RESULTS
Hail to the king:
Court McGee(-215) vs Chris McCray: +1 unit
Chris Leben(+275) vs Aaron Simpson: +1.375 units
Dennis Siver(+155) vs Spencer Fisher: + .775 units
BETS: 3-0, +3.15 units
I said I was gonna bet Jardine if he made it past+150, and he never did. So I never bet it, and I'm glad I didn't. Although I do feel he got screwed. With the point deduction that fight should have been a draw. I don't even think he should have gotten a point taken. People get poked all the time, and RARELY is a point deducted.
I think Leben got a generous stoppage in a technical sense, but I doubt the outcome would have been different had they let it go a few more seconds. I wasn't complaining.
The Siver/Fisher fight went about as I thought it would, and his slight edge played out.
On UFC fantasy I called Court McGee by choke in the 3rd, so the fight went almost exactly as I had anticipated.
I also called Leben by tko in the second, but I didn't get max points because I guessed it would happen in the 3rd minute instead of the 4th. How incredibly gay is that? I call the fight EXACTLY right and lose points because I was off on the finish time by less than 60 seconds. Their scoring system is horrible.
REFLECTIONS
This card provided some much needed units and an equally important morale boost. It is amazing mow much of a confidence booster it can be to have a successful night like this. I am definitely going to continue to do what I have in the beginning and bet few fights, and only those that I really feel I have a good handle on the outcome.
The 'bet almost every fight' strategy proved to be a very expensive experiment. I just wish I had done poorly when I was doing it notionally so I wouldn't have tried it with real bets.
I realized betting a lot of fights is like playing a lot of hands in poker; yeah you CAN win on any hand, but when there is no penalty for passing why not wait for the hands where you KNOW you have a significant advantage?
I am going back to my original strategy, which was decidedly simple: End the night positive. At all costs. Regardless of value, odds, whatever. The only goal is to gain units and NEVER lose them. This meant I bet WAY less fights, and skipped some cards altogether. But you know what? it worked. And it is much better to not make any bets at all than to lose a unit or two on some stupid speculating 'value' bets.
-The Wise Guy
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