So I have been talking a lot about switching my actual bets to the method I have been using for the experiment, and I finally decided to do it. So all of the picks listed below represent actual bets.
I don't actually expect to do too well on my picks for this card, but I didn't want to come in on a card that I knew I had a good chance of doing really well on. If I do decently on a card like this with several hard to call fights, it will be a good sign. Honestly I had a lot of trouble picking a few of these fights, so a break even night here would be good IMO.
Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): 3.15 units to win 1 unit
Jorge Rivera(+210) vs Nate Quarry(-260): 2.6 units to win 1 unitI don't actually expect to do too well on my picks for this card, but I didn't want to come in on a card that I knew I had a good chance of doing really well on. If I do decently on a card like this with several hard to call fights, it will be a good sign. Honestly I had a lot of trouble picking a few of these fights, so a break even night here would be good IMO.
Kenny Florian(-315) vs Takanori Gomi(+255): 3.15 units to win 1 unit
Roy Nelson(-295) vs Stefan Struve(+265): 6 units to win 2.03 units
Rafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): 1.69 units to win 1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .55 units to win 1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): 1.43 units to win 1 unit
Lucio Linhares(+405) vs Yushin Okami(-555) PASSRafael Oliveira(+139) vs Andre Winner(-169): 1.69 units to win 1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181) vs Ronnys Torres(-231): .55 units to win 1 unit
Nik Lentz(-143) vs Rob Emerson(+113): 1.43 units to win 1 unit
Caol Uno(+235) vs Gleison Tibau(-295): 2.95 units to win 1 unit
Dennis Siver(+170) vs Ross Pearson(-210): 2.1 units to win 1 unitCharlie Brenneman(+150) vs Jason High(-190): PASS
Gerald Harris(-155) vs Mario Miranda(+125): PASSRisking 20.47 units to win 9.03 units
The Nelson bet is disproportionally large, since I had already made that bet a while ago. It is also slightly below the current odds of around -325. Since I had extra units on Nelson I gave myself 3 passes for this card. I really think Okami is going to win, but those odds are so high I would have to bet on Linhares if I was going to touch that fight.
Let's see what happens!
-The Wise guy
I really think you are going to come out on top for sure with this card.
ReplyDeleteI think you might end up winning every bet.
ReplyDeleteI think Emerson has a good chance. I think Oliviera is live as well.
I am still playing along, for kicks:
Kenny Florian(-315): 3.15 units to win 1 unit
Jorge Rivera(+210): .47 units to win 1 unit
Roy Nelson(-295): 2.95 units to win 1 unit
Rafael Oliveira(+139): .71units to win 1 unit
Jacob Volkmann(+181): .55 units to win 1 unit
Rob Emerson(+113): .88 units to win 1 unit
Lucio Linhares(+405): .24 to win 1
Gleison Tibau(-295): 2.95 units to win 1 unit
Ross Pearson(-210): 2.1 units to win 1 unit
Jason High(-190): 1.9 to win 1
Mario Miranda(+125): .8 to win 1
hey, I sure hope you guys are right!
ReplyDeleteWinner/Oliveira was probably the toughest one for me. I think quarry will win too, but I don't really like the odds. Volkmann at least is a decent dog. I really do think Okami will win, but is way overvalued. He should be like -300 at worst, so if i didn't pass on that one i would have to throw down on Linhares.
The last two I just haven't seen enough of to be comfortable with.
Another bet I saw on bookmaker that caught my eye was the prop bet, Florian to win by decision at like +325. I don't do prop bets almost ever, but I do think there is a decent chance this will go to the judges, so it's not a bad play if that's your thing.
^ yeah, I think there is a good change it goes to decision. But I don't know because Florian "finishes fights"
ReplyDeleteI think Quarry is overvalued. I had a chance to think about that one... he couldn't KO Creduer or Sell, now he is -260 to KO Rivera?
I doubt Florian will KO Gomi, he may bust him up and submit him though. I think Gomi will lag behind in cardio too and just get solidly outworked for 3 rounds.
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah I do think Quarry is probably overvalued, but I just can't see Rivera winning, so I had to pick him. I don't like the odds though. He did come pretty close to finishing Creduer a few times though (although he almost got finished himself, too)