I currently have 2 bets for UFC 119:
Mirko Crocop(+185) vs Frank Mir: 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Melvin Guillard(-160) vs Jeremy Stephens: 2 units to win 1.25 units
Risking 3 units to win 3.1 units
Crocop's line has gotten even better, and is around +200 right now. You may want to wait even longer and see if it gets better. With his good takedown defense, and Mir's habit of wilting when he gets hit, Mirko absolutely has value at these odds.
I don't think anybody at lightweight but Edgar, Penn, and maybe one or two others can straight-up box with Melvin. Stephens has good hands and good power, but he doesn't have the same speed and crispness that Guillard does. He also seems to be slightly more of a brawler, and gets hit more, even when fighting non really strikers like Lauzon. I think it will be an entertaining, competetive fight, but I don't think Stephens will threaten Melvin at all. Even if he tries to take it down, Guillard has solid wrestling and good takedown defense.
That's all for now.
-The Wise Guy
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