Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): -2.6 units
Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): +2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): +1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .+1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): +1 unit
Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555): PASSRafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): +1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .+1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): +1 unit
Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): +1 unit
Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): +1 unitCharlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS
Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASSTotal: +5.43 units
8-3 on my picks, 7-1 on my bets.
The difference between my picks and my bets illustrates why I implemented the "pass" option. Correctly choosing which fights to pass on will make a huge difference in the long term. I am probably going to say I can pass on no more than 3 on an 11-fight card, and 2 on cards that have 10 fights or less.
This time I think picked the right fights to pass on. I went 1-2 on the fights I passed. Altogether AWESOME results! I'm obviously very pleased.
Pearson: great footwork and head movement, and FAST
Siver: Showed some decent grappling and good chin. Not a bad showing just came up short.
Less clinch-work in this fight than I would have expected.
Whatever the opposite of a bobblehead doll is, that's what Quarry is. He never moves his head. I knew he was over-valued here and I paid for it. I still thought he would win, but I should have known better than to take him at those odds.
In the fights that aired, nothing else really deviated from how I thought it would go. I'll try to check out the ones I missed later.
I didn't get to submit my UFC Fantasy game picks in time, so I don't have any results for that.
-The Wise guy
Hey General, congrats on a solid night! Been following your blog for a while, and finally decided - if it's alright - to join in the very knowledgable discussion held here (after taking some time off from mma due to a ferocious beating taken at super bowl.)
ReplyDeleteWent 4-0 myself tonight, for +4.9 units:)
Hell yeah man, join the party!
ReplyDeleteNice work, too. It seems like this event went well for a lot of us.
What were your bets?
I would have cleared 1.47u... I am not nearly as good at this method... but I am consistently modestly winning, and there is something to be said for that.
ReplyDeleteIt also seems like it takes some of the stress away from watching the fights, because no one fight makes or breaks you.
In other news:
"Whatever the opposite of a bobblehead doll is, that's what Quarry is." Genius.
you know I was just going to write something about that; I had envisioned before the card started that it would be extra tense because I had money on almost every fight, but like you said it turned out to be the exact opposite because no one fight could make or break you. And once I got past a certain few fights I knew I was almost sure to break even.
ReplyDeleteFlorian, Nelson, Tibau, and Rivera. Actually went +6.0u, after taking into account a bet on Florian when the line opened.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, the Rivera bet was essentially a gamble: at +220 he definitely had value, but the fight itself typified the type of fights I hate to bet on, wouldn't have pulled the trigger if I didn' think the first three were fairly solid locks.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete