There have been some last minute changes to this card. Once again a fight we had action on had a change-up as Ben Rothwell became ill and was replaced last minute with Anthony Perosh. Also off the card is Elvis Sinosic, who had an arm injury. His fight was just removed from the undercard. So as of right now the only action I have on this card is:
Joe Stevenson(-280) vs George Sotiropoulos: 4 units to win 1.43 units
The odds have actually improved and Joe Daddy is now only -245, so get your money in if you haven't made this bet yet.
EXPERIMENT:
Below are my picks for my running experiment. Keep in mind these are notional and I didn't actually make these bets. I am just keeping track of what I would bet to see if the system will work. Bet size is 1 unit for every fight, so I will just list my pick and the amount to win.
Cain Velasquez(-122): win .82 units
Wanderlei Silva(-155): win .64 units
Joe Stevenson(-245): win .41 units
Ryan Bader(-165): win .61 units
Krzysztof Soszynki(-200): win .5units
Chris Lytle(-145): win .69 units
CB Dolloway(+200): win 2 units
Mirko Crocop:(-675): PASS
Igor Pokrajac(+123): PASS
BTW I really hope I am wrong with my Velasquez pick. I would LOVE to see the Pride guys go 3-0 on this card.
Anyway, I have been wanting to try this approach for a while so it will be interesting to see how it turns out. The good thing is that with this many bets the you are counting on your overall ability to correctly pick the winner a majority of the time in the long term. The best part is that with a large quantity of small bets your swings are much less dramatic, which is appealing.
I will do this notionally for a few events and if it works I will start doing it with actual bets.
Enjoy the fights!!
-The Wise Guy
I am going to play along if it is ok. I will always bet to win 1 unit.
ReplyDeleteCain- 1.25 to win 1
Bisping- .8 to win 1
Stevenson- 2.45 to win 1
Bader- 1.55 to win 1
Soszynski- 2.0 to win 1
C.B. - .5 to win 1
Cro Cop- ?
Te Huna- 1.55 to win 1
forgot one
ReplyDeleteFoster- .8 to win 1
cool. It will be interesting to see how these strategies plays out. That is another one I have thought about trying(always bet to win 1 unit)
ReplyDeleteOdds on most of these fights are fairly close, so we won't have to get too many right to come out ahead. The problem is there is a reason the odds are close: A lot of these fights are hard to pick!
I actually did this (just pretend though) for a couple of events before, and came out quite a bit better than my usual method (of course I had more at risk too). I did it for the TUF 10 finale. I had a bunch of big underdogs that helped me there. On TUF finales, just bet the underdogs.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I am interested to see how it will go too.