Bellator 26 and UFC 118 - Results

The only play I had for Bellator 26 came through for me:

Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly: +1 unit


The fight went just about like I thought it would. Ward scored early with a judo-throw takedown, and controlled the fight with her grappling, winning a unanimous decision.


UFC 118 wasn't as successful for me, as I went 0-2.

Kenny Florian(-130) vs Gray Maynard: -2 units
Marcus Davis(+165) vs Nate Diaz: -.5 units

I was just totally on the wrong side of the line with both od these fights. Kenny didn't seem as dedicated to immediately getting back to his feet as he did in the Guida fight, and when both fighters were on the feet it was very tentative.

Davis just had no answer for Diaz's reach advantage and awkward boxing style. He did hit Nate with a fair number of hard shots early in the fight, but his chin held up.

Definitely a disappointing event, but the losses weren't too bad, and were mitigated by my win from the Bellator event.

I'm still closing out August up 2.3 units, so still a solid month.


There are plenty of MMA events in September, so hopefully there will be some good odds on some of the fights. Stay tuned.



-The Wise Guy

Bellator 26

I only have one bet so far on Bellator 26

Lisa Ward(-105) vs Aisling Daly(-125): 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I think Daly is the slight favorite here simply due to her being the slightly larger of the two fighters having competed at higher weights, and her undefeated record. While Ward will most likely be smaller, she is strong and has enjoyed a significant strength advantage over her previous opponents, so I think in terms of pure physicality these two will be pretty evenly matched.

on top of that Ward is a multiple-time grappling champion in no-gi and gi. Her striking is technically sound, as is her overall technique in general. On the other hand Daly has appeared more sloppy in some of her bouts.

I think Ward is a more well-rounded, more technical fighter, and has benefitted from higher quality opposition in the past. I think she is more technical on the feet, and her grappling should allow her to control the fight and threaten with submissions, even if she ends up on the bottom.




-The Wise Guy

Strikeforce and UFC 118 and 119

I don't have any bets for Strikeforce tonight. If I was going to make a bet, it would be on Jacare @ -200 over Tim Kennedy. Noons is going to beat Gurgel, but the odds aren't great.

For UFC 118 I already have 2 units on Florian, and I just added another bet:

Marcus Davis (+165) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win .825 units

Though I think Nate will probably get the takedown at some point, he is usually content to trade with people. Davis has solid wrestling and much better striking. He is bigger stronger, faster, and has solid TD defense. He has enough submission savvy that getting taken down isn't like an automatic win for diaz either. I think he will be able to pull out a decision win here.

I also made another bet, for UFC 119, because I think the line might get worse:

Mirko Cro Cop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units

Crocop has excellent takedown defense, and Mir has never had amazing takedowns. Add to that the fact that Mirko should have a solid advantage in the striking, and it is a little interesting that he is the underdog in this fight. If somehow the odds get even better closer to fight time I will probably add another unit to this play, if he gets better than +200.

That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 117 Results

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: +3.15 units
Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: +1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: -1 unit

2-1 on bets, + 3.89 units

It is good to see that when I go back to my normal methods I can consistently get winning events again.

Not a bad night of bets at all. I wish I had bet more on Clay and Fitch, especially at those awesome odds. I was convinced they would win, but the odds were so off I thought maybe I was missing something and started to doubt myself a little. In the end, both fights went almost exactly as I thought (I thought Clay would get a UD, not a submission).

Hazelett didn't pull out the win, so I am glad I only put one unit there. Havn't seen the fight yet, but apparently it was TKO in the 2nd. Not sure if that was standing or from GNP though. That's two in a row for him, hopefully he bounces back.

Main event was crazy.

Matt Hughes had an awesome performance. I actually expected him to lose that fight, and he goes out there and completely dominates.

Decent event overall. Any positive event leaves me in a good mood.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 117 betting picks

As I wrote in an earlier post, I already have a bet on Jon fitch:

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units

As of right now Fitch is at about -120. I would still make this bet at these odds.

My other action for this card is:

Clay Guida(-115) vs Raphael Dos Anjos: 2 units to win 1.74
Dustin Hazelett(-115) vs Rick Story: 1 unit to win .87 units

Total: 6 units to win 5.76units

While Dos Anjos has a chance to get a submission for sure, Guida has shown incredible submission defense. The only times he has gotten submitted is when he has been hurt bad with punches. Dos Anjos is much better on the feet to be sure, but I don't think he can stop the takedowns and deal with Guida's pace for the distance. Guida by UD. I am a big fan of Guida's as well, so I would love to see him win here.

I am also a big Hazelett fan, and that is part of the reason I am betting on him here. I do think he will win though. I think he has a wrestling disadvantage but he is very dangerous with his BJJ and can certainly finish this fight from his back.

Other than these fights there isn't much on this card to bet. Saunders isn't a bad bet against hallman. He's a little high though, but I would bet him under -200. Hendricks will win, but its not worth it for those odds. When are they going to give him a top 10 opponent?

Should be a solid card overall. Can't wait!

-The Wise Guy