Early Action

Some bets to get on:

Rousimar Palhares(-215) vs Thomasz Drwal: 4 units to win 1.86 units

Matt Mitrione(+105) vs Kimbo Slice: 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Sam Stout(-195) vs Jeremy Stephens: 3 units to win 1.54 units


- The Wise Guy

UFC 110 Results

Well we were definitely on the wrong side of the line on the Stevenson fight, and sadly dropped 4 units.

Interestingly enough, we got every other fight right in our experiment picks, and gained a notional 4.26 units. Definitely a good start to this experiment. I am interested to see what the results are after a few events. If they stay good I will start actually betting in this manner.

We'll make back the units we lost tonight. We got some good bets coming up so stay tuned.




- The Wise Guy

UFC 110

There have been some last minute changes to this card. Once again a fight we had action on had a change-up as Ben Rothwell became ill and was replaced last minute with Anthony Perosh. Also off the card is Elvis Sinosic, who had an arm injury. His fight was just removed from the undercard. So as of right now the only action I have on this card is:

Joe Stevenson(-280) vs George Sotiropoulos: 4 units to win 1.43 units

The odds have actually improved and Joe Daddy is now only -245, so get your money in if you haven't made this bet yet.

EXPERIMENT:

Below are my picks for my running experiment. Keep in mind these are notional and I didn't actually make these bets. I am just keeping track of what I would bet to see if the system will work. Bet size is 1 unit for every fight, so I will just list my pick and the amount to win.

Cain Velasquez(-122): win .82 units
Wanderlei Silva(-155): win .64 units
Joe Stevenson(-245): win .41 units
Ryan Bader(-165): win .61 units
Krzysztof Soszynki(-200): win .5units
Chris Lytle(-145): win .69 units
CB Dolloway(+200): win 2 units
Mirko Crocop:(-675): PASS
Igor Pokrajac(+123): PASS

BTW I really hope I am wrong with my Velasquez pick. I would LOVE to see the Pride guys go 3-0 on this card.

Anyway, I have been wanting to try this approach for a while so it will be interesting to see how it turns out. The good thing is that with this many bets the you are counting on your overall ability to correctly pick the winner a majority of the time in the long term. The best part is that with a large quantity of small bets your swings are much less dramatic, which is appealing.

I will do this notionally for a few events and if it works I will start doing it with actual bets.

Enjoy the fights!!


-The Wise Guy

Experiment Time

Starting with this card I am going to be running an experiment. I have thought before about what would happen if I tried to pick a winner and bet on almost every fight with a static unit size. So starting with this card I am going to pick notional bets for almost every fight on the cards. I am giving myself 2 passes per card if I want to take them, in case there are fights that I just have no idea, or have never heard of the fighters, etc.

I am not yet going to be placing any actual bets, I am just going to keep track of what the results would be to see if it is a profitable system.

Here are the guidelines I plan on following for the system:
- All bets placed only a day or two before the fights; no earlier.
- Bet size is 1 unit, regardless of the line.
- I can skip a maximum of 2 fights per card. I must bet on all the others.


I will post my picks/bets the day before or the day of the fights. Should be interesting!


-The Wise Guy
-

Arb Bet opportunity and theory

Well we already have an opportunity to arb out of our bet on Rampage/Rashad. We put our bet on Jackson at -122, and as of right now Rashad is +137. I am going to hold off though until much closer to fight time to see what the final odds will be, as it may get even better. I will ponder this fight a little more and decide if I want to take the arb opportunity, but I am just letting you know it is there if you want it.

At the current odds, a bet of 1.536 units on Rashad will give the maximum arbitrage opportunity and deliver .104 units regardless of the outcome of the fight. So if your unit size is 100 bucks, you will win $10.40 no matter who wins.

One thing I have been thinking about with regards to arb bet is the fact that most of the time it is done to give an equal result regardless of outcome. In the above calculations for example, the bets are placed so that the amount won is the same no matter who wins the fight. This is pretty much the standard way to use an arbitrage opportunity.

