ARB bet and lines to watch.

Arbitrage Opportunity

If you went with my bet on Marquardt @ -275, you now have an opportunity to place an arbitrage bet on Sonnen. Because Sonnen's underdog odds at +300 now exceed our initial bet of -275, if you place a bet of the appropriate amount you can make a guaranteed profit.

The guaranteed profit will be only a fraction of a unit, but you will make money no matter who wins the fight. I recommend you take advantage of this opportunity if:

1. Your unit size is large. If your units like 100 dollars or more, a fraction of a unit will still be a decent outcome. If your unit size is small like 5 bucks, then a fraction of a unit may not be enticing enough to you to attempt.
2. You are not totally convinced in your pick. If you are very sure that your original pick is solid (Marquardt in this case) you may want to stick with the chance of making a larger profit even though its not guaranteed. If you are in the least bit unsure about your pick, go ahead and take the guaranteed money. Remember that even tiny positive results add up huge over the long run.

I will say that in this case I will probably not arb out on Marquardt, since I think his chances of winning are more like 85 or 90%, and the return will be over 1 unit. As opposed to a 100% chance of getting like .1 units. Your call.



Lines to Watch

I will also be watching the lines on Frank Trigg and Gabriel Gonzaga. Trigg is currently at +102. I see this fight as basically 50/50, with maybe a slight edge to Trigg. So if he gets to +115 or so I will probably put a unit on him.

I have pretty much decided to place one unit on Gonzaga against JDS, but I am waiting because his line seems to slowly be getting better. He started at about +215 and is now +222. I will wait til closer to fight time and hope his line gets even better.

I am also watching the Nogueira line closely. It has been dropping and he is currently at -124. If he gets significantly closer to even I will probably put a unit on him as well.

I am just watching these lines for now. I will post any bet I make.




- The Wise Guy