well we lost a unit on the UFC fight night. The Lentz fight was a push after a point was deducted, and silva lost to leben. I have ot hand it to Leben he executed an intelligent game plan. and controlled the fight on the ground. I figured he would get drawn into a brawl as he normally does. If that were the case he would have had a good chance of losing.
So not great results, but no big deal. We'll get back to our winning ways with UFC 109.
As a reminder, here our my bets so far for UFC 109:
Randy Couture (-385) vs Mark Coleman: 6 units to win 1.56 units
Nate Marquardt (-275) vs Chael Sonnen 3 units to win 1.09 units
I have heard a lot of people talking about the Couture fight, saying the Coleman has value as an underdog. At the odds I got my bet in, I think Couture is the right play. I do think this will appear to be a close fight though, but I think if it happened 20 times, every one would be a close fight with Couture winning. The only ways coleman could win would be a KO, or control for 3 rounds for a decision. the odds of a KO are there but are less than what it would take to make couture a bad bet.
The only other way coleman to win would be 3 roudn decision. simply put he just doesn't have the striking or the gas tank to win 2 rounds against couture. I think its very possible, if not likely, that the hammer may take the first round with a take down or two, but I just cannot envision him being able to damage couture too badly from top, or being able to continue executing his game effectively for more than 1.5 rounds. After that I think Couture will be able to make coleman look really bad.
I have run this fight over and over again in my head, and other than a flash KO I can't see it going any other way. But I guess we'll find out!
- The Wise Guy
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