The lines are open for Anderson silva, BJ Penn, and Kenny Florian.
I expect all of them to win their fights, but the odds are pretty high (-575, -700, and -310, respectively)
Too high for Anderson, hopefully it will come down. No bet for now. Too high to bother on BJ Penn too, although it does seem like free money. This is pretty much as close to a lock as you can get. The problem is you just have to risk so much for so little.
Kenny florian is worth a bet, as I think he will win. I was going to go 3 and 3 (units) on Florian and Roy Nelson, but I decided to instead just put it all on Nelson. The odds are basically the same (I actually got Nelson @ -295) and I feel Nelson is much more likely to win. I think Florian will win too, I just think it is possible for him to lose this fight. I don't see how it is possible for Roy to lose his fight, barring some freak injury or something.
So for now no bet on any of these 3 fighters. I am hopeful that the Silva line may come down. I don't think BJ or Florian will though. Keep watching just in case though.
-The Wise guy
I think Maia has value. He is up to +425... Maybe it is the fanboy in me, but I really think he has a very good chance to win here.
ReplyDeleteYeah he is getting in the range where I think he may have value as well.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about this fight is, it will likely end quickly and make the winner look like a destroyer of worlds, no matter who wins.
I can envision Maia catching a beautiful 1st round sub, and I can certainly see Silva tearing him apart on the feet and downright embarrassing him.
The one thing I can't see is a 4-5 round back and forth battle. Neither of them have the style for that. once either of them gains a significant advantage the fight will probably be over fairly quickly.
I have to give a larger advantage to Silva, but he is such a large favorite it's just not worth it at this point, especially since I can't decide exactly how I think the fight will play out.
I would take Silva at anything under -425.
I see it much closer than that. I agree, there is a very good possibility that Silva just decimates him before Maia has a chance to do anything. But so far, everyone who has tried to get Silva down (Lutter, Marquart, Hendo, Leites, and I think even Franklin) has been able to do it. Maia has very good takedowns. I might be insane, but I put Silva @ like -225. I think Maia can win this.
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