on Kampmann. If he gets past +200 I will probably put half a unit on him.

Franklin came down a little actually, bummer. I should have waited.


that's all for now.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 115 Early Odds

Only a few of the lines for 115 have posted so far, but I wanted to get on these because I think they may change:

Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1

I am a huge Crocop fan, but (even recent fights not withstanding) he has never done great against confident, aggressive strikers who are going to constantly move forward and push the pace. I see him losing a decision.

Same with Chuck. He is great at knocking out people who are trying to take him down. Against people with strict technical striking he has always floundered. Add to that his weak chin of late, and I think Franklin is a fairly safe bet here, and a deal at these odds.

I am watching the line for Danzig/Wiman closely. Right now they are both -115. I can make a case for either of these fighters winning. Right now I am actually leaning towards Wiman, although either guy would be a deal as a decent dog, so watch this line.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 114 Results

Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS

Result: 5-6 picks, 4-5 bets, -3.63 units

Wasn't a good night, but not devastating. I would have almost pushed if I got just 1 more fight right, which is sort of frustrating.

I am surprised at the Diego outcome, but I am glad I picked right in the Diabate fight. Don't know what this means for Cane-two quick KOs back to back. Not good.

I am glad I passed on the Duffee and Nogueira fights (even though Nog 'won'

Basically a pretty rough card unless you bet a lot of dogs; the underdogs won in 6 of the 11 fights (7 if you disregard little Nog's gift decision)

-The Wise Guy

UFC 114

Hey all,

I haven't updated in a while on account of being stuck in the middle of the desert in Kuwait, but I wanted to get on here really quick and post my bets for 114

113 was brutal, and I'll update on that later, but I wanted to get this post up before the event tomorrow.

Just the down and dirty, here are my bets (the Rampage bet was made a while ago that's why it is not bet to win 1)

Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS

All in all, 18.65 units to win 9.64 units

I like that finally there is a card that isn't all HUGE favorites. Really only two big favorites that I am betting on (Efrain and Melvin)

I think Cane will probably win, but I think Cyrille is a good deal at those odds. He has good stand up and Cane will likely stand with him. Escudero I don't like the odds, but I can't see him losing. Haven't seen enough of Duffee, and the odds are too steep on Nogueira.



Can't wait to watch the fights!

- The Wise Guy

Quick look - upcoming odds

just a heads up on a couple of fights coming up with deals:

Rich Franklin(-145) vs Chuck Liddell(+115)
Gray Maynard(+105) vs Kenny Florian(-135)

These are great deals on Franklin and Florian. Chucks Popularity will keep this line lower than it should be, but I still think it will get worse than this. Franklin has solid technical striking and liddells chin won't be able to take it.

Maynard Has been acting like a boxer lately, and regardless Florian has shown tremendous takedown defense lately. Definitely a deal for a fighter of his caliber.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 113

Internet is working right now, so I can post my UFC 113 bets:

Mauricio Rua(+152) vs Lyoto Machida(-192): PASS
Paul Daley(+205) vs Josh Koscheck(-255): 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Stephens(+160) vs Sam Stout(-195): 3 units to win 1.54 units
Matt Mitrione(+105) vs Kimbo Slice(-105): 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Alan Belcher(-115) vs Patrick Cote(-115): 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Joe Doerkson(+385) vs Tom Lawlor(-485): 4.85 units to win 1 unit
Jonathan Goulet(+350) vs Marcus Davis(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
TJ Grant(+350) vs Johnny Hendricks(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
Tim Hague(-240) vs Joey Beltran(+190): PASS
Mike Guymon(+190) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida(-240); 2.4 units to win 1 unit
John Salter(+135) vs Jason Macdonald(-165): 1.65 units to win 1 unit

TOTAL: 25.6 units to win 10.59 units

The Stout and Mitrione bets were made much earlier. The odds listed are the odds on them at the time the bet was placed. The odds on their opponents are the current odds. The odds have gotten slightly worse on both of them since the bets were made, so I'm glad I jumped on them then.

It is an interesting card because I am choosing all favorites. It is VERY unlikely that the favorites will win EVERY single fight, but individually I can't pick against them in any matchup. So we'll see what happens. because I am choosing a lot of heavy favorites I am more likely to get them right, but I will also lose more if(when) I get any of them wrong.

I think Lyoto will win what I see as a 50/50 matchup. obviously the value is with Rua in that case, but I think Lyoto will win so I'm not going to bet it. Koscheck still has me worried, but if he uses proper strategy it will be a rout, and the odds have come down a lot so I went with him.

I still can't see Stout losing, so get your money in on that one, the line is still a steal. Same with Cote. Although my confidence isn't as high as with Stout, I really feel strongly he will win and he is almost even money.

Lawlor, Hendricks, and Davis are all large favorites, but they should be. I can't see them losing their fights. A loss from any of the three will put a big dent in my earnings for the night, however.

should be a fun night of fights. Can't wait!

- The Wise Guy

UFC 113

My UFC 113 brief breakdown:

Lyoto Machida(-190) vs Maurico Rua(+150)

This fight is such a toss up. I am picking Lyoto to win simply because I don't think Shogun will be able to do the same thing to him that he did last time. At the current odds though it is hard to justify a bet on The Dragon.

