UFC 121

I have 2 bets for this event:

Brock Lesnar(-140) vs Cain Velazquez: 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Martin Kampmann(+180) vs Jake Shields: 1 unit to win 1.8 units

Overall: 2.4 units to win 2.8 units


Kampmann was at +215 a few days ago and I am kicking myself for not getting on that soon enough. I didn't think it would drop like that. I think he has the TD defense to stay out of trouble, and will light Shields up on the feet.


A lot is made of Cains cardio, but honestly Brock's is very good too. Definitely above average for the heavyweight division. And it is a lot more difficult to grapple with somebody who is much bigger AND also very good. In other words, out-wrestling Kongo just isn't going to be that tiring for a wrestler with Cain's skills. Cain has much better boxing, but if Carwin couldn't put Lesnar away I doubt cain will be knocking him out. Can Cain outbox Lesnar AND stop his takedowns at the same time? That is the question. I don't think Cain (or anybody else) can survive being under Lesnar for very long, the question is can he keep from ending up there. I don't think he can, not for the whole fight.

Cain has shown the ability to get rocked as well. He is used to enjoying a significant speed and wrestling advantage, and both will be mostly neutralized by Brock. I think Brock gets the TKO via ground and pound in round.

UFC 120

I really only have one bet right now for UFC 120:

Dan Hardy(-160) vs Carlos Condit: 2 units to win 1.25 units


While Dan Hardy never has struck me as an especially dynamic fighter, he is effective, and it is tough to make him look bad or to hurt him.

He has shown effective striking, great submission defense, and solid takedown defense.

Condit is a very solid, well-rounded fighter, and actually is very dynamic. The trouble is he takes risks, gives up position, and really fights aggressively. This makes for good fights, but it doesn't always put him in a great position to win decisions if he can't overwhelm or finish his opponents. I think this fight will play out with Condit being the aggressor, and Hardy responding with great defense, and more effective, damaging striking, and ultimately get him the decision win.


-The Wise Guy