UFC 129 - GSP vs Shields

Shields is an excellent fighter, and his record proves that. Unbeaten in something like 6 years. THe problem is, styles make fights, as they say. And I think GSP is tailor-made to beat Jake Shield's style. GSP has much better striking, and his elite level wrestling should allow him to keep the fight standing and ruin SHields on the feet. Shields has world-class grappling, and has shown an ability to control some excellent fighters. But I think GSP can do enough to at least stay alive if he does somehow end up on his back. Shields couldn't catch kampmann in or Henderson in his last couple fights, and I think GSP has sub defense that is on par with them at least. The cardio will also be a major issue. GSP has the best in the business, AND this is a five round fight. Shields tends to fade even in 3 round fights, so GSP will eat him alive in the championship rounds.

In fact I feel like GSP will be able to end his string of decision victories and get the finish in the 4th or 5th round, via TKO.

Although the odds are steep with GSP at -450, I can't pass on what is such an obviously bad style match-up for shields.

my bets:

GSP(-450) vs Jake Shields: 5 units to win 1.11 units

Randy Couture(+280) vs Lyoto Machida: .5 units to win 1.4 units

Randy has shown to be very good at finding ways to beat people's styles, so he can't be discounted in this fight. Machida is faster and has better standup, and good takedown defense, but I don't see why randy should be almost a 3:1 dog here. I think there is a decent chance he can either find a way to close the distance without being counterpunched to death, or win a decision simply by pushing the pace. Like it or not, there will likely be an unconscious 'handicap' given to Randy by the judges due to the fact that he is older, and Machida has what appears to some to be a timid style, with him sometimes 'running away'. Which means if this goes to anything other than an obvious decision, Couture has a chance to steal it. That fact alone makes +280 on Couture an interesting decision.

I don't really see any other lines I like that much. I think Nate Diaz will win, and he is like +115. I think Hominick is undervalued. I can't make up my mind about the Brilz/Matyushenko or Henderson/Bocek fights. If I HAD to pick I would go with Matyushenko and Henderson, but I am not very confident in those picks. I would stay away from betting on those fights unless you are seeing something I am missing.

Should be a good night of fights! for the first time ever, ALL the fights are being shown, either on facebook, Spike, or the Pay per-view. And don't forget the earlier start time of 9pm EST.

Until next time,

- The Wise Guy