There are 4 fights on this card with significant underdogs (better than +350).
These fights and their current odds are:
BJ Penn(-700) vs Frankie Edgar(+500)
Matt Hughes(-455) vs Renzo Gracie(+355)
Anderson Silva(-700) vs Demian Maia(+500)
Phil Davis(-470) vs Alexander Gustafsson(+370)
Now I have accepted a BJ Penn victory as a foregone conclusion, so ignore that fight for now. But I have been thinking about the other three fights. With my current betting method, to bet on all the favorites would require risking 16.25 units to win just 3. If I lose even one of these bets I would be down at the least 2.55 units, and as much as 5. A break-even card would be a blessing at that point. If I lose more than one... well, the card is a loser for sure. And potentially a BIG loser.
So what's the alternative? With the "bet to win 1" system I could bet on the dogs in all 3 fights for less than a single unit. .75 to be exact. That means that even if I lose all three (the most likely scenario) I am only down .75 units and winning only one other fight puts me ahead .25 units. Of course one of the dogs could win too, covering the bets on all three and then some.
I haven't made my bets yet for this card, so let me know what you guys think.
-The Wise Guy
I don't think any of the favorites has value left in the lines. So under your system, I think you have to take the dog or pass.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I would take Maia and pass on the other 3, because they are all going to lose. You might be able to justify a bet on Gustaffson, but Renzo and Edgar are going to lose.
I could see Edgar winning under a pretty narrow set of circumstances, he is the best technical boxer AND has the best takedowns of anyone BJ has faced at LW. So he does pose more of a threat than he is being given credit for... but he will most likely get submitted pretty easily on the ground... So he has to win on his feet, which is not really out of the question- but not very likely.
I actually placed a small bet on Maia two days ago. I think most of the other favorties are a lock, but Davis chin has never been tested and Gustafsson has good standup so you figure he should get at least a couple of shots during the fight to rock him. Until Davis grounds him and taps him or gets the UD.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't place a bet on any of the underdogs personally, though a bet on Maia can certainly be justified.
ReplyDeleteI think, as far as the lines that are out, a bet on Munoz seems fairly solid (sorry this is off topic, but I just saw that you haven't placed a bet on the card). Munoz's training at Black House, I hear, so the guys there likely will have prepared him to stay out of Grove's submissions when he takes Grove down.
man, I dunno, I have actually been leaning toward Grove in this fight. As somebody mentioned on the Scientist's site, I see this being a lot like grove/rosholt. Grove actually does have really good submissions, and I think Munoz is still green in that area. I should know this, but this fight must be at 185, and is it Munoz's first at that weight? that can play a factor too.
ReplyDeleteGrove damn near triangle/armbarred Almeida. He is pretty good off his back.
ReplyDeleteI had not seen that fight before betting Rosholt back in Novemeber, but had I known that Grove was so close to subbing Almeida, I definately would not have bet Rosholt. The same thing applies to Munoz for me.
Munoz beat Ryan Jensen at 185 already, so presumably the cut wouldn't be a problem for him. I actually saw the Almeida fight live, and thereafter I knew Grove's submission was no joke. But, I think Munoz should be aware of that as well, and I'm hoping he basically lay his way to a win (Munoz, by the way, recently got his purple belt from Nog - hopefully that means enough knowledge to not get caught by those giraffe legs of Grove.)
ReplyDeleteYeah very hard fight to call, but I feel grove takes it. I would not bet this fight normally, but with the current system I am trying out I am betting on almost every fight so I have to pick a winner. I'm pretty sure I'm taking grove in this one.
ReplyDeleteI'm brazilian, and betting ain't even allowed down here, so I can only use two online bookmakers... you guess I can't get the best odds around. I placed a bet 3 weeks ago on GSP, MirVSCarwin won't go the distance, BJ, Silva, Hughes. I've never made a parlay this big, but I am THAT confident on the favorites for UFC 112. Bet 5 units to win 11 (5 + 6). I really can't understand anyone betting Maia or Edgar. Maia at least have the grappler's chance, but that doesnt mean much in todays mma.
ReplyDeleteI can't see a bet on edgar. He is not better at any single facet of the game. And he is smaller.
ReplyDeleteA bet on Maia is justifiable at the current odds. Everyone who wanted to get Silva down has at some point, so we can assume they will be on the ground during this fight, even if only for a little bit. And while maia doesn't have as big an advantage on the floor as Silva does standing, he is definitely a threat there.
BTW Collovini, I Think you have a great chance to win that parlay. In fact I would be surprised if you didn't.
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