Tonight my action is 3 bets on 3 substantial dogs, because I believe they are undervalued, and I feel at least one of them will come through for me. Which will make me positive for the evening.
Tito has shown he can hang with Rashad, and would have actually beaten him last time if not for the point deduction. That being said, that was a LONG time ago, 4 years actually. Rashad has come a long way while Tito has basically stagnated. Rashad is rightly the favorite, but I think he is too big of a favorite.
I really doubt he is going to be finishing Tito. Tito has been losing a lot, but he has not been dominated. And most of Rashad's improvements have come in his standup, which was already better than tito. The question will be if he can stay on his feet and stop Tito from being on top. If Tito can get on top for a decent amount of time, he can win this fight. He is much bigger than Rashad as well. at nearly +350 Tito is the only bet here, especially considering his last fight.
My bet:
Tito Ortiz (+335) vs Rashad Evans: .5 units to win 1.68 units
If you don't think Tito will win at all, but don't like the odds on Rashad, consider the over bet. This fight has a high chance of going the distance, so -230 isn't bad.
My other bets are
Mike Pyle (+215) vs Rory MacDonald - .5 units to win 1.08 units
Rani Yahya (+435) vs Chad Mendes - .25 units to win 1.09 units
Both of these fighters are at least slightly undervalued, IMO, and have styles such that they have a clear path to a possible victory, however unlikely. I structured my bets so that I only need one of these three bets to come through for me to be positive for the night. and even if all three fail I am only out 1.25 units.
other bets to consider:
Gustaffson at -160 over Hammil. I think he matches up well and has good takedown defense. I just haven't seen him fight the same level of opponents that Hammil has been facing.
The over on Tito/rashad at -230
Hendricks/ Pierce over at -240.
That's all for now. Enjoy!
-The Wise Guy
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