Strikeforce has quite a few intriguing matchups in the coming months. Among them:
Gilbert Melendez vs Shinya Aoki
While I like watching Aoki fight, I have never understood why he is continually ranked so highly in the top ten. I think he would have trouble with, and lose to, any of the strong wrestlers with good submission defense. Certainly BJ Penn, Florian, Sean Sherk, and the like would beat him easily in my opinion. I also feel he would lose to the likes of Frankie Edgar, Tyson Griffin, Miller, Diego Sanchez, etc. I feel that Melendez falls into this category, and I think he will win. Lets see where the line opens.
Gegard Mousasi vs King Mo Lawal
I have mentioned this fight before, and now it is officially confirmed. My analysis remains unchanged. I see Gegard taking this fight by submission.
Alistair Overeem vs Brett Rogers
Interesting fight here. I have to give the edge to Overeem he is just a much more technical striker. Overeem has to have an edge in what is sure to be a standup fight. The real line I want to see on this fight is the odds that Overeem passes his drug tests. Did I say that?
Andrei Arlovski vs Junior Silva
Arlovski is finally coming back to MMA after a prolonged absence. In Arlovski's last couple of fights a glass chin has sabotaged what would otherwise be one of the most dangerous fighters in the world. He is on of the fastest, most well rounded heavyweights competing today, and his fight with Fedor, among others, shows that he would be an easy top 5 HW if his chin didn't fail him. Even in his recent losses he never really got over-matched, just knocked out.
While he is better technically than silva in pretty much every area, his fragile chin and lengthy lay-off make this a much more difficult fight to handicap. As of right now Arlovski is my pick to win, but I would probably need pretty good odds to bet him here.
Who doesn't love free MMA?
-The Wise Guy
A) Strikeforce is getting pretty awesome.
ReplyDeleteB) I like all your picks here, as picks. As bets, I will only bet Melendez as a decent dog... and I probably will not bet on Mousasi at all. I could see Mo winning that one. Mousasi has been impressive, but I think his hype is a little out of whack with his reality. He has beaten some tough guys for sure... but they are all tough inconsistent guys (except Jacare, who I would take in the rematch). Babalu, Kang, Sok, they are all terribly inconsistent and all on the downside of their careers. In my opinion, his best win is Babalu... but he has faded pretty hard in the last few years.
I agree. although I would take melendez at anything better than like -150. I would probably need similar odds on Mousasi.
ReplyDeleteI don't see how rogers beats Overeem, so I would take him up to like -280, -300
Arlovski, I dunno. Even though I think he will win I will probably only bet him if he opens as a dog.
I like Overeem and AA quite a bit. AA could be in trouble if Silva drags him down to the mat, which I think he will be unable to do. AA has some of the best TD defense at HW. His ground game is pretty overrated though. There is a video floating around on youtube of Arlovski rolling with Marcelo Garcia. Marcelo tools hims pretty hard, even with the 100 pound weight advantage.
ReplyDeleteMarcelo is on another level though. He beat Gonzaga in ADCC open weight, and you know he is an excellent grappler.
ReplyDeleteArlovski almost never ends up on bottom.
Agreed. It is still fun to watch though.
ReplyDeleteDid you get my invite? I sent it again.
True, about AA never ending up on bottom, but Roy did put him on his back and into side control (and then subsequently got massively hosed by the ref stand up). BUt AA was not even close to escaping, he got easily controlled for several minutes. Had the ref not saved him, that fight could have been very different.
ReplyDeleteTrue, I forgot about the nelson fight.
ReplyDeletehaven't posted before but wanted do follow your blog and used to follow mmascientist as well. just wanted to share my thoughts..
ReplyDeletethink mousasi will be well prepared for king mo after working on his tdd with gsp. gegard, imo, has much better technical striking than mo's over the top style.
also, i don't see how big foot stands any chance with AA. antonio silva looked horribly slow and awkward against werdum and should be easily picked apart by arlovski, who i think is one of the premier strikers all time at HW.
really looking forward to the melendez vs. aoki match. i can't seem to envision the matchup playing out though. think it could go in quite a few directions, although i can't imagine aoki being content standing with him.
and of course, overreem/rogers... i'd be surprised if it even happened. and i don't understand how strikeforce can think their hw belt is relevant. it hasn't been on the table in over two years and the champ is being put up against a guy who was just knocked out by a 'contender', albeit the best contender in hw history.
as a side note, have many ppl flocked over to this blog since the scientist shut his down? the site he recommended, investwithsports, seems good but inconsistent.
looking forward to the discussion on this site in the future and particularly how your 'make a pick on every fight for the card' attempt works out.
Thanks, Gmuash. Yeah I have seen a bit of a spike in traffic since the scientist's blog went down.
ReplyDeleteYeah I pretty much agree with what you said.
I think Aoki will be forced to keep it standing. Who knows though, it is a 5 rounder.
yeah, the aoki/melendez matchup has me more and more intrigued everytime i think about it. especially considering the implications it could have on strikeforce if it loses another one of its belts to a predominantly overseas fighter. The HW belt is already a joke. I'd hate to see the LW belt follow the same path but am super excited about these two upcoming FREE shows. And I think the top end fights on the two strikeforce cards match up favorably with the main cards offered at any of the recent ufc events.
ReplyDeleteI would be shocked if Overeem agreed to fight in the U.S. He is so jacked on who-knows-what that his urine would probably burn a hole in the test tube.
ReplyDeleteI agree than AA will win as long as it stays upright, which it should, but I think it is closer than you think. Even if it hits the ground, AA can probably survive long enough to get the standup.
Werdum's striking has improved a lot since he fought Arlovski. If you recall that fight Arloviski was having a lot of trouble with Werdum on his feet. Silva looks to have more power that Werdum and was winning the striking exchanges until he gassed. AA's striking has improved as well, but his chin has failed him, so it sort of balances out.
Hey Chaos,
ReplyDeletecould you tell the scientist to invite me to his blog so I could read it? What happened? It's invite only now?
Joe,
ReplyDeleteyou were one of the readers (svino is another one) I was really sad to lose because I did not have contact info for you.
If you give me you email I will invite you.
You can email it to me @ mma_scientist@hotmail.com