Josh Koscheck(-275) vs Paul Daley(+215)

I am worried that Koscheck will try for even a few seconds to trade with Daley, and that is the only thing thing that makes me unsure. Koscheck has the ability to downright embarrass Daley. Lets justhope he uses it. Even at the current odds the only choice is Koscheck or pass.

Sam Stout(-205) vs Jeremy Stephens(+165)

Easy pick, Sam Stout by UD. If you make one bet for this card, this should be it.

I already have a bet on this fight: Sam Stout(-195) 3 units to win 1.54 units.

Kimbo Slice(-125) vs Matt Mitrione(-105)

While neither of these guys are great, I am picking Mitrione in this simply because I think he is better, and Kimbo performed so badly against Alexander.

I already have a bet on this fight as well: Matt Mitrione(+105) 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Patrick Cote(-105) vs Alan Belcher(-125)

Both of these guys have good standup, but Belcher has a tendency to absorb more shots, and Cote hits hard and has a better chin. He takes this one by KO, and is a steal at the current odds.

Marcus Davis(???) vs Jonathan Goulet(???)

I think the UFC just wanted to remind everybody that Davis can knock people out. I don't think Goulet is better anywhere.

Tj Grant(???) vs Johnny Hendricks(???)

Hendricks should control this fight.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida(???) vs Mike Guymon(???)

I think Yoshida is a more well rounded fighter, so I'm picking him in this matchup.

Nick Catone(???) vs John Salter(???)

I am going to have to research salter more thoroughly before making a pick on this one. Pass for now.



Not sure why there are only 9 fights on this card. I will post the rest of my bets once the lines get released.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 112 - Disaster

Well this card was a total ASS raping. In terms of pure predictions this is the worst card I have ever had, quite literally.

BETS:
Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565): - .18 units
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575) PASS
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335): + 1 unit
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190): -.67 units
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139): -1.39 units
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550): -.25 units
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245): PUSH
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165): -.74 units
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170): -1.7 units
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200): -2.5 units
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305): PASS

PICKS: 4-7
BETS: 1-7-1, -6.42 units

A total disaster by any measurements, this card was especially frustrating to watch.

The ref just stood there while Munoz just hung on to an ankle like Mark Coleman and got pounded on, and then stopped it when Grove was in the same position.

I'm not even sure why the Taylor/Gunderson fight got cancelled, but I'm glad because I probably would have gotten it wrong.

Even Hughes looked like he may lose for a while.

And Anderson was pissing me off. If you are so damn good that you can just clown people then finish the damn fight! I gained a lot of respect for Maia though.

Anyway I did so badly on this card from start to finish it wasn't even enjoyable to watch. Pretty shitty overall.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 112 picks and bets

These are my official Picks for UFC 112: (Note they are NOT necessarily my bets. Bets are below.)

Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565)
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575)
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335)
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190)
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139)
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550)
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245)
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165)
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170)
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200)
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305)



BETS (once again these represent actual bets):

Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565): .18 units to win 1 unit
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575) PASS
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335): 4.35 units to win 1 unit
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190): .67 units to win 1 unit
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139: 1.39 units to win 1 unit
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550): .25 units to win 1 unit
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245): .51 units to win 1 unit
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165): .74 units to win 1 unit
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170): 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200): 2.5 units to win 1 unit
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305): PASS

Total: Risking 12.29 units to win 9 units



- The Wise Guy

UFC 112 thoughts

There are 4 fights on this card with significant underdogs (better than +350).
These fights and their current odds are:

BJ Penn(-700) vs Frankie Edgar(+500)
Matt Hughes(-455) vs Renzo Gracie(+355)
Anderson Silva(-700) vs Demian Maia(+500)
Phil Davis(-470) vs Alexander Gustafsson(+370)

Now I have accepted a BJ Penn victory as a foregone conclusion, so ignore that fight for now. But I have been thinking about the other three fights. With my current betting method, to bet on all the favorites would require risking 16.25 units to win just 3. If I lose even one of these bets I would be down at the least 2.55 units, and as much as 5. A break-even card would be a blessing at that point. If I lose more than one... well, the card is a loser for sure. And potentially a BIG loser.

So what's the alternative? With the "bet to win 1" system I could bet on the dogs in all 3 fights for less than a single unit. .75 to be exact. That means that even if I lose all three (the most likely scenario) I am only down .75 units and winning only one other fight puts me ahead .25 units. Of course one of the dogs could win too, covering the bets on all three and then some.

I haven't made my bets yet for this card, so let me know what you guys think.




-The Wise Guy

UFN 21 - BOOYAH

Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): +1 unit
Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): -2.6 units

Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): +2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): +1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .+1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): +1 unit

Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555): PASS

Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): +1 unit

Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): +1 unit

Charlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS

Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASS

Total: +5.43 units

8-3 on my picks, 7-1 on my bets.

The difference between my picks and my bets illustrates why I implemented the "pass" option. Correctly choosing which fights to pass on will make a huge difference in the long term. I am probably going to say I can pass on no more than 3 on an 11-fight card, and 2 on cards that have 10 fights or less.

This time I think picked the right fights to pass on. I went 1-2 on the fights I passed. Altogether AWESOME results! I'm obviously very pleased.


