First of all, our evil fascist government has seized and shut down Bookmaker.com (along with all the poker sites) where I do all my MMA bets. I don't know which other sites are still up and running. The euro Bodog site still appears to be operational, so that is where I am getting the lines from for today. Obviously I will have no actual bets for this card since Bookmaker was shut down.
Rampage(-270) vs Hamill(+210)
Rampage is my pick to win here, but you can't take him at these odds, not after how he performed in the Rashad fight. I think he will be more engaged in this fight, and hopefully in better shape, but there is a definite possibility that Hamill wins a boring UD. I wouldn't put action on this fight, as I don't see a clear path the fight will take, but a small bet on Hamill wouldn't be a bad idea.
Although I think Rampage wins by stuffing the takedowns, and controlling the standup with faster, more technical striking, and more power.
I like Kendall Grove at close odds against Tim Boetsch. He has more range, better cardio, and is very dangerous off his back if the Barbarian gets him down. I see Kendall getting past Boetsch's slow, stiff standup and actually hurting him on the feet, before following him to the ground and getting the submission win. This would be my bet for the night.
Kendall Grove(-140) vs Tim Boetsch(+110): 2 units to win 1.43 units
I am leaning towards Big Country Roy Nelson(+110) in his fight with Frank Mir(-140), but Frank Mir is so unpredictable. He either looks invincible, or like a total pushover. Hard to say where the fight will go also. I think Nelson has better technical standup, but less power. Hard to say who will rule the clinch. Neither are super good with takedowns, but both are decent at defending them, so other than from the clinch, I don't see this fight playing out too much on the ground, so I give a slight edge to Big Country. I would want him to be slightly more of a dog to bet it though. If you can get him for +160 or better I would take the plunge for a unit. He is my pick to win though, I just don't have a clear path for the fight in my head, which always makes it hard to bet on.
I think Thiago Alves (-250) should win, but Rick Story(+190) has confounded me constantly and won every time I bet against him. I don't think he can do what Fitch or GSP did, but he will sure be trying. I officially pick Thiago to win by UD after frustrating Story with excellent TD defense, and brutal standup.
-The Wise Guy
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