I have action on 4 fights this time, which is more than usual.
First the, anchor bet of the evening:
Dennis Siver(-130) vs Matt Wiman: 2 units to win 1.54 units
I think this will be similar to Siver's fight with Sotiropolous. I think Wiman probably has better wrestling, so he will probably have better success getting the fight down occasionally, but I don't think he has the top control to keep Siver there. His Standup is good, but I think Siver's is better.
Next up are my more speculative bets:
Chris Leben(+145) vs Wanderlei Silva: .5 units to win .7 units
Both of these guys have a similar style, but I think Leben's chin wins out over Wanderlei's at this stage of the game.
Tito Ortiz(+400) vs Ryan Bader: .25 units to win 1 unit
Honestly, I think Tito loses this fight. Sadly I think he is pretty much done. Which is unfortunate, because I have grown to like him. That being said, he has never been dominated, and even in his string of losses over the past several years, he has shown that he is no pushover; still top level, just not quite good enough. +400 is too good for a fighter like tito, in a fight he will be motivated to win, against an opponent who may be rattled or fight scared in his return fight after suffering his first real loss in dominating fashion. It's a small speculative bet, nothing more.
Brad Tavares(+195) vs Aaron Simpson: .5 units to win .976 units
No in depth analysis here; I just think Tavares is being undervalued. He hits hard enough to do what Leben did to Simpson, and He will no doubt be working his takedown defense for this fight. I think he's a live dog here.
Overall for UFC 132: Risking 3.25 units to win 4.216 units
Should be an entertaining night of fights. Here's to continuing our streak of positive events!
-The Wise Guy
No comments:
Post a Comment