Here are some upcoming fights that I am waiting to see the lines for. I have highlighted the fighter that could be worth a bet depending on how the lines open (In some of the match-ups both fighters are highlighted because either one could have value depending on the line. (which could be true of every fight I guess).
Fedor Emelianenko vs Fabricio Werdum
I think Fedor will open as a fairly big favorite here, but there could still be some value here because there is almost no way for Werdum to win this fight. Fedor has better, faster, more powerful stand-up, will control where the fight goes, and can stay out of submission trouble when on the ground. This will look a lot like his fights with Nogueira except he will probably get the TKO stoppage.
Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields
Shields is an ADCC level grappler, but is generally pretty crappy on the feet. At least compared to the level of opposition he should be facing. His wrestling is good but he is up against one of the best wrestlers in MMA, who also happens to have devastating standup. Dan can and has been submitted, so Shields can definitely threaten him there, but he has gotten past a lot of talented submission artists (like Palhares) and this fight probably won't hit the ground unless Dan wants it to. I see Shields taking a beating on the feet. and probably getting finished.
Gegard Mousasi vs King Mo Lawal
I have no idea where the line on this fight will open, but I see Mousasi winning this fight by submission. I predict He will probably be too big a favorite to put a bet on it though, but keep an eye out because with King Mo's overwhelming performances fresh in people's minds, he might come in overvalued against the much more reserved yet equally as dangerous (and more well-rounded) Mousasi.
Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
These two have already met once, with Fitch emerging as the victor. Fitch is one of the most consistent performers in the division, if not all of MMA. These factors, as well as Alves' recent beating at the hands of GSP, may combine to give us favorable odds on him in this fight. While Fitch has been top tier for a long time, he hasn't markedly improved since the last Alves fight. Thiago however, has seemed to improve quite a bit and has gotten even better with his takedown defense (which works to beat Fitch's biggest weapon). Even GSP had trouble holding Alves down, and Fitch isn't as good in the standup department as GSP is either. All of this seems to add up to a probable win for Thiago Alves, so watch out for a favorable line.
Josh Koscheck vs Paul Daley
Depending on the line on this fight either fighter could be worth a bet. If Koscheck plays it smart he should be able to win this fight fairly easily. Daley's ground skills are such that Koscheck will be able to take him down at will and keep him there as long as he wants. On the other hand, Koscheck has recently shown a penchant for trying out the standup game. He is getting pretty good too, but it has cost him, with loss to Paulo Thiago (and even Hazelett knocked him down). If he tries to stand with Daley he will get knocked out, I'm sure of it. So I am curious to see what the line is, and would consider a bet on either fighter based on the lines. I predict close lines and a bet on Koscheck though.
BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar
Simply put, there is no way for Frankie Edgar to win this fight. Before the last couple of BJ Penn's fights, I may have said Edgar may be able to outwork him in the later rounds, but that doesn't even seem possible now. Even cardio kings like Florian, Stevenson, and Diego Sanchez couldn't get Penn breathing hard. This will be a blowout. I just hope the odds aren't too crazy so I can place a bet on Penn.
Mike Brown vs Manny Gamburyan
Manny Gamburyan seems to be a smaller, less-technical, version of Mike Brown. I think mike brown has better stand-up, more power, and better wrestling. I think he will be able to control the pace wherever the fight goes, and stay out of submission trouble. I see him wearing Manny down and getting the unanimous decision. He will probably be a large favorite, but we will check out the line when it opens and make the decision then.
-The Wise Guy
I like all of those picks. I am one of the few people that think Werdum could give Fedor problems though. I know no one wants to admit that Fedor can be beat, but honestly, he was already beaten by Arona. Werdum is also a top oriented bjj guy (though his TD's are not as strong as Arona's). Werdum's striking looked pretty good for a round against Giant Silva. I don't know. I am a bjj fan boy though, so maybe I have too much confidence that Werdum will beat him up on the ground.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling Jake Shields is going to come out with a wild gameplan for Dan. He has to know what a disadvantage he is at in this fight.
Man I like BJJ players too, and I train in grappling, but I just don't think werdum has the overall gameplan to beat Fedor.
ReplyDeleteArona is much better at the wrestling/positional aspect of grappling than Werdum, at least in MMA.
Do you think Werdum is markedly better than Nogueira in any area?
I dunno about shields. I haven't seen his use a 'gameplan' in any of his fights. He just plays his game, which is always the same. His standup is just not good, and he tends to get discouraged if things don't go well in the first round or so. I honestly see him being finished by Dan.
ReplyDeleteI do think Werdum has better top control that Nog. Fedor is really not that great of a grappler, at least fundamentally. I have seen him in a lot of bad spots, had his back taken several times, and I think Mark Hunt put him in side control. BUt he has great finishing skills, and he always finds a way out.
ReplyDeleteI mean I don't think Werdum is the favorite or anything. But I do give him a better chance than most people give him.
You are right about Hendo/Shields... its one of those fights that it is so obvious how it will play out, that I have to think something will go awry. Shields might be able to ground him. But you are right, Hendo is going to KO him.