I have 3 picks for tomorrow: an anchor bet on the main event and two smaller dog bets.
Jon Fitch (-210) vs BJ Penn: 3 units to win 1.43 units
Dennis Siver (+285) vs George Sotiropoulos: .5 units to win 1.43 units
Jorge Rivera(+275) vs Michael Bisping: .5 units to win 1.38 units
Total: Risking 4 units to win 4.24 units
In the main event I think BJ Penn is being overvalued due to popularity, and a general recognition of his skills. His recent performances (at lightweight, no less) offer no reason why the odds should be this close for this fight (at welterweight) against one of the most consistent performers in the entire sport. Jon Fitch is basically tailor made to beat BJ Penn. Unless Fitch foolishly tries to box with Penn for the entire fight, he will win. I imagine the first round being competitive, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see BJ win it. but despite him being 'in the best shape of his life' (as usual...) he will not be able to keep up with Fitch's pace for 3 rounds. Fitch by unanimous decision.
BJ Penn is live against anybody, but Fitch at -200 against anybody at welterweight (not named GSP) is a line you want to have some money on.
George Sotiropoulos is a beast and has been blazing through some stiff competition in on his way to a 7-0 record in the UFC he is for REAL. I DO think he will win this fight. However, Siver has the style to give him problems. We saw George get knocked out on The Ultimate Fighter, and Siver has some of the best kickboxing in the division. He also has great TD defense and underrated grappling. George's takedowns are solid but not crazy-good, but positional grappling is phenomenal, and if (when, lets be honest) this fight gets to the ground he will be putting Siver in tough spots. For almost 3 to 1 I am willing to throw a bit on the chance Siver can sprawl and brawl his way to a split decision or perhaps get a big KO.
In the Rivera / Bisping fight, I see bisping winning, but Rivera hits hard and has heart, and could give Bisping trouble simply by staying in the fight and always pushing forward. Bisping occasionally exhibits bad habits as well, like circling to his opponent's power hand, and that could get him into trouble with somebody with decent power. Overall I think Bisping is the more well-rounded opponent, and will probably win a decision. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take this fight to the ground midway through round 1, and keep doing it for the rest of the fight (which would be the best gameplan, IMO. That being said, I see no reason why Rivera should be an almost 3 to 1 dog.
I am betting that at least one of the two dog bets will come through. There are ALWAYS some upsets on every card, so the key is to pick fights where you see a specific way the upset COULD happen, and happen to also be giving good odds. I think both of my dog bets fall into this category.
I don't see lines I like really for any other fight. Pearson/fisher should be interesting, as they are almost identical fighters. I think Fisher takes more hits and shows damage more, which may get him the butt-end of a decision. I do think he has the better ground game, but I doubt this fight will go there.
I think Noke, Lytle, Gustaffson, and Ring will win.
Zhang seems maybe overvalued for his debut. SOmetimes people appear like monsters in other orgs, but it is because the competition isn't as good. Even the low-level UFC fighters are pretty damn good, and Zhang went 1-1 in the WEC. Only play here would be a dog bet on Reinhardt.
UPDATE: You know, when I read 'reinhardt' for some reason I was thinking of somebody else. When I saw his picture I was like, wait a sec, that's the guy that got beat by Lauzon in like 30 seconds. I checked his record again and although impressive on the surface, most of his opponents have losing records. At least the fight is 145, since he is undersized for 155, but still, I wouldn't put a dog bet here guys.
Hunt is just an enigma. No reason why he should be sucking quite as bad as he has been, so who knows how this will go. I assume Tuscherer will win based on Hunt's last few performances, but I have never really been that impressed with "The Crowbar" either, so I wouldn't put anything on him at these odds.
Anyway, should be a good night of fights, with a lot of free prelims on facebook and ION. Thanks Dana!
-The Wise Guy
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