UFC 131

First of all, as you know Clay Guida came through for us last weekend BOOYAH! Of Course he did.

+3.8 Units: BOOK IT.

Now on to UFC 131,

In the main event we have Junior Dos Santos vs Shane Carwin. I have never been so sure a fight would not go the distance. Both are huge dudes with huge power. The only areas where carwin has an advantage in my mind is wrestling. Probably punching power too, but JDS certainly has enough power to knock out carwin, he just might not have the Dim Mak death touch KO power that Carwin seems to have. JDS better technical striking, more diverse striking( Has Carwin EVER thrown a kick?), way better cardio, and his Jiu jitsu is going to be fine. We haven't gotten to see his takedown defense tested yet, but I imagine he has been training that very hard for the past few weeks. The way I see it, unless Carwin finishes this in the first round, Dos Santos is going to win. I think JDS will be ready for a first round barrage, and will outwork Carwin with speed, footwork, technical strikes, and will pepper him with shots from the outside while circling to avoid the take down. Expect copious uppercuts to thwart the takedown attempts, as we saw in his fight against Roy Nelson. By the second round I think Carwin will have slowed significantly, maybe not as bad as in the Brock fight, but it will still be noticeable) and at that point JDS's technique advantage will become even more apparent. It is very likely that Carwin is planning to take it a little slower in the first round to make sure there isn't a repeat of the Lesnar fight. This will make it even MORE likely that JDS's technique will shine through, as I think they only way for him to win is a gong-n-dash style barrage attack where he forces JDS to brawl .

Carwin HAS to get the knockout to win, JDS doesn't. I don't see Carwin having the gas to win a 3-round top control decision. so he either finishes it early, or JDS wins. JDS ALSO has the ability to finish it early however. I think this weighs the fight in favor of JDS.

JDS(-180) vs Shane Carwin: 3 units to win 1.67 units

My other bet for the card is a small dog bet on Nunes over Florian. I think Florian will win, but for being such a fast, successful, aggressive, fighter, I think he is being undervalued. Especially when considering this is Florian's first fight at featherweight. Nunes showed the ability to stop Mike Brown's takedowns, so if he can do the same to Florian I think he stands a solid chance in a standup war; more than the bookies are giving him anyway. I am a huge Florian fan and really hope he wins, but I am not going to pass up value when I see it. This way I can't lose! either Florian wins, and I'm happy, or he loses and at least I get an extra unit to soften the pain.

Diego Nunes(+240)vs Kenny Florian: .5 units to win 1.2 units


I'm rooting for Maia in his fight against Munoz, but for the life of me I just can't decide how the fight is going to go. It depends on a lot of things we just won't know until fight time. How good has Maia's standup gotten, will he be able to take it to the ground at all, will Munoz go for any takedowns of his own, can Maia pin him against the cage, etc. Should be an interesting fight. Close odds, so worth a bet if you think you have a clear vision of how this fight will go.

I like Eves Edwards over Stout. As a slight dog Edwards has value there. Other than that, I don't see any other lines worth jumping on. I do see a lot of exciting fights! Should be a good card!

-The Wise Guy