Pearson: great footwork and head movement, and FAST
Siver: Showed some decent grappling and good chin. Not a bad showing just came up short.
Less clinch-work in this fight than I would have expected.

Whatever the opposite of a bobblehead doll is, that's what Quarry is. He never moves his head. I knew he was over-valued here and I paid for it. I still thought he would win, but I should have known better than to take him at those odds.

In the fights that aired, nothing else really deviated from how I thought it would go. I'll try to check out the ones I missed later.

I didn't get to submit my UFC Fantasy game picks in time, so I don't have any results for that.


-The Wise guy

UFN 21

So I have been talking a lot about switching my actual bets to the method I have been using for the experiment, and I finally decided to do it. So all of the picks listed below represent actual bets.

I don't actually expect to do too well on my picks for this card, but I didn't want to come in on a card that I knew I had a good chance of doing really well on. If I do decently on a card like this with several hard to call fights, it will be a good sign. Honestly I had a lot of trouble picking a few of these fights, so a break even night here would be good IMO.


Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): 3.15 units to win 1 unit

Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): 2.6 units to win 1 unit

Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): 6 units to win 2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): 1.69 units to win 1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .55 units to win 1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): 1.43 units to win 1 unit

Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555) PASS

Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): 2.95 units to win 1 unit

Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): 2.1 units to win 1 unit

Charlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS

Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASS

Risking 20.47 units to win 9.03 units

The Nelson bet is disproportionally large, since I had already made that bet a while ago. It is also slightly below the current odds of around -325. Since I had extra units on Nelson I gave myself 3 passes for this card. I really think Okami is going to win, but those odds are so high I would have to bet on Linhares if I was going to touch that fight.

Let's see what happens!


-The Wise guy

Experiment detailed results

here are some more specific results on the two different betting methods I have been using for my experiment.

"Bet 1 unit" Method:

For the 3 events I have been doing the experiment, I have (notionally) risked 7, 9, and 8 units respectively for a total of 24 units.

The cumulative results for these three events is +5.22 units. This is a return of 21.75%


"Bet to win 1 unit" Method:


For the 3 events I have been doing the experiment, I have (notionally) risked 10.82, 22.29, and 25.7 units respectively for a total of 58.81 units.

The cumulative results for these three events is +12.83 units. This is a return of 21.82%



So in actuality, the results are VERY close. More to follow.


-The Wise guy

Well, Shane carwin continued his one-round destruction, and I continued my horrible record of bets on close fights, and lost 3 units on Mir. As I feared I bet too much. overall I ended the night -1.14 units.

As fas as the experiment, I have been getting some really positive results, and I am planning on switching to this mode of betting in the near future.


GSP(-750) vs Dan Hardy(+550)
Frank Mir(-152) vs Shane Carwin(+122)
Jon Fitch(-360) vs Ben Saunders(+290)
Jim Miller(-405) vs Mark Bocek(+305)
Nate Diaz(-285) vs Rory Markham(+255)
Ricardo Almeida(-165) vs Matt Brown(+135)
Kurt pelligrino(-215) vs Fabricio Camoes(+175)
Rodney Wallace(-142) vs Jared Hamman(+112): PASS
Rousimar Palhares(-240) vs Thomsz Drwal(+190)
Matthew Riddle(-225) vs Greg Soto(+185): PASS

Results with "bet to win 1 unit" strategy: +5.48 units

Results for "bet 1 unit" strategy: +1.853 units


This results are slightly misleading, because there is not the same amount being bet in both cases (25.7 vs 8) . So really the results are 21.3% and 23.2% return respectively. So despite the disparity in 'units', the "bet 1 unit" strategy had a better rate of return for this event. So assuming you had a fixed amount to bet for this card, and had to choose a method, the "bet 1 unit" strategy would have returned more in this case.

I need to calculate the results as a percentage of units wagered for the past 2 events as well, to see how the methods really square off against each other. I'll try to do that over the next few days.

-The Wise Guy

UFC 111 Picks - updated

Right now my bets are:

Frank Mir (-147) vs Shane Carwin: 3 units to win 2.04 units
Rousimar Palhares(-215) vs Thomasz Drwal: 4 units to win 1.86 units

Here are my picks for the experiment, followed by a brief breakdown of each fight. I will be calculating the results with both the "bet 1 unit" and "bet to win 1 unit
strategies.

GSP(-750) vs Dan Hardy(+550)
Frank Mir(-152) vs Shane Carwin(+122)
Ben Saunders(+290) vs Jon Fitch(-360)
Jim Miller(-405) vs Mark Bocek(+305)
Nate Diaz(-285) vs Rory Markham(+255)
Ricardo Almeida(-165) vs Matt Brown(+135)
Kurt pelligrino(-215) vs Fabricio Camoes(+175)
Rodney Wallace(-142) vs Jared Hamman(+112): PASS
Rousimar Palhares(-240) vs Thomsz Drwal(+190)
Matthew Riddle(-225) vs Greg Soto(+185): PASS

George st Pierre vs Dan Hardy
No mystery here. Absent some huge KO punch GSP will be decimating Hardy.

Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin
In my opinion Mir is better in every area except punching power and probably wrestling. He is faster, has better technical striking, better jiu jitsu, and better experience against higher competition. Of course Carwin CAN win. With his crazy Dim Mak power he can always win, he has proved that. But that is really the only way he can win. Since Mir has more ways to win, I have to pick him here.

