I have 2 bets for this event:
Brock Lesnar(-140) vs Cain Velazquez: 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann(+180) vs Jake Shields: 1 unit to win 1.8 units
Overall: 2.4 units to win 2.8 units
Kampmann was at +215 a few days ago and I am kicking myself for not getting on that soon enough. I didn't think it would drop like that. I think he has the TD defense to stay out of trouble, and will light Shields up on the feet.
A lot is made of Cains cardio, but honestly Brock's is very good too. Definitely above average for the heavyweight division. And it is a lot more difficult to grapple with somebody who is much bigger AND also very good. In other words, out-wrestling Kongo just isn't going to be that tiring for a wrestler with Cain's skills. Cain has much better boxing, but if Carwin couldn't put Lesnar away I doubt cain will be knocking him out. Can Cain outbox Lesnar AND stop his takedowns at the same time? That is the question. I don't think Cain (or anybody else) can survive being under Lesnar for very long, the question is can he keep from ending up there. I don't think he can, not for the whole fight.
Cain has shown the ability to get rocked as well. He is used to enjoying a significant speed and wrestling advantage, and both will be mostly neutralized by Brock. I think Brock gets the TKO via ground and pound in round.
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