Wednesday, June 30, 2010

UFC 116 UPDATE

Chris Lytle(-200) vs Mike Brown: 5 units to win 2.5 units

How Could Mike brown win this fight?

Submission? Doubtful. I don't even know if Brown is purple belt level yet, and Lytle is a legit BB, Never submitted in 50 fights.

Top control for 3 rounds? Again, doubtful. Lytle's grappling is excellent. He has avoided being controlled by much better wrestlers and grapplers than Brown.

Knockout? Once again, not likely. Lytle is a 17-1 professional boxer. He has fast hands, solid power, and a good chin. His only 2 TKO stoppages in his 50 fights have come due to cuts. He has never been stopped from anything else. Considering the opposition he has faced, I doubt Brown will be the one to do it, despite his solid striking.

Outstriking for 3 rounds? This is the only possible way for brown to win IMO. Possible, not likely. Technical striking advantage goes to lytle. Cardio advantage also probably goes to Lytle.

To top it all off, Lytle already beat Brown once, three years ago. Guillotine in the 2nd. My money (literally) is on Lytle, especially at these gift odds.

I am betting enough to basically cover the rest of my bets. I should have waited a little longer on lesnar as his odds keep going down.


Also, I don't want to put any more units at risk with this card, but at +160 Pellegrino is an awesome bet.


-The Wise Guy

Monday, June 28, 2010

UFC 116 Lesnar vs Carwin - Betting Picks

Right now I have the following bets:

Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: .5 units to win .825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: .5 units to win .675 units

I am going to cover these with a bet to win 1 unit on Lesnar, but I am waiting because his odds are slowly getting better. Right now they are at about -157.

UPDATE: I don't know how often I will be able to check odds over the next few days, so I went ahead and locked in Lesnar at -155.

Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: 1.55 units to win 1 unit

Total for UFC 116: Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units

LESNAR vs CARWIN: What it comes down to is Carwin is just not very well rounded. He has inhuman punching power, and has been able to use it effectively over and over again. But that is ALL he has. His wrestling is overrated (he tends to bull-rush in and stumble around) and I believe most success in controlling his mostly less-than-stellar opposition is due to his size and strength. Even if I am wrong, his wrestling on paper, and in the ring, doesn't hold a candle to Lesnar's. I have seen nothing to suggest that he will be able to stop Lesnar's take downs.

Carwin's striking, while almost impossibly powerful, is stiff slow, and not technical. I actually believe lesnar has shown better technical striking for the most part. Carwin also takes a lot of hits, and was getting outstruck by Gonzaga and Neil Wain (who) before landing his knockout punches.

basically Carwin HAS to get his patented "knockout within 2 minutes" to win this fight. As long as Lesnar just shoots a double right out of the gate, and drives halfway across the cage a al vintage Koscheck, I think the fight is his. I don't think Carwin's poor defense will let him survive being under lesnar for very long.

Of course carwin as proven to be very good at doing just what he needs to to win this fight, and Lesnar is coming off a long layoff with a hospital stay and surgery, so there are some intangibles.
But the odds are very good, and I will only be risking about 1.5 - 1.7 units, unless the odds change drastically.

LEBEN vs SEXYAMA: The Sexy one I believe will have his hands full with this fight. While I think he has probably better technical striking and is, overall, a more well rounded, technically skilled fighter, I think Leben poses some unique problems for him.

For starters, Akiyama is undersized for the middleweight division. We saw this be somewhat of a problem for him against belcher. Leben also has shown excellent takedown defense, especially lately in his fight against Simpson, so Akiyama will have a difficult time taking it to the ground. Leben will have to watch out for the judo throws though.

I think this fight will play out on the feet, with a fair amount of clinch work. Akiyama will get theh better of the striking exchanges early, but without much damage to leben. after the first round I think the clinch work with the bigger leben, along with the occasional Leben-bomb that gets through, will start to wear on him. I think the 2 and third rounds will go to leben, and he will take a UD.

GROVE vs RELJIC

No real in-depth thoughts behind this one. I just think Kendall has enough to get him to the ground and submit him.

None of these fights are super one sided, but the odds are cheap and I have structured it so I can push in multiple scenarios. As long as I win any 2 I will push or come very close (depending on the Lesnar odds). if lesnar wins I will at least push.

Should be some interesting fights!!