Ben Saunders vs Jake Ellenberger
Ellenberger had a good showing against Condit, but ultimately lost a decision. The thing is, Condit's grappling style is sort of risky, so he will risk position to go for subs, so the whole fight was a big scramble. Saunders on the other hand, is good at punishing people for trying to take him down, and he is competent on the ground if it ends up there. I have to pick saunders in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an impressive showing from ellenberger. In the end though I feel Saunders has better finishing skills.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
I have though about this fight a lot, and while unlike many people I do think alves' has a better chance to win this fight than he did last time, the syle of neither fighter has really changed. Fitch is still going to take him down and control him. I do not expect him to get the finish this time though. Initially, I thought alves would come in as an underdog, and would be worth a small bet if the odds were right. I was shocked to see Alves open as a favorite. I'm still not sure exactly how much Alves has improved, but bottom line is Fitch shouldn't be an underdog against anybody at 170 except GSP. So I think he will probably win, and I think he is worth a bet. I really need to find a waY to long onto bookmaker!!



Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek
Bocek is an exceptional grappler, but Miller's wrestling will make the difference in this one. he will be able to keep it on the feet and is the much better striker. His brown belt in BJJ will help him stay out of trouble if it does hit the mat. He is a large favorite for a reason. He is around -400 and I still fell he has some value there.

Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham
Don't know too much about Markham, but I think nate should be able to win this one. It is a little step down from his previous gauntlet of pretty high level opponents, so I think they are trying to let him get a win here.


Ricardo Almeida vs Matt Brown
This is one really hard to pick for me, as Matt brown has looked like a destroyer lately. It is also almeida's first fight at 170, so it is hard to see how that will go. In the end I think Big Dog's grappling acumen will be too much for Brown though, who has shown some submission vunerability in the past. As long as Almeida can get the takedown and avoid getting busted up I think he will win this. I think Brown's over-aggressive style will play into this, and he will get taken down as he rushes forward.

Kurt pelligrino vs Fabricio Camoes
Pellegrino has been turning into a mini-fitch lately. He has been winning with a lot of wrestling control, and not that much offensive submission attacks, despite his black belt. I think that is how he is going to win this fight too. The odds are still pretty close on this fight still, and warrant a bet on him.


Rodney Wallace vs Jared Hamman
Don't know enough about either fighter. Will pass unless I can find a bunch of info on these guys.


Rousimar Palhares vs Thomsz Drwal
The Tree Stump vs The Gorilla. An epic battle to be sure. Both fighters definitely resemble their monickers, too. Drwal has some aggressive, effective standup, but is underwhelming on the ground and has shown a propensity to gas. Palhares on the other hand, is relentless in his takedowns, has excellent cardio, and crushing submission skills. He avoided the punches of dan henderson and even managed to get him down a few times, so I know he can take Drwal down. He is a large favorite that still has value. I have 4 units on Palhares.

Matthew Riddle vs Greg Soto
Don't know anything about Soto. Will probably pass on this one too unless I can dig up some more info.

- The Wise Guy

UFC on Versus Results

Because of internet limitations I didn't actually get to place my real bets, which pissed me off. As mentioned in the last post I was gonna bet to win 1 unit on Kongo, and put .5 on Gonzaga, so I would have been up .5 units. Too bad.

As far as my experiment picks:

Jon Jones vs Brandon Vera: +.41 units
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Junior Dos Santos: -1 unit
Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello: +.28 units
James Irvin vs Allesio Sakara: -1 unit
Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty: +.27 units
Elliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko: -1 unit
Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins: PASS
John Howard vs Daniel Roberts: PASS
Brendan Schuab vs Chase Gormley: +.33 units
Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino: +.18 units
Jason Brilz vs Eric Schafer: +.64 units

Which left me -.89 units for the experiment.

It should also be noted that I only chose Gonzaga because I thought he was undervalued. I didn't actually think he would win, and on the UFC fantasy game I picked JDS and got 8/10 fights correct. Still only got 128 out of 16405 though. Never can get that top 20. So elusive.

UFC on Versus

Here are my 'bets' for my experiment. All bets are for one notional unit. I am in Kuwait right now so I am having trouble accessing bookmaker because they block all gambling sites. But for the sake of the experiment all "bets" will calculated with whatever the odds are the night before the fights.

(in the event I can't find a proxy workaround before then, could somebody post the odds in the comments?)

Anyway, here are the bets:

Jon Jones vs Brandon Vera: 1 unit to win ?
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Junior Dos Santos: 1 unit to win ?
Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello: 1 unit to win ?
James Irvin vs Allesio Sakara: 1 unit to win ?
Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty: 1 unit to win ?
Elliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko: 1 unit to win ?
Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins: PASS
John Howard vs Daniel Roberts: PASS
Brendan Schuab vs Chase Gormley: 1 unit to win ?
Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino: 1 unit to win ?
Jason Brilz vs Eric Schafer: 1 unit to win ?

I may change which fights are my "pass" fights if the odds are crazy, so I still chose a winner.

So far I have no actual bets on this card, but if I can get access to bookmaker before the event, I am going to bet enough to win 1 unit on Pierce or Kongo (whoever has better odds) and then bet .5 units on Gonzaga.