This is curious though, because we have already determined through our own handicapping that the there is not an equal likelihood of each fighter winning. Meaning, we view Rampage as more likely to win, hence the original bet.

For this reason, it seems more reasonable and profitable for the advantage player to use the arb opportunity simply to eliminate risk, as opposed to guarantee a equal return regardless of outcome.

If you are really an advantage player this should theoretically be more profitable in the long run (if you are not an advantage player you will lose money over the long term regardless).

To further explain, take the above example again. If we are a good handicapper, and view Rampage as more likely to win, why would we set up our arb opportunity to favor each outcome equally? it makes much more sense to structure the bet sizes so that if Rashad wins you just push. You don't win anything, but you don't lose anything either. That maximizes the profit for the outcome that we have already decided is more likely, but it eliminates any risk.

So for this fight you would bet 1.46 units on Rashad at the current odds. This would give you .18 units ($18 assuming a $100 unit) if Rampage wins, and you would push if Rashad wins. May not seem like much better at first, but it is giving you about 80% more profit if Rampage wins (which we had already decided is more likely anyway)

Obviously you can structure the arb bet to distribute the guaranteed profits however you wish between the two outcomes, based on how likely you view each.

Something to think about.



-The Wise Guy

Anderson Silva, BJ Penn, and Kenny Florian

The lines are open for Anderson silva, BJ Penn, and Kenny Florian.

I expect all of them to win their fights, but the odds are pretty high (-575, -700, and -310, respectively)

Too high for Anderson, hopefully it will come down. No bet for now. Too high to bother on BJ Penn too, although it does seem like free money. This is pretty much as close to a lock as you can get. The problem is you just have to risk so much for so little.

Kenny florian is worth a bet, as I think he will win. I was going to go 3 and 3 (units) on Florian and Roy Nelson, but I decided to instead just put it all on Nelson. The odds are basically the same (I actually got Nelson @ -295) and I feel Nelson is much more likely to win. I think Florian will win too, I just think it is possible for him to lose this fight. I don't see how it is possible for Roy to lose his fight, barring some freak injury or something.

So for now no bet on any of these 3 fighters. I am hopeful that the Silva line may come down. I don't think BJ or Florian will though. Keep watching just in case though.



-The Wise guy

Early Action

Just put down 2 bets:

Roy Nelson (-295) vs Stefan Struve: 6 units to win 2.03 units

Quinton Jackson(-122) vs Rashad Evans: 2 units to win 1.64 units

The line on Crocop is down to -135. Bummer, wished I'd waited.



-The Wise Guy

Rumble vs Doomsday - OFF

So the Anthony Johnson vs John Howard fight has been canceled due to a shoulder injury on the part of johnson. This isn't the first time this matchup has been postponed. Sadly this is a fight that we were betting on, so we lose that action.

I'm not sure why, but it seems like an inordinate amount of the fights that get canceled are fights that I have action on. It is hard to find solid bets and I don't put money on very many fights so I don't like to see them called off. I will try to find a replacement bet but I'm not going to force anything.

There are a couple of fights I am watching in that card though, so I am hopeful. I am waiting for the odds on:

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello: Kongo will be a big favorite, but there is no way he loses this fight, so hopefully the odds will be under control so we can put some money on it.

Mike Pierce vs Rob Kimmons: Pierce has looked like a powerhouse in his first couple of fights in the UFC and almost stole a decision from #2 welterweight in the world, Jon Fitch. His relative obscurity should help keep the line low to begin though so I am hopeful he won't open as a massive favorite.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga: I have mentioned this fight before, and as long as the odds don't get worse I will be placing a unit on Gonzaga. The JDS Hype is out of control and there is no reason he should be that big of a favorite. I am waiting to see if maybe the line may actually get better for Gonzaga. I plan on taking him for anything better than +200, but I am waiting til a little closer to fight time.


So while we lost the opportunity on one bet there are still some promising fights on this card. Keep your eyes peeled for the lines.