-The Wise Guy

Monday, June 21, 2010

Early Odds - Fitch and Florian

There are a couple of lines on some upcoming events that I think are just too good to pass up.

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves

Simply put, there is just no way Fitch should anything other than a solid favorite here. He is probably THE most consistent performer in all of mma. Other than the loss to GSP, he has continued to do his thing, which is dominating everybody else.

In the meantime, Thiago has been doing his thing, and seems to have gotten better at what he was already good at. But, just like Art Jimmerson didn't lose to Royce because he wasn't a good enough boxer, Alves didn't lose to Fitch because his striking wasn't good enough. Despite his improvement he is just not going to be able to control the fight. I don't think Fitch will get anywhere near finishing him this time, but Fitch's game should be able to stop him from mounting much of an offense. When Alves isn't getting taken down or getting back up, he is going to be defending takedowns from the clinch. And I think he will be able to defend it well at first, but I don't think he can handle Fitch's "grind".

When all is said and done, there is no reason to think Fitch won't be able to grind out a decision here. And with that being said , +105 is a STEAL.

MY BET: Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units


Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard

Gray Maynard performed very well since his loss on the Ultimate Fighter, and remains undefeated. Recently he seems like he may have come down with a moderate case of 'boxitis', which caused him to take a split decision over Nate Diaz when he should have been able to solidly control that fight. Now he may have been worried about going to the ground with Diaz, and purposefully kept the fight on the feet. Well, he has just as much to worry about in the ground game of Kenny florian, and much more to worry about in his standup. And while other people seem to be able to only strike OR defend the takedown, Kenny seems to be able to successfully defend the takedown while still mounting a successful offense.

When all is said and done, Maynard has a lot more to worry about than Kenny. He is one of the most well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, has burned through top competition with ease, and is a deal at these odds.

MY BET: Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard: 2 units to win 1.48 units


I have a feeling both of these lines will get worse, so jump on it.



-The Wise Guy

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - SWEEP

RESULTS
Hail to the king:

Court McGee(-215)
vs Chris McCray: +1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: +1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: + .775 units

BETS: 3-0, +3.15 units

I said I was gonna bet Jardine if he made it past+150, and he never did. So I never bet it, and I'm glad I didn't. Although I do feel he got screwed. With the point deduction that fight should have been a draw. I don't even think he should have gotten a point taken. People get poked all the time, and RARELY is a point deducted.

I think Leben got a generous stoppage in a technical sense, but I doubt the outcome would have been different had they let it go a few more seconds. I wasn't complaining.

The Siver/Fisher fight went about as I thought it would, and his slight edge played out.

On UFC fantasy I called Court McGee by choke in the 3rd, so the fight went almost exactly as I had anticipated.
I also called Leben by tko in the second, but I didn't get max points because I guessed it would happen in the 3rd minute instead of the 4th. How incredibly gay is that? I call the fight EXACTLY right and lose points because I was off on the finish time by less than 60 seconds. Their scoring system is horrible.



REFLECTIONS

This card provided some much needed units and an equally important morale boost. It is amazing mow much of a confidence booster it can be to have a successful night like this. I am definitely going to continue to do what I have in the beginning and bet few fights, and only those that I really feel I have a good handle on the outcome.

The 'bet almost every fight' strategy proved to be a very expensive experiment. I just wish I had done poorly when I was doing it notionally so I wouldn't have tried it with real bets.

I realized betting a lot of fights is like playing a lot of hands in poker; yeah you CAN win on any hand, but when there is no penalty for passing why not wait for the hands where you KNOW you have a significant advantage?

I am going back to my original strategy, which was decidedly simple: End the night positive. At all costs. Regardless of value, odds, whatever. The only goal is to gain units and NEVER lose them. This meant I bet WAY less fights, and skipped some cards altogether. But you know what? it worked. And it is much better to not make any bets at all than to lose a unit or two on some stupid speculating 'value' bets.



-The Wise Guy

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Me and Heath "The Texas Hold-em Crazy Horse" Herring

As I have mentioned before, I am currently deployed to Kuwait.
Sometimes celebrities or bands come through here on USO tours. The latest was to promote the "Circle of Pain" movie, and they brought Heath Herring, Bai Ling, and whoever the hell the other guy in the movie was.

I ran into Heath Herring at the USO poker tournament next door to where they were showing the movie, and got to play some hold-em with him. He's pretty good too, I might add.

