I don't have any bets for Strikeforce tonight. If I was going to make a bet, it would be on Jacare @ -200 over Tim Kennedy. Noons is going to beat Gurgel, but the odds aren't great.
For UFC 118 I already have 2 units on Florian, and I just added another bet:
Marcus Davis (+165) vs Nate Diaz: .5 units to win .825 units
Though I think Nate will probably get the takedown at some point, he is usually content to trade with people. Davis has solid wrestling and much better striking. He is bigger stronger, faster, and has solid TD defense. He has enough submission savvy that getting taken down isn't like an automatic win for diaz either. I think he will be able to pull out a decision win here.
I also made another bet, for UFC 119, because I think the line might get worse:
Mirko Cro Cop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Crocop has excellent takedown defense, and Mir has never had amazing takedowns. Add to that the fact that Mirko should have a solid advantage in the striking, and it is a little interesting that he is the underdog in this fight. If somehow the odds get even better closer to fight time I will probably add another unit to this play, if he gets better than +200.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
I like that CroCop bet. I am going to make the same play if the line stays put. CroCop could not hope for a better style matchup. The only possible hangup is if Mir is actually a better striker than CroCop at this point, which I think is totally plausible given their recent outings.
ReplyDeleteThe only fight where it looked like Mir had great boxing was the Big Nog fight. Nog has always blocked a fair number of punches with his face, and add to that a staph infection and a chin degraded by years of abuse, and you have the perfect recipe for Mir looking like a striking ace when really he isn't.
ReplyDeleteMir has sound technical boxing, but i think his striking style is tailor made to be picked apart by Cro Cop's counter striking. I don't see Mir pressuring Mirko enough in the striking to give him problems, and I think when he moves forward he will eat some straight lefts and middle kicks for his efforts.
He did also drop Kongo with a punch. Just sayin... it has be scared that Mir might actually be able to strike.
ReplyDelete