-The Wise Guy

Meaningless statistics and tightening your game

I try to look at my betting habits and patterns with as much objectivity as possible, and in doing so I have come to believe that I am indeed a (potential) advantage player, but there are several bad habits/leaks in my game that are preventing real success.

One all-too-common leak is lack of discipline. Betting too much, rushing into decisions too quickly, betting on fighters because I am a fan, etc. This aspect is easiest to tighten up by formulating (and following) self-imposed guidelines. Over the long run as you become more disciplined you will be able to stray from your rules when you know it is the right play. But when starting, or if discipline is a problem for you, stick to a more regimented system.


I am going to impose some bet-size limitations for myself in the near future, once I determine what they should be. One of the biggest mess-ups I have in my picks is the 4 unit play on Hazelett. I don't necessarily think Dustin was a bad play there, but 4 units was way too much and it cost me. A limitation of 2 units for anything under 200 would have ameliorated that a great deal.

My bet limits are likely going to be something like this:

+infinity to +100: 1 units max
+100 to -150: 1 units max
-150 to -200: 2 units max
-200 to -300: 3 units max
-300 to -425: 4-5 units max
-425 to -???: NO BET

This isn't exactly the system I will be using per se, as I am still working out what the actual cut-off points and bet sizes will be. I may go back and see what my results would have been up to this point if I had been following this sort of system. That will take a little work though.

An even easier way to adjust your bet sixes based on odds is to always bet to win a fixed amount, like 1 unit or 1% of bankroll. That way the bet size is controlled automatically by the lines. This is probably the system I am going to implement until I get better at determining appropriate bet sizes for individual fights.

Here are some interesting statistics of my results so far (this sample size is too small to be of any real use, but it is interesting nonetheless):

RESULTS FOR EACH ODDS RANGE:

-300 to -400: 3-0
-250 to -300: 2-2
-200 to -250: 2-0
-150 to -200: 3-1
even to -150: 1-2
+150 to even: 0-3
+??? to +150: 3-0

To me this is a very interesting data set. It really shows that I have a few 'sweet spots'. I have yet to pick a small underdog correctly, and my record for ALL close lines is abysmal. +150 to -150 is my worst range, and accounts for the majority of my losses. Because of this I will think long and hard before betting on close lines in the future, and will keep the bet sizes small when I do.

When all is said and done, I am -.95 units with underdog bets. -4.95 if you count even odds as an underdog. That is very telling. I am not that great at the underdog bets. I need to be careful here.

In the future my underdog bets will likely be much smaller (perhaps even fractional units) and anchored with bets on favorites. From here on out the name of the game is winning at all costs.
After looking at these results I am regretting the 3 units on Mir at -145. I should have made that 1 unit.

On average I am doing much better with larger favorites and will stick more to them in the future. I actually do much better with my picks for significant underdogs than I do for the closer lines.



-The Wise Guy

WEC

I am stuck in another country so I didn't get to watch the WEC event, but I have seen the results. I was contemplating bets on the both the dogs in the two main fights and am kicking myself for not putting something down. The issue is I am simply not as familiar with WEC fighters as I am with UFC/strikeforce so I wasn't quite as comfortable with my instincts.

With the WEC we really are consistently seeing fights between top 10(or even top5) guys in those divisions, which is a treat. If the results are any indication, the fights were exciting and unpredictable. I'm sorry I missed them.

Between WEC, UFC, strikeforce, and the Japanese orgs, MMA on Versus and CBS; now is a good time to be an MMA fan!

-The Wise Guy

Strikeforce

Strikeforce has quite a few intriguing matchups in the coming months. Among them:


Gilbert Melendez vs Shinya Aoki

While I like watching Aoki fight, I have never understood why he is continually ranked so highly in the top ten. I think he would have trouble with, and lose to, any of the strong wrestlers with good submission defense. Certainly BJ Penn, Florian, Sean Sherk, and the like would beat him easily in my opinion. I also feel he would lose to the likes of Frankie Edgar, Tyson Griffin, Miller, Diego Sanchez, etc. I feel that Melendez falls into this category, and I think he will win. Lets see where the line opens.


Gegard Mousasi vs King Mo Lawal

I have mentioned this fight before, and now it is officially confirmed. My analysis remains unchanged. I see Gegard taking this fight by submission.



Alistair Overeem vs Brett Rogers

Interesting fight here. I have to give the edge to Overeem he is just a much more technical striker. Overeem has to have an edge in what is sure to be a standup fight. The real line I want to see on this fight is the odds that Overeem passes his drug tests. Did I say that?


Andrei Arlovski vs Junior Silva

Arlovski is finally coming back to MMA after a prolonged absence. In Arlovski's last couple of fights a glass chin has sabotaged what would otherwise be one of the most dangerous fighters in the world. He is on of the fastest, most well rounded heavyweights competing today, and his fight with Fedor, among others, shows that he would be an easy top 5 HW if his chin didn't fail him. Even in his recent losses he never really got over-matched, just knocked out.

While he is better technically than silva in pretty much every area, his fragile chin and lengthy lay-off make this a much more difficult fight to handicap. As of right now Arlovski is my pick to win, but I would probably need pretty good odds to bet him here.



