Early Odds - Fitch and Florian

There are a couple of lines on some upcoming events that I think are just too good to pass up.

Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves

Simply put, there is just no way Fitch should anything other than a solid favorite here. He is probably THE most consistent performer in all of mma. Other than the loss to GSP, he has continued to do his thing, which is dominating everybody else.

In the meantime, Thiago has been doing his thing, and seems to have gotten better at what he was already good at. But, just like Art Jimmerson didn't lose to Royce because he wasn't a good enough boxer, Alves didn't lose to Fitch because his striking wasn't good enough. Despite his improvement he is just not going to be able to control the fight. I don't think Fitch will get anywhere near finishing him this time, but Fitch's game should be able to stop him from mounting much of an offense. When Alves isn't getting taken down or getting back up, he is going to be defending takedowns from the clinch. And I think he will be able to defend it well at first, but I don't think he can handle Fitch's "grind".

When all is said and done, there is no reason to think Fitch won't be able to grind out a decision here. And with that being said , +105 is a STEAL.

MY BET: Jon Fitch(+105) vs Thiago Alves: 3 units to win 3.15 units


Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard

Gray Maynard performed very well since his loss on the Ultimate Fighter, and remains undefeated. Recently he seems like he may have come down with a moderate case of 'boxitis', which caused him to take a split decision over Nate Diaz when he should have been able to solidly control that fight. Now he may have been worried about going to the ground with Diaz, and purposefully kept the fight on the feet. Well, he has just as much to worry about in the ground game of Kenny florian, and much more to worry about in his standup. And while other people seem to be able to only strike OR defend the takedown, Kenny seems to be able to successfully defend the takedown while still mounting a successful offense.

When all is said and done, Maynard has a lot more to worry about than Kenny. He is one of the most well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, has burned through top competition with ease, and is a deal at these odds.

MY BET: Kenny Florian(-135) vs Gray Maynard: 2 units to win 1.48 units


I have a feeling both of these lines will get worse, so jump on it.



-The Wise Guy