Hey all,
I haven't updated in a while on account of being stuck in the middle of the desert in Kuwait, but I wanted to get on here really quick and post my bets for 114
113 was brutal, and I'll update on that later, but I wanted to get this post up before the event tomorrow.
Just the down and dirty, here are my bets (the Rampage bet was made a while ago that's why it is not bet to win 1)
Rampage(-122): 2 units to win 1.64 units
Dan Miller(+150): .66 units to win 1 unit
Diego Sanchez(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Amir Sadollah(-130): 1.3 units to win 1 unit
Efrain Escudero(-515): 5.15 units to win 1 unit
Melvin Guillard(-345): 3.45 units to win 1 unit
Cyrille Diabate(+275): .36 units to win 1 unit
Aaron Riley(-205): 2.05 units to win 1 unit
Jesse Forbes(-162): 1.62 units to win 1 unit
Todd Duffee: PASS
Antonio Rogerio Noguiera: PASS
All in all, 18.65 units to win 9.64 units
I like that finally there is a card that isn't all HUGE favorites. Really only two big favorites that I am betting on (Efrain and Melvin)
I think Cane will probably win, but I think Cyrille is a good deal at those odds. He has good stand up and Cane will likely stand with him. Escudero I don't like the odds, but I can't see him losing. Haven't seen enough of Duffee, and the odds are too steep on Nogueira.
Can't wait to watch the fights!
- The Wise Guy
Until now, I placed two bets: 5 units on Bisping to win 3 units, and 2.5 units on Rampage-Evans will go the distance. I really can't see Miller pulling the upset, Bisping's carrer is defined by him looking great against one-dimensional submission fighters.
ReplyDeleteA deeper analysis can be seen on my blog:
http://mymmapicks.blogspot.com
Sorry for your bad night brow. I made a huge profit with 114, 7 units straight to my pocket. My strategy from now on is to bet few, specific ones that I'm very confident. I wish you more luck next time.
ReplyDeleteyeah It happens. I have had a few bad ones in a row.
ReplyDeleteSeems like I just can't pick em right to save my life.
Doesn't help that with my current location I can't follow or research the fights as well as I normally do.
If my quick calculation was right 114 only cost me 2 units. So sucky, but not that bad in the scheme of things.
ReplyDeleteyou and me both... I have been getting killed. I am going to tighten up a lot.
ReplyDeleteI think I am only going to bet up to -250.
yeah I am going to avoid the large favorites too, unless it is a total lock.
ReplyDelete