Paul Daley is a very dangerous fighter, but he is way too one-dimensional for somebody like Diaz. The only reason the lines are this close is because Diaz has a tendency to try standing with everybody. He has a great chin and even if he gets rocked, he has a great ability to grab subs even still. See the fight with Gomi.
Diaz just has way more ways to win this fight. Daley would basically HAVE to get the knockout to win here. It's what he does, but I think nick is too much for him here.
Nick Diaz(-215) vs Paul Daley: 3 units to win 1.4 units
I think Melendez will will a UD, and Jardine will probably get knocked out (again). I hope fancy pants takes aoki, but he was in too many bad spots last fight against somebody who isn't nearly the sub artist that aoki is. I think he gets submitted here. with Aoki at -225 you may want some action there. I think the line is about right, with maybe a little value for Aoki.
That's all for now. Enjoy the fights!
-The Wise Guy
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