- The Wise Guy

UFC 112 - Maia vs Anderson Silva

For those of you who don't know, Demian Maia has been announced as the replacement for Vitor Belfort against Anderson Silva. Obviously Maia isn't the real front-runner for a title shot in a normal situation, but it is still an intriguing matchup. My initial instinct is that Anderson would blow him out of the water. Maia is decent at takedowns, (and even managed to takedown and submit chael sonnen, who is a much better wrestler than Silva) but his approach is not great. He just sort of charges in. Nate Marquardt exposed that flaw when he fought Maia, and although he is great on the feet he is no Anderson Silva.

The interesting thing is that Maia has a real chance at submitting anderson on the ground. So even though he will likely have a harder time getting it to the ground than somebody like Henderson, Sonnen, etc, he doesn't necessarily have to do it for 5 rounds like they would. Once on the ground he has a legit chance at getting the finish. I don't think anybody else at middle weight really does.

Anderson is a black belt, but he isn't on the level of Maia. It does give me pause that he wasn't able to submit Miller inside of 3 rounds though.

All together an interesting match-up. I still expect a rather easy victory for Anderson though, simply because I feel like Maia will get picked apart trying to get inside for the TD.

I will be looking for decent odds on Silva to hopefully place a bet (sorry Scientist), but he may be too big a favorite.


UPDATE:

This thread on Sherdog.com shows a glimpse of the public perception of this fight. If a large quantity of people really think this fight is anywhere near 50/50 then we may get a better line then I thought. So like I said in the comments, if the line opens with Silva as a very large favorite, give it a day or two because a lot of money may come in on Maia and give us a better line on Silva.

-The Wise Guy

Lines to watch - with analysis

Here are some upcoming fights that I am waiting to see the lines for. I have highlighted the fighter that could be worth a bet depending on how the lines open (In some of the match-ups both fighters are highlighted because either one could have value depending on the line. (which could be true of every fight I guess).

Fedor Emelianenko vs Fabricio Werdum
I think Fedor will open as a fairly big favorite here, but there could still be some value here because there is almost no way for Werdum to win this fight. Fedor has better, faster, more powerful stand-up, will control where the fight goes, and can stay out of submission trouble when on the ground. This will look a lot like his fights with Nogueira except he will probably get the TKO stoppage.


Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields
Shields is an ADCC level grappler, but is generally pretty crappy on the feet. At least compared to the level of opposition he should be facing. His wrestling is good but he is up against one of the best wrestlers in MMA, who also happens to have devastating standup. Dan can and has been submitted, so Shields can definitely threaten him there, but he has gotten past a lot of talented submission artists (like Palhares) and this fight probably won't hit the ground unless Dan wants it to. I see Shields taking a beating on the feet. and probably getting finished.


Gegard Mousasi vs King Mo Lawal
I have no idea where the line on this fight will open, but I see Mousasi winning this fight by submission. I predict He will probably be too big a favorite to put a bet on it though, but keep an eye out because with King Mo's overwhelming performances fresh in people's minds, he might come in overvalued against the much more reserved yet equally as dangerous (and more well-rounded) Mousasi.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
These two have already met once, with Fitch emerging as the victor. Fitch is one of the most consistent performers in the division, if not all of MMA. These factors, as well as Alves' recent beating at the hands of GSP, may combine to give us favorable odds on him in this fight. While Fitch has been top tier for a long time, he hasn't markedly improved since the last Alves fight. Thiago however, has seemed to improve quite a bit and has gotten even better with his takedown defense (which works to beat Fitch's biggest weapon). Even GSP had trouble holding Alves down, and Fitch isn't as good in the standup department as GSP is either. All of this seems to add up to a probable win for Thiago Alves, so watch out for a favorable line.