Who doesn't love free MMA?




-The Wise Guy

Early Action

Some bets to get on:

Rousimar Palhares(-215) vs Thomasz Drwal: 4 units to win 1.86 units

Matt Mitrione(+105) vs Kimbo Slice: 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Sam Stout(-195) vs Jeremy Stephens: 3 units to win 1.54 units


- The Wise Guy

UFC 110 Results

Well we were definitely on the wrong side of the line on the Stevenson fight, and sadly dropped 4 units.

Interestingly enough, we got every other fight right in our experiment picks, and gained a notional 4.26 units. Definitely a good start to this experiment. I am interested to see what the results are after a few events. If they stay good I will start actually betting in this manner.

We'll make back the units we lost tonight. We got some good bets coming up so stay tuned.




- The Wise Guy

UFC 110

There have been some last minute changes to this card. Once again a fight we had action on had a change-up as Ben Rothwell became ill and was replaced last minute with Anthony Perosh. Also off the card is Elvis Sinosic, who had an arm injury. His fight was just removed from the undercard. So as of right now the only action I have on this card is:

Joe Stevenson(-280) vs George Sotiropoulos: 4 units to win 1.43 units

The odds have actually improved and Joe Daddy is now only -245, so get your money in if you haven't made this bet yet.

EXPERIMENT:

Below are my picks for my running experiment. Keep in mind these are notional and I didn't actually make these bets. I am just keeping track of what I would bet to see if the system will work. Bet size is 1 unit for every fight, so I will just list my pick and the amount to win.

Cain Velasquez(-122): win .82 units
Wanderlei Silva(-155): win .64 units
Joe Stevenson(-245): win .41 units
Ryan Bader(-165): win .61 units
Krzysztof Soszynki(-200): win .5units
Chris Lytle(-145): win .69 units
CB Dolloway(+200): win 2 units
Mirko Crocop:(-675): PASS
Igor Pokrajac(+123): PASS

BTW I really hope I am wrong with my Velasquez pick. I would LOVE to see the Pride guys go 3-0 on this card.

Anyway, I have been wanting to try this approach for a while so it will be interesting to see how it turns out. The good thing is that with this many bets the you are counting on your overall ability to correctly pick the winner a majority of the time in the long term. The best part is that with a large quantity of small bets your swings are much less dramatic, which is appealing.

I will do this notionally for a few events and if it works I will start doing it with actual bets.

Enjoy the fights!!


-The Wise Guy

Experiment Time

Starting with this card I am going to be running an experiment. I have thought before about what would happen if I tried to pick a winner and bet on almost every fight with a static unit size. So starting with this card I am going to pick notional bets for almost every fight on the cards. I am giving myself 2 passes per card if I want to take them, in case there are fights that I just have no idea, or have never heard of the fighters, etc.

I am not yet going to be placing any actual bets, I am just going to keep track of what the results would be to see if it is a profitable system.

Here are the guidelines I plan on following for the system:
- All bets placed only a day or two before the fights; no earlier.
- Bet size is 1 unit, regardless of the line.
- I can skip a maximum of 2 fights per card. I must bet on all the others.


I will post my picks/bets the day before or the day of the fights. Should be interesting!


-The Wise Guy
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Arb Bet opportunity and theory

Well we already have an opportunity to arb out of our bet on Rampage/Rashad. We put our bet on Jackson at -122, and as of right now Rashad is +137. I am going to hold off though until much closer to fight time to see what the final odds will be, as it may get even better. I will ponder this fight a little more and decide if I want to take the arb opportunity, but I am just letting you know it is there if you want it.

At the current odds, a bet of 1.536 units on Rashad will give the maximum arbitrage opportunity and deliver .104 units regardless of the outcome of the fight. So if your unit size is 100 bucks, you will win $10.40 no matter who wins.

One thing I have been thinking about with regards to arb bet is the fact that most of the time it is done to give an equal result regardless of outcome. In the above calculations for example, the bets are placed so that the amount won is the same no matter who wins the fight. This is pretty much the standard way to use an arbitrage opportunity.

This is curious though, because we have already determined through our own handicapping that the there is not an equal likelihood of each fighter winning. Meaning, we view Rampage as more likely to win, hence the original bet.

For this reason, it seems more reasonable and profitable for the advantage player to use the arb opportunity simply to eliminate risk, as opposed to guarantee a equal return regardless of outcome.

If you are really an advantage player this should theoretically be more profitable in the long run (if you are not an advantage player you will lose money over the long term regardless).

To further explain, take the above example again. If we are a good handicapper, and view Rampage as more likely to win, why would we set up our arb opportunity to favor each outcome equally? it makes much more sense to structure the bet sizes so that if Rashad wins you just push. You don't win anything, but you don't lose anything either. That maximizes the profit for the outcome that we have already decided is more likely, but it eliminates any risk.

So for this fight you would bet 1.46 units on Rashad at the current odds. This would give you .18 units ($18 assuming a $100 unit) if Rampage wins, and you would push if Rashad wins. May not seem like much better at first, but it is giving you about 80% more profit if Rampage wins (which we had already decided is more likely anyway)

Obviously you can structure the arb bet to distribute the guaranteed profits however you wish between the two outcomes, based on how likely you view each.

Something to think about.



