For those of you who don't know, Demian Maia has been announced as the replacement for Vitor Belfort against Anderson Silva. Obviously Maia isn't the real front-runner for a title shot in a normal situation, but it is still an intriguing matchup. My initial instinct is that Anderson would blow him out of the water. Maia is decent at takedowns, (and even managed to takedown and submit chael sonnen, who is a much better wrestler than Silva) but his approach is not great. He just sort of charges in. Nate Marquardt exposed that flaw when he fought Maia, and although he is great on the feet he is no Anderson Silva.
The interesting thing is that Maia has a real chance at submitting anderson on the ground. So even though he will likely have a harder time getting it to the ground than somebody like Henderson, Sonnen, etc, he doesn't necessarily have to do it for 5 rounds like they would. Once on the ground he has a legit chance at getting the finish. I don't think anybody else at middle weight really does.
Anderson is a black belt, but he isn't on the level of Maia. It does give me pause that he wasn't able to submit Miller inside of 3 rounds though.
All together an interesting match-up. I still expect a rather easy victory for Anderson though, simply because I feel like Maia will get picked apart trying to get inside for the TD.
I will be looking for decent odds on Silva to hopefully place a bet (sorry Scientist), but he may be too big a favorite.
UPDATE:
This thread on Sherdog.com shows a glimpse of the public perception of this fight. If a large quantity of people really think this fight is anywhere near 50/50 then we may get a better line then I thought. So like I said in the comments, if the line opens with Silva as a very large favorite, give it a day or two because a lot of money may come in on Maia and give us a better line on Silva.
-The Wise Guy
I'm a Maia fan too, but I really don't see any way he can win this fight. Silva is just flat out too fast for Maia. As great as Maia is, it is all BJJ.
ReplyDeleteIf he tries to get Silva to the ground, I don't think he is quick enough and that he will eat a ton of shots on the way in. If he doesn't get it to the ground, I could see it being like the Leites fight. It feels strange to say that I can see Maia getting embarrassed, but how does he have a shot in this fight at all?
I would almost bet on Silva all the way up to -500, but we can hope that he comes in at much lower than that. Even though I don't see any way Silva can lose the fight, there is no value to me betting on a fighter at -500.
yeah I assume he will open north of -400, but if he doesn't I will definitely put a few units on him. There are quite a few Maia fans out there though so if Silva opens at -450 or something the line may actually come down a little before going back up. We'll see
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