UFC 134 - Breakdown and betting picks

Anderson Silva vs Yushin Okami

This fight all boils down to one issue: can Okami do what Chael sonnen did? My answer is, I don't think so. Okami has much better submission defense, and I don't think he will be getting submitted, but he is not nearly as aggressive with his takedowns as Sonnen. I think for sure he will get some takedowns, but he isn't known for crushing GNP either. Anderson is tough, and I think Okami will have to absorb a lot of punishment to be able to get this fight down, and not be able to dish out as much when he gets it there. At -525 though, I don't see a ton of value on Anderson. and Even at +375 I don't really like okami. So for me if you want action on this fight, take the under at -200. Anderson has finished all of his fights when he feels like actually fighting, and I think being in Brazil will fire him up enough to do it here. The Sonnen fight has me spooked though, so I'm sitting this one out.

Forrest Griffin vs Shogun Rua

I honestly think Forrest is being undervalued in this fight. Big time. In fact, he is my straight-up pick to win. He is bigger, a better wrestler, and has very underrated submissions. His standup is very good as well. He has been caught a couple times, but the only time he has really been outworked in the standup was in the Silva fight. If he fights smart I think this could look similar to the Rich Franklin fight where he can out muscle him.

Whether or not you actually think Forrest will win or not, the odds are off. Only a plan on Forrest is warranted here. If you just can't stomach that, try the over. At -145 it is a great deal for an over with 2 fighters that are known for being durable and tough to finish. I'm putting my money on forrest though. Too good to pass up at these odds. I recommend a smallish play on Forrest to win, or on the over.

My bet: Forrest Griffin (+190): 1.5 units to win 2.85 units


Brendan Schaub vs Big Nog

I am a huge fan of Big Nog, but I can't help but think he is gonna get finished again in this fight. He is coming back from hip replacement surgery for crying out loud, and had to have physical therapy just to walk again. I think this will look a lot like the Mir fight. I do think Schaub will win, but I don't know, I just have an uneasy feeling about this fight. Nog is crafty. Still, I have no logical reason to say why you shouldn't take Schaub at -250, so I have to tentatively recommend a play here.


Ross Pearson vs Edson Barboza

This should be an exciting facepaced fight against two strikers. I think this is a step up for barboza. In this fight again I am going for the over. Its at basically even odds, and these are both durable fighters, and in the lightweight division we see less knockouts anyway.

UPDATE: at +260, you GOTTA have some action on Pearson here. These odds are wack.

Ross Pearson vs Edson Barboza: .5 units to win 1.3 units

Pearson vs Barboza, The Over (-105): 1.05 units to win 1 unit


I also am taking the under in the Paulo Thiago/ Mitchell fight. I honestly don't know too much about Mitchell, but there is a big disparity in the lines. Thiago is a -400 favorite, but the under is actually paying DOG odds. One of those is bogus. I'm betting the its the under. You can't be a -400 favorite over somebody without having a decent chance of finishing them within the distance, so I am making a small play here.

Thiago/mitchell The Under(+155): 1 unit to win 1.55 units


My Anchor bet for the evening is Rousimar Palhares over Dan Miller. Miller is a very solid fighter I just don't think he is dangerous enough to a guy like Palhares. He isn't going to control him with grappling, he isn't going to submit him, and he hasn't shown to have real knockout power really either. And there is always a chance Palhares will tear some ligaments. Man if there is one guy I would be afraid to fight, its him.

Rousimar Palhares(-285) vs Dan Miller: 3 units to win 1.05 units


UPDATE: I also think you can't pass up Spencer Fisher at +165. His wrestling defense could be a problem, but Thiago tavares has wilted against opponents who he can't put away and who keep coming at him. Spencer fisher is one of those guys. He will always keep fighting, end even if he is solidly controlled in the first round (which I think he will be) he will discourage Tavares when he still comes out to fight for the next two rounds. He has a great gas tank too, and I don't think tavares does.

Spencer Fisher(+165) vs Thiago Tavares: .5 units to win .825 units.


That's all for now. Enjoy the fights.

UFC on versus

Just got back from out of town, So I have to make this quick:

my play for the evening is Jim Miller(-150) vs Ben Henderson: 2 units to win 1.33 units

That's all for now. Sorry I didn't get to post analysis of any of the fights. I had a bet on strikeforce challengers that I won too, but I didn't have a chance to post if before the event. I'll talk more about that later. Later.

- The Wise Guy

UFC 133 - Rashad Evens vs Tito Ortiz

Tonight my action is 3 bets on 3 substantial dogs, because I believe they are undervalued, and I feel at least one of them will come through for me. Which will make me positive for the evening.

Tito has shown he can hang with Rashad, and would have actually beaten him last time if not for the point deduction. That being said, that was a LONG time ago, 4 years actually. Rashad has come a long way while Tito has basically stagnated. Rashad is rightly the favorite, but I think he is too big of a favorite.

I really doubt he is going to be finishing Tito. Tito has been losing a lot, but he has not been dominated. And most of Rashad's improvements have come in his standup, which was already better than tito. The question will be if he can stay on his feet and stop Tito from being on top. If Tito can get on top for a decent amount of time, he can win this fight. He is much bigger than Rashad as well. at nearly +350 Tito is the only bet here, especially considering his last fight.
My bet:

Tito Ortiz (+335) vs Rashad Evans: .5 units to win 1.68 units

If you don't think Tito will win at all, but don't like the odds on Rashad, consider the over bet. This fight has a high chance of going the distance, so -230 isn't bad.

My other bets are

Mike Pyle (+215) vs Rory MacDonald - .5 units to win 1.08 units
Rani Yahya (+435) vs Chad Mendes - .25 units to win 1.09 units

Both of these fighters are at least slightly undervalued, IMO, and have styles such that they have a clear path to a possible victory, however unlikely. I structured my bets so that I only need one of these three bets to come through for me to be positive for the night. and even if all three fail I am only out 1.25 units.

other bets to consider:

Gustaffson at -160 over Hammil. I think he matches up well and has good takedown defense. I just haven't seen him fight the same level of opponents that Hammil has been facing.

The over on Tito/rashad at -230

Hendricks/ Pierce over at -240.

That's all for now. Enjoy!


-The Wise Guy