-The Wise Guy

Anderson Silva, BJ Penn, and Kenny Florian

The lines are open for Anderson silva, BJ Penn, and Kenny Florian.

I expect all of them to win their fights, but the odds are pretty high (-575, -700, and -310, respectively)

Too high for Anderson, hopefully it will come down. No bet for now. Too high to bother on BJ Penn too, although it does seem like free money. This is pretty much as close to a lock as you can get. The problem is you just have to risk so much for so little.

Kenny florian is worth a bet, as I think he will win. I was going to go 3 and 3 (units) on Florian and Roy Nelson, but I decided to instead just put it all on Nelson. The odds are basically the same (I actually got Nelson @ -295) and I feel Nelson is much more likely to win. I think Florian will win too, I just think it is possible for him to lose this fight. I don't see how it is possible for Roy to lose his fight, barring some freak injury or something.

So for now no bet on any of these 3 fighters. I am hopeful that the Silva line may come down. I don't think BJ or Florian will though. Keep watching just in case though.



-The Wise guy

Early Action

Just put down 2 bets:

Roy Nelson (-295) vs Stefan Struve: 6 units to win 2.03 units

Quinton Jackson(-122) vs Rashad Evans: 2 units to win 1.64 units

The line on Crocop is down to -135. Bummer, wished I'd waited.



-The Wise Guy

Rumble vs Doomsday - OFF

So the Anthony Johnson vs John Howard fight has been canceled due to a shoulder injury on the part of johnson. This isn't the first time this matchup has been postponed. Sadly this is a fight that we were betting on, so we lose that action.

I'm not sure why, but it seems like an inordinate amount of the fights that get canceled are fights that I have action on. It is hard to find solid bets and I don't put money on very many fights so I don't like to see them called off. I will try to find a replacement bet but I'm not going to force anything.

There are a couple of fights I am watching in that card though, so I am hopeful. I am waiting for the odds on:

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello: Kongo will be a big favorite, but there is no way he loses this fight, so hopefully the odds will be under control so we can put some money on it.

Mike Pierce vs Rob Kimmons: Pierce has looked like a powerhouse in his first couple of fights in the UFC and almost stole a decision from #2 welterweight in the world, Jon Fitch. His relative obscurity should help keep the line low to begin though so I am hopeful he won't open as a massive favorite.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga: I have mentioned this fight before, and as long as the odds don't get worse I will be placing a unit on Gonzaga. The JDS Hype is out of control and there is no reason he should be that big of a favorite. I am waiting to see if maybe the line may actually get better for Gonzaga. I plan on taking him for anything better than +200, but I am waiting til a little closer to fight time.


So while we lost the opportunity on one bet there are still some promising fights on this card. Keep your eyes peeled for the lines.



- The Wise Guy

UFC 112 - Maia vs Anderson Silva

For those of you who don't know, Demian Maia has been announced as the replacement for Vitor Belfort against Anderson Silva. Obviously Maia isn't the real front-runner for a title shot in a normal situation, but it is still an intriguing matchup. My initial instinct is that Anderson would blow him out of the water. Maia is decent at takedowns, (and even managed to takedown and submit chael sonnen, who is a much better wrestler than Silva) but his approach is not great. He just sort of charges in. Nate Marquardt exposed that flaw when he fought Maia, and although he is great on the feet he is no Anderson Silva.

The interesting thing is that Maia has a real chance at submitting anderson on the ground. So even though he will likely have a harder time getting it to the ground than somebody like Henderson, Sonnen, etc, he doesn't necessarily have to do it for 5 rounds like they would. Once on the ground he has a legit chance at getting the finish. I don't think anybody else at middle weight really does.

Anderson is a black belt, but he isn't on the level of Maia. It does give me pause that he wasn't able to submit Miller inside of 3 rounds though.

All together an interesting match-up. I still expect a rather easy victory for Anderson though, simply because I feel like Maia will get picked apart trying to get inside for the TD.

I will be looking for decent odds on Silva to hopefully place a bet (sorry Scientist), but he may be too big a favorite.


UPDATE:

This thread on Sherdog.com shows a glimpse of the public perception of this fight. If a large quantity of people really think this fight is anywhere near 50/50 then we may get a better line then I thought. So like I said in the comments, if the line opens with Silva as a very large favorite, give it a day or two because a lot of money may come in on Maia and give us a better line on Silva.

-The Wise Guy

Lines to watch - with analysis

Here are some upcoming fights that I am waiting to see the lines for. I have highlighted the fighter that could be worth a bet depending on how the lines open (In some of the match-ups both fighters are highlighted because either one could have value depending on the line. (which could be true of every fight I guess).

Fedor Emelianenko vs Fabricio Werdum
I think Fedor will open as a fairly big favorite here, but there could still be some value here because there is almost no way for Werdum to win this fight. Fedor has better, faster, more powerful stand-up, will control where the fight goes, and can stay out of submission trouble when on the ground. This will look a lot like his fights with Nogueira except he will probably get the TKO stoppage.


Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields
Shields is an ADCC level grappler, but is generally pretty crappy on the feet. At least compared to the level of opposition he should be facing. His wrestling is good but he is up against one of the best wrestlers in MMA, who also happens to have devastating standup. Dan can and has been submitted, so Shields can definitely threaten him there, but he has gotten past a lot of talented submission artists (like Palhares) and this fight probably won't hit the ground unless Dan wants it to. I see Shields taking a beating on the feet. and probably getting finished.


