These are my official Picks for UFC 112: (Note they are NOT necessarily my bets. Bets are below.)
Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565)
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575)
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335)
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190)
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139)
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550)
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245)
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165)
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170)
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200)
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305)
BETS (once again these represent actual bets):
Anderson Silva(-765) vs Demian Maia(+565): .18 units to win 1 unit
BJ Penn(-775) vs Frankie Edgar(+575) PASS
Matt Hughes(-435) vs Renzo Gracie(+335): 4.35 units to win 1 unit
Kendall Grove(+150) vs Mark Munoz(-190): .67 units to win 1 unit
Rafael Dos Anjos(+109) vs Terry Etim(-139: 1.39 units to win 1 unit
Alexander Gustafsson(+400) vs Phil Davis(-550): .25 units to win 1 unit
John Gunderson(+195) vs Paul Taylor(-245): .51 units to win 1 unit
Nick Osipczak(+135) vs Rick Story(-165): .74 units to win 1 unit
Damarques Johnson(+140) vs Brad Blackburn(-170): 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Matt Veach(-250) vs Paul Kelly(+200): 2.5 units to win 1 unit
Mostapha Al Turk(+245) vs Jon Madsen(-305): PASS
Total: Risking 12.29 units to win 9 units
- The Wise Guy
couldn't help but notice, 5 underdog bets, huh? two of them significant underdogs. should definitely be an exciting card to root for. good luck.
ReplyDeleteGood luck. I like how you have placed your bets. You need either all 4 favorites to win, or at least 1 dog.
ReplyDeleteI think it is almost certain that at least 1 dog will come through. Probably Kendall or Oscipczac.
I am still testing your system so I would make all the same bets and passes, except I would swap out DeMarques Johnson and Dos Anjos. So I would have 6 dogs, with only Veach and Hughes as favorites. I think I am going to lose.
yeah there are definitely more underdog bets on this card. That also means I am risking less though. If hughes and veach come through I only have to be like 50% right with the other picks to break even.
ReplyDeleteSometimes I have to use the pass to skip over a fight where the odds are just too crazy, like BJ/edgar. Blackburn/Damarques is another one I sort of wanted to pass on.
The good thing is, with all the big underdogs (maia, Gustafsson, gunderson, grove) I am only risking about 1.6 units combined. That means just getting 2 other fights right will more than cover it. And like The Scientist said, with 4 dogs there is a good chance one will win too, so then I am in even better shape.
can't wait to see what happens.
^^ yup. I am actually really pumped about this card. As a grappling fan, this card is awesome.
ReplyDeleteGood luck... I am out for the weekend.
Yeah I am pumped too. If I turn in another positive event I will be super stoked too.
ReplyDeleteSince I started the experiment, if all had been real bets I would be up 18.26 units, which is crazy for like 4 events. Now that they are real bets I sure hope that trend continues.
I don't forsee a big win on this event, since a lot of underdogs would have to come through, but I am hopeful that it will be a winning event. I think the chances are good.