Internet is working right now, so I can post my UFC 113 bets:
Mauricio Rua(+152) vs Lyoto Machida(-192): PASS
Paul Daley(+205) vs Josh Koscheck(-255): 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Jeremy Stephens(+160) vs Sam Stout(-195): 3 units to win 1.54 units
Matt Mitrione(+105) vs Kimbo Slice(-105): 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Alan Belcher(-115) vs Patrick Cote(-115): 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Joe Doerkson(+385) vs Tom Lawlor(-485): 4.85 units to win 1 unit
Jonathan Goulet(+350) vs Marcus Davis(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
TJ Grant(+350) vs Johnny Hendricks(-450): 4.5 units to win 1 unit
Tim Hague(-240) vs Joey Beltran(+190): PASS
Mike Guymon(+190) vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida(-240); 2.4 units to win 1 unit
John Salter(+135) vs Jason Macdonald(-165): 1.65 units to win 1 unit
TOTAL: 25.6 units to win 10.59 units
The Stout and Mitrione bets were made much earlier. The odds listed are the odds on them at the time the bet was placed. The odds on their opponents are the current odds. The odds have gotten slightly worse on both of them since the bets were made, so I'm glad I jumped on them then.
It is an interesting card because I am choosing all favorites. It is VERY unlikely that the favorites will win EVERY single fight, but individually I can't pick against them in any matchup. So we'll see what happens. because I am choosing a lot of heavy favorites I am more likely to get them right, but I will also lose more if(when) I get any of them wrong.
I think Lyoto will win what I see as a 50/50 matchup. obviously the value is with Rua in that case, but I think Lyoto will win so I'm not going to bet it. Koscheck still has me worried, but if he uses proper strategy it will be a rout, and the odds have come down a lot so I went with him.
I still can't see Stout losing, so get your money in on that one, the line is still a steal. Same with Cote. Although my confidence isn't as high as with Stout, I really feel strongly he will win and he is almost even money.
Lawlor, Hendricks, and Davis are all large favorites, but they should be. I can't see them losing their fights. A loss from any of the three will put a big dent in my earnings for the night, however.
should be a fun night of fights. Can't wait!
- The Wise Guy
I think the value is with Grant at the current line. Salter is going to give JMac problems.
ReplyDeleteI think you bounce back on this card.
I'm hopeful, but I'd rather not bet on so many large favorites. Like I said though, individually I think they will win their fights.
ReplyDeletein hindsight I should have taken Hague and passed on Hendricks.
ReplyDeleteI do think Hendricks will win, but the odds are uncomfortably bad. Oh well we'll see what happens.
Scientist, you still gonna play along? What would your bets be?
ReplyDeleteI would never bet on Stout. The guy has pillows for hands, Lauzon was gassed and battered and still he couldn't finish him. Stephens will have 15 minutes to land one of those big uppercuts. I still think Stout wins, but it's not worth the risk.
ReplyDeleteI made a parlay with Lawlor and a soccer game (already won that). Doerksen's time is way past. Lawlor looked great against Simpson, sharp boxing, above-average wrestling. Style-wise it's a nightmare for Joe, who is basically a poor man's Dean Lister, he's on par with him in the standup game, but way below him on the ground.
I also layed one unit on Davis, that fight is a wrap.
I'm really undecided on the Kimbo fight. Mitrione's chin is unknown; his gas tank looked awful on the TUF house, but ok on the Marcus Jones fight. He hits hard and is very accurate. Kimbo's chin is suspicious, his gas tank is good and he outboxed Nelson witch is a competent boxer. In my opinion, if this fight goes to the 3rd round Kimbo takes it. What's your opinion guys?
I also put one unit on Cote. He's a superior striker and wrestler than Belcher, wich means trouble for the guy. The only thing that makes me nervous about this fight is Cote's bum knee. If I was Belcher I would give Cote a Shogun Special, landing leg kicks all night to Cote's knee and hoping for it to pop out. I'm still very confident on this fight.
ReplyDeleteAlso, if anyone of you guys want to check another opinion before placing your bets, I created a blog to record my picks.
ReplyDeletehttp://mymmapicks.blogspot.com
I'm still in the black after six months of gambling and most importantly, after UFC 112. Hope to see you guys there.
not sure about you, but these last two events have me considering betting strictly dogs. I've been following your trend for the past couple months and making hypothetical bets. The trouble with betting to win one unit is that if one big favorite loses, you're virtually guaranteed a loss overall. sorry to see your night went less than stellar. hopefully it turns around in the future. on a side note, I took your mitrione suggestion at +135 a while back, which obviously turned out well. good luck bud.
ReplyDeleteTerrible night, after 10+ years following this sport, I still can't see any consistent pattern that can be applied to betting safely. Well, I guess after the last two events, we can only expect a good night on the next.
ReplyDeleteSorry bro. These last few card have been difficult.
ReplyDeleteI am personally going to go back oto playing a lot tighter. Just betting really favorable match-ups.
Collovini, I disagree. I think you can consistently bet winners if you pick fights with as few variables as possible and where you know what the battle is going to be in the fight. I don't like fights like Rua/Machida, because we don't know what the battle will be. Case in point, Machida came out and wanted to grapple with Rua.
ReplyDeleteI look for fights where we know pretty well what the fight is about. Will he get the takedown or won't he? That sort of thing. And then look for fights where there is a clear advantage in imposing his gameplan. Like Kos/Daley. We knew what he wanted to do, and we knew that he was probably going to be able to do it. Or another recent example was Shields/Hendo. We knew what that was about. Could Shields take Hendo down. In that case, most of us guessed wrong, but we knew what it was about.
Chaos,
ReplyDeleteI didn't see your comment... I gave up on betting every fight. I am actually going the other way. Trying to get back to my roots of picking fewer fights and more winners. I have been getting loose lately.
mma_scientist, my point about mma not having a clear pattern for gambling safely is based on examples such as the Shields-Hendo fight (on paper, a heavy-handed olympic wrestler is the recipe to beat Shields, but in the real world, very few people could see the obvious flaws in Hendo's takedown defense. Even Wand took Henderson down in their first fight. He seems to be very vulnerable to freestyle type takedowns). Today, I'm getting to a very similar conclusion as yours: in mma, you have to bet few, specific fights, which was the way I was winning a decent amount of money over the last year. The last couple of events, I broke a few of my own rules, made some ginormous parlays, bet on fights I wasn't so sure about, and the result was catastrophic.
ReplyDelete^^ it is easy to get loose, which is what I have done also. I feel like I need to bet on every card. There is still a lot of opportunity out there, and we still get the occasional very wrong line.
ReplyDelete