Right now I have the following bets:
Chris Leben(+165) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama: .5 units to win .825 units
Kendall Grove(+135) vs Goran Reljic: .5 units to win .675 units
I am going to cover these with a bet to win 1 unit on Lesnar, but I am waiting because his odds are slowly getting better. Right now they are at about -157.
UPDATE: I don't know how often I will be able to check odds over the next few days, so I went ahead and locked in Lesnar at -155.
Brock Lesnar(-155) vs Shane Carwin: 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Total for UFC 116: Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units
LESNAR vs CARWIN: What it comes down to is Carwin is just not very well rounded. He has inhuman punching power, and has been able to use it effectively over and over again. But that is ALL he has. His wrestling is overrated (he tends to bull-rush in and stumble around) and I believe most success in controlling his mostly less-than-stellar opposition is due to his size and strength. Even if I am wrong, his wrestling on paper, and in the ring, doesn't hold a candle to Lesnar's. I have seen nothing to suggest that he will be able to stop Lesnar's take downs.
Carwin's striking, while almost impossibly powerful, is stiff slow, and not technical. I actually believe lesnar has shown better technical striking for the most part. Carwin also takes a lot of hits, and was getting outstruck by Gonzaga and Neil Wain (who) before landing his knockout punches.
basically Carwin HAS to get his patented "knockout within 2 minutes" to win this fight. As long as Lesnar just shoots a double right out of the gate, and drives halfway across the cage a al vintage Koscheck, I think the fight is his. I don't think Carwin's poor defense will let him survive being under lesnar for very long.
Of course carwin as proven to be very good at doing just what he needs to to win this fight, and Lesnar is coming off a long layoff with a hospital stay and surgery, so there are some intangibles.
But the odds are very good, and I will only be risking about 1.5 - 1.7 units, unless the odds change drastically.
LEBEN vs SEXYAMA: The Sexy one I believe will have his hands full with this fight. While I think he has probably better technical striking and is, overall, a more well rounded, technically skilled fighter, I think Leben poses some unique problems for him.
For starters, Akiyama is undersized for the middleweight division. We saw this be somewhat of a problem for him against belcher. Leben also has shown excellent takedown defense, especially lately in his fight against Simpson, so Akiyama will have a difficult time taking it to the ground. Leben will have to watch out for the judo throws though.
I think this fight will play out on the feet, with a fair amount of clinch work. Akiyama will get theh better of the striking exchanges early, but without much damage to leben. after the first round I think the clinch work with the bigger leben, along with the occasional Leben-bomb that gets through, will start to wear on him. I think the 2 and third rounds will go to leben, and he will take a UD.
GROVE vs RELJIC
No real in-depth thoughts behind this one. I just think Kendall has enough to get him to the ground and submit him.
None of these fights are super one sided, but the odds are cheap and I have structured it so I can push in multiple scenarios. As long as I win any 2 I will push or come very close (depending on the Lesnar odds). if lesnar wins I will at least push.
Should be some interesting fights!!
-The Wise Guy
I liek Sexy, Carwin, and Reljic... funny how two people can look at the same set of circumstances and draw opposite conclusions.
ReplyDeleteyeah, its interesting. I see Sexy/leben as a coin flip basically. Akiyama is a more skilled fighter, but I see him having trouble with Leben's physicality and toughness. More of a hunch than anything, really.
ReplyDeleteWith Carwin, like I said the only way for him to win is to get his patented quick KO. Which is totally possible. But I think the 'natural order' of the fight, as you like to say, will be Lesnar taking him down, and carwin is the one who has to make something else happen.
Grove either looks like a genius or a chump. nothing in between. We'll see which one shows up this time.
I wouldn't be betting on any of these if the odds weren't so cheap, and even so these are all small bets. I will only be risking about 2.6 units total, so no big risk.