Because of internet limitations I didn't actually get to place my real bets, which pissed me off. As mentioned in the last post I was gonna bet to win 1 unit on Kongo, and put .5 on Gonzaga, so I would have been up .5 units. Too bad.
As far as my experiment picks:
Jon Jones vs Brandon Vera: +.41 units
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Junior Dos Santos: -1 unit
Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello: +.28 units
James Irvin vs Allesio Sakara: -1 unit
Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty: +.27 units
Elliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko: -1 unit
Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins: PASS
John Howard vs Daniel Roberts: PASS
Brendan Schuab vs Chase Gormley: +.33 units
Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino: +.18 units
Jason Brilz vs Eric Schafer: +.64 units
Which left me -.89 units for the experiment.
It should also be noted that I only chose Gonzaga because I thought he was undervalued. I didn't actually think he would win, and on the UFC fantasy game I picked JDS and got 8/10 fights correct. Still only got 128 out of 16405 though. Never can get that top 20. So elusive.
I haven't calculated it, but I think I would have done better if I did the bet to win 1 unit, instead of betting 1 on every fight.
ReplyDelete^ yeah you definately would have doen better. All 3 of your losses were underdogs.
ReplyDeleteYou won 7, so +7u... you would have lost only like 2.2 units, you would have had a very good result. OF course you would have had 4 units at risk on Kongo and 3.5 on Pierce. So you would have a lot more at risk.
Yeah i thought about the "bet x units" Strategy vs the "bet to win X units". You have to risk less on favorites, but you win less too. You have to lose more on underdogs, but you win more too, so I'm not sure mathematically how differently it would work out over the long term.
ReplyDeleteyeah it seems like with the "bet 1 unit" strategy there is less variance. It is harder to turn in big profits, as you would have to get almost every fight right. But it is also harder to lose a lot. To lose like 4 units you would have to get more than half the fights wrong. Whereas with the other way you could lose end up down 4 or 5 units by getting like 2 fights wrong. I will stick with this way for now and see how it turns out. It is just notional right now anyway, and I am up about 3 units over 2 events I think.
ReplyDeleteI actually only won 6. I picked a winner in the Howard fight but it was a pass.
ReplyDeleteI did some quick calculations, over the last 2 events I would be +3.37 units with the "bet 1" system, and +7.35 units with the "bet to win 1" system. Either way is good, but that is quite a difference.
I have yet to lose on any big favorites though (other than stevenson), and that will affect the "bet to win 1" system a lot more.
I will keep this up for a few more events and then may actually switch to this method as my main betting method.
If you are looking to betanywhere there is value, you almost have to bet to win 1. On dogs, you would be risking a full unit which is out of proportion with your other bets.
ReplyDeleteSo if you always bet 1 unit, it shoudl scare you away from value bets on dogs.