I got a picture with him, but the douche that took it must have had some sort of palsy because it came out all blurry. You can still tell its him, and it sort of obscures how much of a semi-pubescent man-child I look like next to him.





- The Wise Guy

Ultimate Finale

BETS:

Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: 2.15 units to win 1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win 1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: .5 units to win .775 units


I am watching the line on Jardine. It keeps getting better. if he gets to +150 or better I will put .5 units on him. maybe 1 unit.

Based on the previous fight I think there is value on Baczynsky at his current odds of +190.
Attonitio isn't bad at -120 either, and I like Bryant as a dog against Noke. I am not betting any of these though, for the simple reason I am trying to limit my exposure for this card. I have been having a terrible run of it lately, and I'd like to see if I can come up positive for once.

- The Wise Guy

Saturday, June 12, 2010

UFC 115 results

Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit
Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1 unit
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1 unit

Total: 3-2, -.9 units

Did ok with my picks, but it seems like I can't get a positive event to save my life.

But I have never been so happy to lose a bet. Crocop looked awesome! And not just because he won. He looked like he wanted to be there, like he wanted the win. He fought back from being hurt early, mixed up his attacks, and won by submission!

I'm stoked. I have been a huge Crocop fan for years and lately he had just seemed like he had lost the will to fight. So glad to see him back in classic form.

The Tyson griffin loss is what kept me from having a + event. I knew I didn't like those odds. I haven't seen the fight, so I don't know how close it really was, but Evan Dunham is the real deal.
I will not take him lightly in the future.

Pyle looked good. I was a little hesitant with that bet because I couldn't tell exactly how I thought he would win, I just new he would be able to slightly out-class lennox in several areas. Lennox is much more one-dimensional. Turns out I was right.

Carlos condit performed like I hoped. Maybe lucky with the stoppage, because I don't know how a decision would have gone. He may have barely lost the first 2 rounds. This is why the fight as a whole type scoring is better. In my mind, obviously the domination in the 3rd round more than makes up for getting slightly outpointed for 2 rounds, but taking no damage. But even if he got a 10-8 it may have been a draw. Most of that is due to Condit's go-for-the finish style, which I love. He will sacrifice position and take those risks. It doesn't lend itself well to the 10 point must scoring, but I wish more fighters would fight that way.

The Rich / Chuck fight went exactly like I thought it would.

Thoughts:

  • Hat stealers!! haha
  • They need to speed up how long it takes to introduce the main event. I ducked out right when Goldie said "its time for our main event", and I had time to shower, shave, and jerk off 3 times to replays of Mirko's fight before the main event started. They seriously take 10-15 minutes, time it.
  • Pretty good event overall. No boring fights.
  • Wishing I had taken the plunge on Kampmann and Rothwell. Kampmann looked really sharp.

Another event coming up soon! That's all for now.

-The Wise Guy

Thursday, June 10, 2010

More UFC 115 action

Some more bets:

Carlos Condit(+115) vs Rory Macdonald: .87 units to win 1 unit
Tyson Griffin(-235) vs Evan Dunham: 2.35 units to win 1 unit
Mike Pyle(EV) vs Jesse Lennox: 1 unit to win 1 unit

I was hoping The Crow would come in as a favorite, but no dice.

I think Thiago will win, but the odds are getting close to it being a good deal on Kampmann. If he gets past +200 I will probably put half a unit on him.

Franklin came down a little actually, bummer. I should have waited.


that's all for now.

-The Wise Guy

Friday, June 4, 2010

UFC 115 Early Odds

Only a few of the lines for 115 have posted so far, but I wanted to get on these because I think they may change:

Rich Franklin(-150) vs Chuck Liddell: 1.5 units to win 1
Pat Barry(-155) vs Mirko Crocop: 1.55 units to win 1

I am a huge Crocop fan, but (even recent fights not withstanding) he has never done great against confident, aggressive strikers who are going to constantly move forward and push the pace. I see him losing a decision.

Same with Chuck. He is great at knocking out people who are trying to take him down. Against people with strict technical striking he has always floundered. Add to that his weak chin of late, and I think Franklin is a fairly safe bet here, and a deal at these odds.

I am watching the line for Danzig/Wiman closely. Right now they are both -115. I can make a case for either of these fighters winning. Right now I am actually leaning towards Wiman, although either guy would be a deal as a decent dog, so watch this line.

That's all for now.



-The Wise Guy