Gegard Mousasi vs King Mo Lawal
I have no idea where the line on this fight will open, but I see Mousasi winning this fight by submission. I predict He will probably be too big a favorite to put a bet on it though, but keep an eye out because with King Mo's overwhelming performances fresh in people's minds, he might come in overvalued against the much more reserved yet equally as dangerous (and more well-rounded) Mousasi.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
These two have already met once, with Fitch emerging as the victor. Fitch is one of the most consistent performers in the division, if not all of MMA. These factors, as well as Alves' recent beating at the hands of GSP, may combine to give us favorable odds on him in this fight. While Fitch has been top tier for a long time, he hasn't markedly improved since the last Alves fight. Thiago however, has seemed to improve quite a bit and has gotten even better with his takedown defense (which works to beat Fitch's biggest weapon). Even GSP had trouble holding Alves down, and Fitch isn't as good in the standup department as GSP is either. All of this seems to add up to a probable win for Thiago Alves, so watch out for a favorable line.

Josh Koscheck vs Paul Daley
Depending on the line on this fight either fighter could be worth a bet. If Koscheck plays it smart he should be able to win this fight fairly easily. Daley's ground skills are such that Koscheck will be able to take him down at will and keep him there as long as he wants. On the other hand, Koscheck has recently shown a penchant for trying out the standup game. He is getting pretty good too, but it has cost him, with loss to Paulo Thiago (and even Hazelett knocked him down). If he tries to stand with Daley he will get knocked out, I'm sure of it. So I am curious to see what the line is, and would consider a bet on either fighter based on the lines. I predict close lines and a bet on Koscheck though.

BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar
Simply put, there is no way for Frankie Edgar to win this fight. Before the last couple of BJ Penn's fights, I may have said Edgar may be able to outwork him in the later rounds, but that doesn't even seem possible now. Even cardio kings like Florian, Stevenson, and Diego Sanchez couldn't get Penn breathing hard. This will be a blowout. I just hope the odds aren't too crazy so I can place a bet on Penn.


Mike Brown vs Manny Gamburyan
Manny Gamburyan seems to be a smaller, less-technical, version of Mike Brown. I think mike brown has better stand-up, more power, and better wrestling. I think he will be able to control the pace wherever the fight goes, and stay out of submission trouble. I see him wearing Manny down and getting the unanimous decision. He will probably be a large favorite, but we will check out the line when it opens and make the decision then.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 110

Crocop vs rothwell: I have been looking at this fight long and hard, and I finally decided to put a unit on it. There is no reason Crocop should be this small of a favorite against Rothwell. Rothwell really doesn't have anything for him on paper. The problem is Crocop has fought abysmally lately, and shown no desire or aggressiveness. Despite this he still did OK against JDS even though he only threw like 30 strikes the entire fight. So there is a chance CC could flake and get taken down a lot or leaned on against the fence and donk off a decision, but I think with those possibilities included he still has value at -150. I am being cautious though and only putting down 1 unit.

So my bets so far for UFC 110 are:

Mirko Crocop(-150) vs Ben Rothwell: 1 unit to win .66 units
Joe Stevenson(-280) vs George Sotiropoulos: 4 units to win 1.43 units

we'll see how the rest of the lines look when they come out. That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 109 Results

Well we went 2-1 in our bets, and ended up the night down about .1 units. Mac Danzig and Couture both won, but Surprisingly Marquardt lost a decision. I really wish now that we had taken the Arb opportunity on that bet. It would have guaranteed only about .1 units (for that particular bet) but overall we would have been up about 3 units for the event as a whole, instead of down .1 units. Big difference.

We have some bets coming up and will be back to our winning ways soon enough.




- The Wise Guy

UFC 109 update - Mac Danzig

The rest of the lines have opened for UFC 109. I already mentioned the Danzig/Bucholz fight, and the Line opened with Mac at -300, so we will be taking him for 4 units. Jump on this now because I predict he will be closer to -400 by fight time.

None of the other lines really jump out at me. If anything changes I will post about it.

All my current bets for UFC 109:

Nate Marquardt(-275) vs Chael Sonnen: 3 units to win 1.09 units
Mac Danzig(-300) vs Justin Buchholz: 4 units to win 1.33 units
Randy Couture(-385) vs Mark Coleman: 6 units to win 1.56 units

with Chael Sonnen now at +315 you can arb out of that one if you want and guarantee yourself a fraction of a unit. I have decided not to in this case, because I am confident in the outcome.


-The Wise Guy

Lines to watch

There are several fights coming up in future events that I suspect could have some good value. Watch for these lines because we may jump on them if they open at good deals:

Justin Bucholz vs Mac Danzig
Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello
Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek
Rousimar Palhares vs Tomasz Drwal
Forrest Griffin vs Little Nog

I am very confident in the highlighted fighters to win these matchups, and am hopeful for decent odds. So keep checking back because if the lines open and are good, you will want to get on it before they change.

I will likely go into the fights in more depth in the future, but I just wanted to post a heads up of lines to watch for.



-The Wise guy