Josh Koscheck vs Paul Daley
Depending on the line on this fight either fighter could be worth a bet. If Koscheck plays it smart he should be able to win this fight fairly easily. Daley's ground skills are such that Koscheck will be able to take him down at will and keep him there as long as he wants. On the other hand, Koscheck has recently shown a penchant for trying out the standup game. He is getting pretty good too, but it has cost him, with loss to Paulo Thiago (and even Hazelett knocked him down). If he tries to stand with Daley he will get knocked out, I'm sure of it. So I am curious to see what the line is, and would consider a bet on either fighter based on the lines. I predict close lines and a bet on Koscheck though.

BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar
Simply put, there is no way for Frankie Edgar to win this fight. Before the last couple of BJ Penn's fights, I may have said Edgar may be able to outwork him in the later rounds, but that doesn't even seem possible now. Even cardio kings like Florian, Stevenson, and Diego Sanchez couldn't get Penn breathing hard. This will be a blowout. I just hope the odds aren't too crazy so I can place a bet on Penn.


Mike Brown vs Manny Gamburyan
Manny Gamburyan seems to be a smaller, less-technical, version of Mike Brown. I think mike brown has better stand-up, more power, and better wrestling. I think he will be able to control the pace wherever the fight goes, and stay out of submission trouble. I see him wearing Manny down and getting the unanimous decision. He will probably be a large favorite, but we will check out the line when it opens and make the decision then.



-The Wise Guy

UFC 110

Crocop vs rothwell: I have been looking at this fight long and hard, and I finally decided to put a unit on it. There is no reason Crocop should be this small of a favorite against Rothwell. Rothwell really doesn't have anything for him on paper. The problem is Crocop has fought abysmally lately, and shown no desire or aggressiveness. Despite this he still did OK against JDS even though he only threw like 30 strikes the entire fight. So there is a chance CC could flake and get taken down a lot or leaned on against the fence and donk off a decision, but I think with those possibilities included he still has value at -150. I am being cautious though and only putting down 1 unit.

So my bets so far for UFC 110 are:

Mirko Crocop(-150) vs Ben Rothwell: 1 unit to win .66 units
Joe Stevenson(-280) vs George Sotiropoulos: 4 units to win 1.43 units

we'll see how the rest of the lines look when they come out. That's all for now.


-The Wise Guy

UFC 109 Results

Well we went 2-1 in our bets, and ended up the night down about .1 units. Mac Danzig and Couture both won, but Surprisingly Marquardt lost a decision. I really wish now that we had taken the Arb opportunity on that bet. It would have guaranteed only about .1 units (for that particular bet) but overall we would have been up about 3 units for the event as a whole, instead of down .1 units. Big difference.

We have some bets coming up and will be back to our winning ways soon enough.




- The Wise Guy

UFC 109 update - Mac Danzig

The rest of the lines have opened for UFC 109. I already mentioned the Danzig/Bucholz fight, and the Line opened with Mac at -300, so we will be taking him for 4 units. Jump on this now because I predict he will be closer to -400 by fight time.

None of the other lines really jump out at me. If anything changes I will post about it.

All my current bets for UFC 109:

Nate Marquardt(-275) vs Chael Sonnen: 3 units to win 1.09 units
Mac Danzig(-300) vs Justin Buchholz: 4 units to win 1.33 units
Randy Couture(-385) vs Mark Coleman: 6 units to win 1.56 units

with Chael Sonnen now at +315 you can arb out of that one if you want and guarantee yourself a fraction of a unit. I have decided not to in this case, because I am confident in the outcome.


-The Wise Guy

Lines to watch

There are several fights coming up in future events that I suspect could have some good value. Watch for these lines because we may jump on them if they open at good deals:

Justin Bucholz vs Mac Danzig
Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello
Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek
Rousimar Palhares vs Tomasz Drwal
Forrest Griffin vs Little Nog

I am very confident in the highlighted fighters to win these matchups, and am hopeful for decent odds. So keep checking back because if the lines open and are good, you will want to get on it before they change.

I will likely go into the fights in more depth in the future, but I just wanted to post a heads up of lines to watch for.



-The Wise guy